Originally Posted by Rob_Floyd (Post 13565649)

It has been confirmed that Nate will be facing tomorrow night's winner. How do you see these potential fights playing out?

Originally Posted by Kittikasem (Post 13566344)

Nate Diaz vs Frankie Edgar

Originally Posted by Primate (Post 13566478)

I'm inclined to disagree.

I'd see this similar to Edgar/BJ 2 or Condit/Nick. Frankie is fast enough and active enough to frustrate Diaz standing up, he'd be in and out faster than Diaz could react. Diaz needs a much more stationary target to unload his combos, and if he does start to land Frankie is competent enough to take Diaz down, secure the top position and survive once he's there. I'm not saying this as an absolute, but I think Frankie would take a fairly close decision.

I don't think this is as clear cut as a fight with Hendo, but I'd still be picking Fredgar.

Originally Posted by Primate (Post 13566478)

I disagree here for the most part as well. While I think you're absolutely right that Ben is a different animal from Rory MacDonald, I still think he takes this comfortably. I'd see it playing out very similar to Hendo/Miller. Ben would out wrestle and control Diaz on the ground for significant portions of the fight, and put some GnP on him to hurt him. Bendo would take a clear UD.

Originally Posted by Kittikasem (Post 13566553)

I don't see the speed difference being as decisive as it was between Frankie and a BJ on the downturn, or between Condit and Nick. I think Nate is reasonably fast (faster than Nick), not as fast as Frankie obviously, but I don't see a yawning chasm between them that will decide the fight. Frankie's speed advantage in the standup is negated to a large extent by Diaz's reach and length. If Diaz employs a good, stiff, regular jab it could make him a difficult target for Frankie to land on. This depends on whether Diaz fights smart and fights tall of course, if he just keeps stepping to Frankie with his hands down then you're right, he could get burned for speed by Frankie's in-out movements. But it being a title shot, I think Nate will fight the right way, and work hard to keep Frankie on the end of those long punches.

Something I think you are overlooking is this: IMO, Frankie's standup is (for me) far superior to Gray Maynard's, but because Frankie doesn't have a great chin he was still getting badly hurt whenever he was getting clipped in exchanges (exchanges he was almost always winning when not hurt). I think it's foolish to think that someone Nate's size who punches as often and as aggressively as him isn't going to hurt Frankie at some point. And there is absolutely ZERO chance of Frankie hurting Nate IMO. So this will be a big factor in the fight as I see it.

I definitely disagree that Frankie will be able to control Diaz after taking him down (which I think you imply by saying he will 'secure' top position and survive). All I can say to this is that I do not believe that will be the case - at all. Edgar will not be 'securing' top position on Diaz, he may get flash takedowns, but he will not be controlling Nate IMO. And even if he somehow does, I bet Nate does more damage with strikes off his back than Edgar does via GnP.



This would be a very interesting fight, that could go either way. I am still backing Diaz because I think he is really "in the zone" at 155 just now, looking so strong and dominant and driven, but Bendo is a special athlete and could very well beat him, I consider this a pick 'em but if I'm betting I go with Diaz.

Weirdly, I can see Frankie winning tonight so I think Nate will get the easier fight for him of these two.

Originally Posted by Kittikasem (Post 13566553)

I don't see the speed difference being as decisive as it was between Frankie and a BJ on the downturn, or between Condit and Nick. I think Nate is reasonably fast (faster than Nick), not as fast as Frankie obviously, but I don't see a yawning chasm between them that will decide the fight. Frankie's speed advantage in the standup is negated to a large extent by Diaz's reach and length. If Diaz employs a good, stiff, regular jab it could make him a difficult target for Frankie to land on. This depends on whether Diaz fights smart and fights tall of course, if he just keeps stepping to Frankie with his hands down then you're right, he could get burned for speed by Frankie's in-out movements. But it being a title shot, I think Nate will fight the right way, and work hard to keep Frankie on the end of those long punches.

Something I think you are overlooking is this: IMO, Frankie's standup is (for me) far superior to Gray Maynard's, but because Frankie doesn't have a great chin he was still getting badly hurt whenever he was getting clipped in exchanges (exchanges he was almost always winning when not hurt). I think it's foolish to think that someone Nate's size who punches as often and as aggressively as him isn't going to hurt Frankie at some point. And there is absolutely ZERO chance of Frankie hurting Nate IMO. So this will be a big factor in the fight as I see it.

I definitely disagree that Frankie will be able to control Diaz after taking him down (which I think you imply by saying he will 'secure' top position and survive). All I can say to this is that I do not believe that will be the case - at all. Edgar will not be 'securing' top position on Diaz, he may get flash takedowns, but he will not be controlling Nate IMO. And even if he somehow does, I bet Nate does more damage with strikes off his back than Edgar does via GnP.

Originally Posted by KERRIGAN (Post 13566715)

This really was a superb analysis of what would almost surely be the case for either Bendo or Frankie against Nate Diaz.

The only place where I would quibble with you, is that you don't appear to have acknowledged just how much trouble Nate Diaz's boxing will give Bendo.

Originally Posted by Kittikasem (Post 13566344)

Nate Diaz vs Frankie Edgar

Diaz TKO's Frankie, 100%. This fight would surprise people by being a surprisingly convincing win for Diaz. Frankie's boxing is good, but in Diaz he'd be meeting an equally good combo-puncher but with superior power and a superior chin. Diaz is aggressive enough on the ground and good enough in the scramble that it doesn't matter if Edgar gets the odd takedown, Diaz will either force him to defend subs or just get straight back to his feet. And when Diaz lands the decisive punch that has Frankie tottering around the cage, he will not gas like Maynard, Diaz will finish.


Nate Diaz vs Ben Henderson

This would be a closer fight for sure. Although I disagree with those saying that it'd play out the exact same as Diaz vs Rory MacDonald - it wouldn't. Rory is significantly bigger, heavier and longer than Bendo, Bendo will not find it anywhere near as easy to throw and control Nate as Rory did. Also, I think Bendo is more confident in his standup than Rory is, so this fight would (for the first couple of rounds) be a more standup-based fight. The thing is, I see Nate gradually hurting Ben and asserting his superiority in the fight by round 3, and it'll be at that point when Bendo starts going for takedowns and trying to wrestle his way to a win. This will make the last two rounds closer, but I'd still back Nate to either edge a narrow points decision or get a late TKO or sub. The way Nate dominated the shit out of Jim Miller suggests to me he is a stronger, meaner dude just now than anyone else at 155, and I think he'll outfight Henderson over the course.

Originally Posted by SugarShane_24 (Post 13566810)

Off topic, all this talk about Diaz made me wonder how he would've done against BJ Penn.

Awesome match-up.

Originally Posted by Primate (Post 13566792)

For clarification, I didn't so much mean control, as simply end up on top, whether it be guard or some other place, I can see Frankie ending up in a superior position for the judges, holding it there long enough to gain points, and surviving to get back to the feet.

Nate's reach could obviously pose Frankie some major problems, but counting on Nate to fight smart isn't really the safest bet to make. I agree 100% that Frankie isn't gonna be hurting Diaz at all, but he could certainly frustrate him, the way he obviously had Maynard and Penn frustrated, hurt or otherwise.

The more I think about it, the more I'd like to see Diaz/Edgar, regardless of the outcome tomorrow.