I think Mosley will beat Alvarez
First of all, Mosley has much faster hands.
Second of all, if Mosley lands a right hand to the chin of Alvarez, Alvarez might need several minutes on the canvas to recouperate. We all saw little Jose Cotto have him wobbling across the ring.
Mosley is fast enough to land the one two on Alvarez regularly I think. This could actually even be over quite quickly.
Alvarez is a patient fighter but he does get caught and he can't afford to take one from Mosley, who is a good finisher. Pac and Mayweather are different class and Sergio Mora is a bit of a spoiler. If Shane comes in here and gives it a real go for a few rounds, we might see Alvarez looking very confused on the canvas while the referee counts to 10.