Originally Posted by Kittikasem
I don't see the speed difference being as decisive as it was between Frankie and a BJ on the downturn, or between Condit and Nick. I think Nate is reasonably fast (faster than Nick), not as fast as Frankie obviously, but I don't see a yawning chasm between them that will decide the fight. Frankie's speed advantage in the standup is negated to a large extent by Diaz's reach and length. If Diaz employs a good, stiff, regular jab it could make him a difficult target for Frankie to land on. This depends on whether Diaz fights smart and fights tall of course, if he just keeps stepping to Frankie with his hands down then you're right, he could get burned for speed by Frankie's in-out movements. But it being a title shot, I think Nate will fight the right way, and work hard to keep Frankie on the end of those long punches.
Something I think you are overlooking is this: IMO, Frankie's standup is (for me) far superior to Gray Maynard's, but because Frankie doesn't have a great chin he was still getting badly hurt whenever he was getting clipped in exchanges (exchanges he was almost always winning when not hurt). I think it's foolish to think that someone Nate's size who punches as often and as aggressively as him isn't going to hurt Frankie at some point. And there is absolutely ZERO chance of Frankie hurting Nate IMO. So this will be a big factor in the fight as I see it.
I definitely disagree that Frankie will be able to control Diaz after taking him down (which I think you imply by saying he will 'secure' top position and survive). All I can say to this is that I do not believe that will be the case - at all. Edgar will not be 'securing' top position on Diaz, he may get flash takedowns, but he will not be controlling Nate IMO. And even if he somehow does, I bet Nate does more damage with strikes off his back than Edgar does via GnP.
For clarification, I didn't so much mean control, as simply end up on top, whether it be guard or some other place, I can see Frankie ending up in a superior position for the judges, holding it there long enough to gain points, and surviving to get back to the feet.
Nate's reach could obviously pose Frankie some major problems, but counting on Nate to fight smart isn't really the safest bet to make. I agree 100% that Frankie isn't gonna be hurting Diaz at all, but he could certainly frustrate him, the way he obviously had Maynard and Penn frustrated, hurt or otherwise.
The more I think about it, the more I'd like to see Diaz/Edgar, regardless of the outcome tomorrow.