I got tired of always having to write out an analysis for this fight, so I just wanted to make a thread, so I don't have to anymore
Here's why and how I think Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez. I'm just taking my old breakdown and adding more details to it and new things I learned from watching Sergio.
The way I see Floyd fighting and frustrating Sergio is by coming forward with his high guard and catching and neutralizing Sergio's jab while he tries to establish his jab. It's hard to out jab a southpaw who is taller than you (Ortiz) but if Sergio keeps his hands down, then you can land easy. Sergio always drops his hands by his side after he throws his jab and even Chavez Jr was able to counter over it. Sergio has a great jab, but dropping down to your waist after you throw it is an awful idea vs Mayweather.
I see Floyd maybe getting caught a few times in the first few rounds from Sergio countering him from weird angles, while Floyd tries attack him. Barker had success because he didn't give Sergio much to counter and when he did throw, he would step back and also bring his hands back quick and high enough for him not to get countered. Macklin also tried to use his reach and be economical with his punches to avoid Sergio countering him.
I think Floyd will feint Sergio into moving the way he wants whole his hands are down and then follow up with a lead right. He'll also make sure to get out the way and pot shot to avoid counters like this
Sergio after a while may try to start leading more like he did with Barker, but Floyd won't stand still when he flurries. In the words of Money Mayweather - "You won't see him hitting me with that wild shit." When Floyd is in his high guard, he still makes sure he can retreat quickly with his feet. So combos like this WILL NOT
be landing on Floyd. Floyd isn't like Dzinzurik or Barker when using his high guard, because he uses much movement than them.
Also Sergio despite Sergio being the bigger man, I think Floyd will get the better of him in the pocket and in clinches. Sergio showed some good stuff against Chavez, but defensively, he has no answer in the pocket. That's what sets fighters like Mayweather or Ward apart from other fighters in the pocket, is their defense. Plus even when against the ropes or up close, Sergio's answer to it would be to put one arm up to his face and keep the other hand down and sit there without rolling or slipping anything.
You guys can very much expect Floyd to be targeting Sergio's body in this fight. Macklin had plenty of success setting up his straight right to the body with the help of his feints and range finding jabs (similar to the gif shown above). After multiple rounds of establishing that punch, the right hand upstairs became very open for Macklin.
With all that said, I hope this fight takes place at 154 pounds in 2013