Re: Geale will beat Golovkin
Geale is chanceless against Golovkin. He does not have a small chance - he has no chance whatsoever.
Why? He holds no advantage in any section of a boxers arsenal. I base the analysis on the Sturm-Geale and the Golovkin-Proksa fights. Both fights are on Youtube - go and have a look.
Geale walks forward, seemingly preferring to do battle on the inside with Sturm. Sturm has seemingly few objections to this. While Sturm seems to be the stronger man, landing the more accurate and significant shots, Geale is more active. This largely sums up the fight over the whole 12 rounds, it was scored to Geale but really could have gone either way.
Golovkin walks forward trying to cut the ring. Proksa circles and potshots. It soon becomes apparent that he does not move well enough to avoid Golovkin’s jab or left hook, and later, the right. Proksa’s attacks does not at any point hurt Golovkin, and after round two his potshotting does not even cause Golovkin to blink. As Golovkin ups the pace in round three and onwards the fight turns into real beating.
The unfair comparison
Proksa retired Sebastian Sylvester in three rounds while Geale had to go 12 rounds to a split decision. Accordingly Golovkin will win easily over Geale. Not a fair comparison I would say. What happened? Sylvester had a major hole in his defense that only a Proksa-Martinez type of fighter could exploit. He keeps his guard up with both gloves really high while hunching forward. Proksa prefers to have his gloves around his waist to hide his angle of attack. The result was that while they are in the zone, Sylvester simply could not see Proksa’s gloves. Just dig out your old gloves from the closet and try it yourself! Sylvester fought blind, became totally demoralised and retired after three rounds.
The fair comparison
Geale walks forward a bit square without any final side-step or feint as he enters his opponents zone. This will be a major issue against Golovkin as he will not have any defensive advantage based on movement. Also, not possessing a fast, long or powerful jab means that he will have to take what Golovkin can dish out as he comes in. Based on what Geale did against Sturm, Geale will step on the gas and swarm Golovkin, Ouma used this to some effect in the early rounds of his fight against Triple-G. Big difference - Ouma was quick on his feet, Geale is not. This makes a Geale-Golovkin fight a slugging match between an active volume puncher with little power (52% KO ratio, several SD wins) and an active power puncher with 88% KO ratio and not an SD in sight. If Geale really tries he can stem the tide by swarming, but eventually he will tire and the outcome of this fight is not even remotely in doubt. The worst thing is that Geale has a decent chin, but hopefully the referee will save him before he is hospitalised like Ouma.
There is no disrespect for Geale in preferring the Mundine fight.