Re: Earnie Shavers vs. James Toney
I think the first Peter fight is a good template for how the fight goes down. Peter, like Shavers, was a crude, heavy handed swarmer who battered you to body and head with both hands and left his chin open to dry. Unlike Shavers, however, his chin was extremely solid, and his stamina was not nearly so much of a problem.
Toney, despite his lack of stoppages at heavy, could still crack plenty hard, and crack you right on your chin when you least expected it. He also had an almost preternatural ability to avoid right hands and land his own counter shots off the roll (pull counters). A big looping, not especially fast right hand like Shavers had would be glancing off the top of Toney's head all night, with Shavers getting cracked in the maw a split second later. Peter was getting the treatment all night, and finding it very hard to land his own shots in turn, having to rely more on greater workrate to get the job done.
Shavers could very well hurt Toney but even if he does it's no guarantee he finishes the job. There are too many instances of fighters surviving Shavers's much vaunted power shots and going on to win the fight (Lyle, Mercado, Berbick etc). On the other hand, if he gets hurt by Toney (and that's also quite possible) then history has shown us that he's probably not going to recover. Throw in the skill disparity and it's far more likely to assume that Toney gets the winning shot off first.
I'm going for Toney late rounds KO.