Originally Posted by Bogotazo
Have to disagree with your premise. In the 3rd fight, Manny was looking to counter JMM and likely expected him to come out throwing long strings of combinations. Roach said in the lead up to that fight "we're going to counter-punch the counter-puncher, Nacho knows it, and there's nothing he can do about it." When JMM circled laterally, took the angle away from Manny, and Manny didn't oblige him with more than a few short 1-1-2's, Marquez took the initiative and landed with lead rights and lefts while ducking under. When JMM initiates offensively on his terms and stays responsible, there's little Manny can do besides hope to land a right hook and pray the right hand he might be eating simultaneously isn't harder. And Manny isn't going to fool Juan into that, and he's not going to fight like Chris John.
Countering Juan and catching him may be an option, but it's only going to come about if Manny uses feints, lot's of offensive movements, and mixes up his offense better. But JMM leading will probably upset that and make Manny nervous in the second half again. He can lead better than Manny can counter, and he's not going to follow Pac on his own.
I feel at this stage of the career it will be a bit too hard for Pacquiao to change up his style and fight that way consistently for 12 rounds. I just don't see Manny being successful trying to back away and counter Marquez all night long. JMM is way too smart and knows how to get Pacquiao to come forward, which will fall in Marquez' plan.
The fight will be similar to the 3rd fight, but the only difference will be that both fighters will be much more cautious especially in the beginning. I expect Marquez to win clearly and the judges should give him the nod.
Marquez by UD or MD or SD