Originally Posted by TheManBearPig
I've given quite a few analysis's in previous threads but for the benefit of you and your fellow GGG **** jockeys, I'll give you another one.
Defense: Geale doesn't have the best defense but it is levels above those that GGG has fought, and GGG has shown that he struggles to beat fighters with semi decent defense not to mention his own defense being exposed by an average Proksa and shot blown up 154 fighter in Kassim Ouma. Geale has proven he has a good, solid chin as I have seen him take some ferocious punches over his career and not once have I seen him on weak legs. Those KD in his early fights were ALL from being off balance as he was a very wild fighter in his early career. Go watch the fights if you don't believe me. Not to mention Geale has fought fighters much faster than GGG (whose own speed is severely overrated by the nuffies on this forum). Golovkin's fights against Ouma and Proksa exposed the poor defense and while Geale is not a power puncher, but he is a very smart fighter who will make the best of the holes in GGG defense
Offense: Golovkin has, for the majority of his career, relied on his power to win the fight and is clearly reflected in his stalking/come forward style and his ability to cut off the ring against slower fighters (and blown-up welterweights). However, this style is not effective against someone who is able to set a fast pace in the ring and has much better footwork. Once again, the Ouma fight exposed these flaws as GGG was clueless till Ouma gassed from round 8 and it was then that Ouma had slowed down enough for GGG to put a beating on him.
Geale has an amazing workrate and amazing stamina and he will not gas after 8 rounds, he will keep going till the final bell rings. In all of his fights, I have not seen him gas once, even the Mundine fight which was an all out war where neither stopped throwing. Geales power is not the best in the division but it is often underrated and Golovkins chin has never been tested.
Provided Geale doesn't get caught early (which is the only way I see GGG beating him), his relentless volume punching will wear GGG down as he has never been put through 12 rounds of fast and hard paced boxing and he looked like he was on the point of collapse after 10 rounds in the Ouma fight. While it's unlikely that Golvkin will be KOed (in the later rounds) I would not rule it out if he looks like he did during the Ouma fight
The way any sensible and realistic boxing should see it, is a KO victory in the early rounds to GGG or a close but clear UD victory to Geale. Once again, we have to take into account the level of the opposition they have been fighting. Anyone sensible boxing fan (which rules out Leftsmarsh and all the other GGG **** jockeys) knows Geales win against Felix Sturm showed he is a very talented world class boxer has proven himself against other very good opposition. His TKO win over Roman Karmazan is better then any other win on GGG resume. In the event that they do fight (late 2013 according to my sources depending on his defense against Mundine and Soliman/Sturm) I will give the winner full credit.
Good post ManBearPig, nice to see you are able to contribute constructively.
There are several things I agree with in your analysis, Geale's stamina is indeed excellent and was perhaps the key factor in his win over Sturm.
His defense is however rather medium, partly because he is too occupied throwing shots himself which is also part of his defense - swarm his opponent with shots, making them think defensively. But he does get hit. Sturm landed several good shots right on his chin. Geale's chin held up very well however. Do keep in mind that Sturm's KO percentage is a lousy 38% - Sturm is simply not a powerful puncher.
Golovkin did also take shots from both Ouma and Proksa, but I have some doubts about the power. Ouma especially is a light puncher, 45% KO ratio, a tight defense and more or less punches to spoil, at least against Golovkin. Golovkin hurt by Ouma? Take a look at Golovkin's face after the fight, there is hardly any swelling whatsoever.You are however correct about the way Ouma exposed a weak area in Golovkin's way of fighting. Ouma was able to punch first and then get away before getting hit with something serious in return. I have watched the Ouma fight several times and it is only superficially close for the first couple of rounds. Once Golovkin gets to Ouma's body it is downhill from there.
Could Geale use the same tactics? I do not think so. He does not move fast enough and does not jab hard enough. Remember that he needs to win the fight, not just survive it. I believe Pirog jabs hard enough and Dirrel/Martinez moves fast enough but Geale...sorry.
Since you most likely have seen more Geale footage compared to me - do you have links to video that show be to be wrong? if yes - please upload. I believe the style matchup against Golovkin would not be in Geale's favour, Sturm was a much better fit.