Originally Posted by ButtBread
Thanks for the advice. I had major reservations because it just seems like somebody must know something. I googled Uchiyama, even in Japanese. The only articles I found were the usual stuff about how he's prepared and wants a KO. I watched everything I could find on Vasquez and he's a good fighter, but he's not in Uchiyama's class. Still felt like I must be missing something. So I'm a bit more at ease after your explanation.
I tried to find a record confirming the line movement for you, but all that I came up with is a post on the boxrec form (no, it's not my post, I don't post there). About 8 posts down he says Vasquez started at +850.
No problem. Just remember, Oddsmakers alway try to make the line 50/50 in their collective opinions. Odds reflect from skills, boxing politics (promoter and financial backing) and Hometown advantages. Not to say they do not ever mess up and overprice some favorite against some upset minded dogs but 90% of the time, they do not slip up. Knowing why a fighter is favorite is a major key of success in winning in sportsbetting. Sometimes they have the politics and hometown advantages but not the skills/intangibles, then you should bet the dogs. Khan for example, he got the popularity, the backing, above level skill but no chin so punish those odds. I had Garcia at +400 it was sweet.
-300 to -500 dips are the best bc anything over -300 is a solid favorite, and if it shift towards the underdog. It is time to drop some money on the favorite.
Be aware of traps too.