I'll start off first saying Donaire is an extraordinary fighter and has the potential to become an atg especially with the talent around his weight class. I actually like Donaire as a fighter when he's on his game. But with that said, I feel he loses to Rigondeaux. Ironically I think Rigo loses to Mares and Mares loses to Donaire. Donaire>Rigo>Mares>Donaire Styles makes fights.
Donaire is similar to his other pinoy companion, Pacquiao where they both strive on fighters bringing the fight to them. That's why he was itching to fight Arce for the longest and why he'd beat Mares. If you look at his fights with Narvrez or Mathebula, he didn't look as good. He even blamed his lack of performance on them being in defensive mode.
Unfortunately for Donaire, while they were in defensive mode, Mathebula was outlanding him 231 punches to Donaire's 151. Narvarez was even up on a good amount of people's scorecards after 5 rounds vs Donaire.
Nonito has relied heavily on his speed, power, size and footwork to win him a number of fights. Combine that with his counterpunching style, he used his opponent's aggression against them and punched at the openings THEY CREATED. The reason he struggled with Narvrez and Mathebula is because they didn't give Donaire any openings, and Donaire doesn't know how to create them himself. Against Rigo, he'll find this immensely more difficult.
Yes Rigo has a suspect chin (so all the people picking him to lose based off that can shut up now)
. But that won't matter in this fight. Donaire can knock out any opponent with one shot, but he wasn't able to do it vs Mathebula or Narvrez. Donaire is going to have too hard of a time just trying to hit Rigo.
Rigondeaux is going to go out there and present no openings to Donaire and use his foot/headmovements to avoid anything big from Donaire. Yes Donaire is fast, but he tenses up and loads often with his punches, especially when he's frustrated. Rigondeaux has over 300 fights and can identify these things and anticipate his attacks. While Donaire is leaping forward trying to land his left hook, Rigondeaux is going to be countering him with his famous straight left.
No fighter in the game today is better at timing the straight left than Rigo and he'll be able to do it every time Donaire tips him off. When Donaire is in front of a defensive fighter, he tends to get very basic. Little feinting, showboating, dropping his hands, no body punching, no jab. The only thing I wonder about in this fight is how Donaire is going to take Rigondeaux's punch. If he tries coming forward and dropping his hands like he did vs Mathebula, then he may get stopped.