Re: Why Guillermo Rigondeaux beats Nonito Donaire
I think we have to remember that Donaire was in a rut against Vasquez and Mathebula that showed he was trying to constantly land that one punch. He had a love spell with his power after the Montiel KO made his stock soar, and was neglecting to set up his shots, as you rightly pointed out.
If you look at the Arce fight, even though he was coming forward, Arce was fighting really smart, throwing, ducking the counter, and then coming up to throw again. If Nonito weren't on his game with his footwork and came in trying to slug it out, it would have been much more competitive. Rigo throwing with Donaire is probably better, but Donaire has shown a great ability to stay smart and collect intelligence before landing a bomb soon after.
Making Donaire lead is definitely a way to get him to make mistakes and walk into punches. Rigo is in his element fighting off the back foot or circling to look for that left uppercut to the body or short straight up top. But I think it's more likely that Donaire baits Rigo's counters, and then catches him as he steps in to throw. So instead of Rigo triggering and busting through Donaire's guard because of a wide left, I see Donaire taking a step back and throwing the left at a distance. It will be a battle of feints, and I think Nonito has a lot more experience at that level. Right hands to the body and up top, along with jab-left hook baited counters. Countering Rigo's straight left with an overhand right is another option. If both throw simultaneously, Nonito's power might prove the difference.
Rigo definitely has a shot, so your analysis isn't off, it's a great tactic for him to emphasize. But I think when the fight happens, It's going to look uneventful, and then awkward as Donaire starts to get off first, but not without getting caught from time to time as Rigo potshots defensively, until Rigo runs out of ideas and starts circling all confused (assuming Nonito has taken control by round 8.)