Originally Posted by Bogotazo
Bump. What'd you think of my response BBall?
my bad man. I was distracted with all the crybabies last night and the fights.
Originally Posted by Bogotazo
I think we have to remember that Donaire was in a rut against Vasquez and Mathebula that showed he was trying to constantly land that one punch. He had a love spell with his power after the Montiel KO made his stock soar, and was neglecting to set up his shots, as you rightly pointed out.
If you look at the Arce fight, even though he was coming forward, Arce was fighting really smart, throwing, ducking the counter, and then coming up to throw again. If Nonito weren't on his game with his footwork and came in trying to slug it out, it would have been much more competitive. Rigo throwing with Donaire is probably better, but Donaire has shown a great ability to stay smart and collect intelligence before landing a bomb soon after.
Making Donaire lead is definitely a way to get him to make mistakes and walk into punches. Rigo is in his element fighting off the back foot or circling to look for that left uppercut to the body or short straight up top. But I think it's more likely that Donaire baits Rigo's counters, and then catches him as he steps in to throw. So instead of Rigo triggering and busting through Donaire's guard because of a wide left, I see Donaire taking a step back and throwing the left at a distance. It will be a battle of feints, and I think Nonito has a lot more experience at that level. Right hands to the body and up top, along with jab-left hook baited counters. Countering Rigo's straight left with an overhand right is another option. If both throw simultaneously, Nonito's power might prove the difference.
Rigo definitely has a shot, so your analysis isn't off, it's a great tactic for him to emphasize. But I think when the fight happens, It's going to look uneventful, and then awkward as Donaire starts to get off first, but not without getting caught from time to time as Rigo potshots defensively, until Rigo runs out of ideas and starts circling all confused (assuming Nonito has taken control by round 8.)
good breakdown, and I agree with a lot of what you said. What has helped Donaire recently is, he doesn't fight as dumb as he did after the Montiel fight. I remember during the Donaire Q&A before the Nishioka fight, he mentioned how he was trying to fight smarter and "get back to his roots"
And maybe that's what will prove wrong about my analysis. Maybe I'm trying to breakdown the wrong version of Donaire. The only thing is, I'm counting on that version of him (from Navarez to Mathebula) to show up after a few rounds of dull action.
And I think you're right with it being a game of feinting. I was talking with Leon and said Rigo needs to be careful throwing that lazy jab of his vs Donaire. Donaire can easily come over top of it with his hook or fire a straight right with it.
But what I didn't account for (or I could be over thinking), is Rigo can bait his counter out with that jab and that's why it seems like he's not trying to land with it.
But like I said, Donaire is an extraordinary fighter. I think what it takes for him to win is easier for him than it is for Rigo. I just feel it's Rigo's focus and execution that will give him the victory.