Originally Posted by bballchump11
my bad man. I was distracted with all the crybabies last night and the fights.
good breakdown, and I agree with a lot of what you said. What has helped Donaire recently is, he doesn't fight as dumb as he did after the Montiel fight. I remember during the Donaire Q&A before the Nishioka fight, he mentioned how he was trying to fight smarter and "get back to his roots"
And maybe that's what will prove wrong about my analysis. Maybe I'm trying to breakdown the wrong version of Donaire. The only thing is, I'm counting on that version of him (from Navarez to Mathebula) to show up after a few rounds of dull action.
And I think you're right with it being a game of feinting. I was talking with Leon and said Rigo needs to be careful throwing that lazy jab of his vs Donaire. Donaire can easily come over top of it with his hook or fire a straight right with it.
But what I didn't account for (or I could be over thinking), is Rigo can bait his counter out with that jab and that's why it seems like he's not trying to land with it.
But like I said, Donaire is an extraordinary fighter. I think what it takes for him to win is easier for him than it is for Rigo. I just feel it's Rigo's focus and execution that will give him the victory.
That was my question
You're right in the sense that the first few rounds, which we both think will lack action, will test Nonito's patience and possibly draw him into leading with power shots and falling for Rigo's traps. But I don't see Rigo having success with the same counters over 12. Donaire will adjust, and start taking away his weapons. The southpaw jab is an interesting factor, should look back at Donaire's tactics against southpaws. Given his fast feet, his side-step left hook combination might catch Rigo. Garcia should find a way to neutralize that left uppercut to the body and straight up top. Rigo is better defensively with his footwork, but Nonito changes the angle more frequently, and I think that will confuse Rigo, who likes to make each punch count.