You made some good points up until this comment:
I'm certain that at some point he'd land and turn the tides in the event that he was behind on cards.
Tyson was not typically big at coming back once behind the eight ball. He also had the tendency to lose interest late in a fight. Although I think Tyson would have a good chance of taking Holmes, he'd have to be on his toes the whole night, and not put himself in a position where he'd have to come back from a deficit.