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| vBookie Event: Mayweather vs. Cotto (Boxing) |
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#31 |
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Champion
East Side Guru
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 5,511
vCash: 75 |
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#35 |
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Champion
East Side Guru
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 5,511
vCash: 75 |
http://rumradio.org/wp-content/uploa...board-box1.jpg
Sorry, nice suburb. nice greenery too. Is that bitch on two lvls? |
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#37 |
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Ballin
ESB Addict
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 2,113
vCash: 421 |
The over/ under line is very sharp here IMO. My inclination is the over, but I think a TKO has about a 40% chance in rounds 9-12. If it does come, it will be close to the 9.5 rounds mark, so you're really flipping a coin on that bet.
I've learned from my years of betting boxing that the over/ under is often a fools bet and way more unpredictable than just betting who will win. It seems that IB has learned this lesson the hard way the other night when Malignaggi scored an unexpected TKO. Who woulda thought that would happen? The thing is, I knew that was in the realm of possibility, because a lot of shit is in boxing. Laugh if you want, but I could always tell Paulie's power was a bit underrated. Been watching him for years and I wasn't surprised that he scored a TKO. Another example - Cotto vs Foreman. I had the over in that fight for $200 (not Vcash), and that to me was an excellent bet. Every indicator pointed to a Cotto UD. Foreman is a tough guy, very motivated with a good chin that moves around a lot and is hard to hit a lot due to his movement. It was clear that Cotto was a step above, but that Cotto wasn't really gonna hurt him because Cotto had been in decision after decision in that period of time (and even now, Cotto rarely scores an early KO). And obviously Foreman with his miniscule KO number and boxing style had a very slim chance of getting an early KO. So it seemed like a great bet, and it was on the way to cashing until Foreman gets a FREAK injury to his knee and can barely move, leading to a TKO. There goes $200. And then there are always situations where a KO artist is fighting some no name guy and you think he's going to just demolish him in the first 4 rounds and then they turn out to be tougher than expected and last the whole fight. For example - Donaire/ Narvaez. So to me, it's NEVER worth betting on the over/under in boxing. Betting Vcash on it is one thing since it's all for fun, but in the long run you're gonna lose money betting on the over/ under in boxing. Don't say I didn't warn ya. Now let's cash this check tomorrow, Money May! Last edited by StreetsofRAGE; 05-05-2012 at 03:48 AM. |
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