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Old 10-01-2012, 01:52 PM   #1
bballchump11
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Default Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

I got tired of always having to write out an analysis for this fight, so I just wanted to make a thread, so I don't have to anymore
Here's why and how I think Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez. I'm just taking my old breakdown and adding more details to it and new things I learned from watching Sergio.




The way I see Floyd fighting and frustrating Sergio is by coming forward with his high guard and catching and neutralizing Sergio's jab while he tries to establish his jab. It's hard to out jab a southpaw who is taller than you (Ortiz) but if Sergio keeps his hands down, then you can land easy. Sergio always drops his hands by his side after he throws his jab and even Chavez Jr was able to counter over it. Sergio has a great jab, but dropping down to your waist after you throw it is an awful idea vs Mayweather.
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I see Floyd maybe getting caught a few times in the first few rounds from Sergio countering him from weird angles, while Floyd tries attack him. Barker had success because he didn't give Sergio much to counter and when he did throw, he would step back and also bring his hands back quick and high enough for him not to get countered. Macklin also tried to use his reach and be economical with his punches to avoid Sergio countering him.

I think Floyd will feint Sergio into moving the way he wants whole his hands are down and then follow up with a lead right. He'll also make sure to get out the way and pot shot to avoid counters like this
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Sergio after a while may try to start leading more like he did with Barker, but Floyd won't stand still when he flurries. In the words of Money Mayweather - "You won't see him hitting me with that wild shit." When Floyd is in his high guard, he still makes sure he can retreat quickly with his feet. So combos like this WILL NOT be landing on Floyd. Floyd isn't like Dzinzurik or Barker when using his high guard, because he uses much movement than them.
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Also Sergio despite Sergio being the bigger man, I think Floyd will get the better of him in the pocket and in clinches. Sergio showed some good stuff against Chavez, but defensively, he has no answer in the pocket. That's what sets fighters like Mayweather or Ward apart from other fighters in the pocket, is their defense. Plus even when against the ropes or up close, Sergio's answer to it would be to put one arm up to his face and keep the other hand down and sit there without rolling or slipping anything.
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You guys can very much expect Floyd to be targeting Sergio's body in this fight. Macklin had plenty of success setting up his straight right to the body with the help of his feints and range finding jabs (similar to the gif shown above). After multiple rounds of establishing that punch, the right hand upstairs became very open for Macklin.

With all that said, I hope this fight takes place at 154 pounds in 2013
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:33 PM   #2
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Interesting that you base your premise on the fact that Floyd would come forward on Sergio, because I think that Floyd taking the lead would actually lead to his downfall, in a sense. Even though Floyd has very good accuracy and judge of distance when coming forward, it puts me on edge every time he leads into his punches. Few fighters have ever tried to make Floyd lead, and I think Martinez would try to exploit this by baiting him. I noticed that against southpaws, when he tries to come forward, he sometimes follows them around the ring, and walks into shots he normally wouldn't.

Here, at :30 secs, Mitchell catches Floyd with a few stiff jabs while circling, and Floyd is planted since he's stuck on the front foot.

From 3:40 on, you can see Floyd simply following whenever Mitchell steps. The reason I point this out is because Martinez's favorite tactic is to walk towards the right hand when out of range, so that his opponent follows and cedes the space he needs to circle back the other way and regain the center of the ring. I think Floyd trying to walk him down plays into his hands. 4:09 shows Floyd reach uncharacteristically, and almost/arguably loses the round on ceding the angle.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRRHsiVfJic[/ame]

Here he is reaching against Cotto, lifting his right leg off the ground and stepping forward into a lunge nearly ever time with his chin in the air:

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Then of course there's the right-hook counter knockdown against Judah and the handful of counter-lefts he walked into.

I simply don't think Floyd is stylistically suited to come forward against Sergio (as a main strategy anyway, in spots it could work great). At least, I'd feel nervous as a Floyd fan watching him leap into shots.

The point you mention about Barker, however, is a way I think he can get at Martinez. If he sports a high guard but hangs back a bit while engaging, he can anticipate Sergio's jab and knock it down, since like you said, it's already down low. Floyd's parrying skills against Judah show that he can paw and neutralize certain key punches from a southpaw if they stay still trying to play chess with him, including the jab. If he can catch Martinez side-stepping without throwing or rushing forward with check hooks and rights to the body, he can start to dismantle his offense.

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In terms of in clinches, I think it's anybody's game. Floyd is defensively superior, but Sergio will no doubt throw in more volume and with much more potency. He did after all break Jr.'s face. I don't think the fight would end up here often except in those award moments of coming together that always happen between opposite-stance fighters, but if it did, I think it could favor Floyd in terms of points within the round, but also Sergio in terms of damage done to Floyd which could affect him down the road and overall in the fight, especially considering Floyd's one nearly always open spot is the right side of his body (hard right hooks).

I think I'd favor the former scenario to occur and pick Sergio, but I think Floyd can win using elements of what you said and what I added. Good post.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:42 PM   #3
C.J.
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

This is all just a pipedream . If you really believe Mayweather will ever fight Martinez I've got some beach front property in Oklahoma to sell
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:46 PM   #4
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Quote:
Originally Posted by C.J. View Post
This is all just a pipedream . If you really believe Mayweather will ever fight Martinez I've got some beach front property in Oklahoma to sell
And the same thing was said about Shane Mosley. Then there will be another name...and another one...and another one..and another one.

Both posters above give excellent analysis of this fight and this asshole comes with this shit.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:47 PM   #5
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Props to Bogo and bball on this. I think both scenarios are likely and could happen by all means.

Note-That Mitchell video is the last time Floyd fought someone who was not in the top 3 in his division and/or top 10 in the world. 2005 is a long time ago.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:48 PM   #6
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

If Floyd turns it into a chessmatch, I think he can really tag Sergio. The slower the pace in this fight, the more Floyd will have his way.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:50 PM   #7
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Quote:
Originally Posted by C.J. View Post
This is all just a pipedream . If you really believe Mayweather will ever fight Martinez I've got some beach front property in Oklahoma to sell
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:50 PM   #8
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

I agree, Floyd takes this. Martinez been overrated on here imo.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:51 PM   #9
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Chavez Jr would be a cool mismatch, Chavez would just walk through the shots.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:52 PM   #10
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

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Originally Posted by Thatman View Post
And the same thing was said about Shane Mosley. Then there will be another name...and another one...and another one..and another one.

Both posters above give excellent analysis of this fight and this asshole comes with this shit.
At least this asshole isnt a gullible butt licker like you LOL Fight wi8lol never happen
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:54 PM   #11
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Martinez is a very, very, very good boxer but he's not on Floyd's level. Floyd is an all time great and while Martinez ranks up there in terms of skills he's just not in Floyd's league.

I think it would be a very interesting and fun fight to watch and I'd be routing for Sergio but you can't kill what you can't catch and Floyd's faster and more skilled than Sergio.

Floyd wins this fight because he's simply better. No ultra analysis needed here.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:55 PM   #12
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Very intrested to read this.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:56 PM   #13
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Cool story bro

Why only Martinez when Floyd could beat the like of SRR or SRL...this is a fantasy fight after all .
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:57 PM   #14
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Quote:
Originally Posted by C.J. View Post
At least this asshole isnt a gullible butt licker like you LOL Fight wi8lol never happen
Nice comeback. Again, you off thread topic.
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Old 10-01-2012, 02:58 PM   #15
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Default Re: Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

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Originally Posted by PH|LLA View Post
I agree, Floyd takes this. Martinez been overrated on here imo.
Martinez is harder than any other fight out there, for Floyd.
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