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Old 10-31-2012, 07:10 PM   #91
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

I know a few punters who will be disappointed...

This fight presented a rare arbitrage betting opportunity.

2 bookies had complete opposite odds - whereby backing both fighters to win resulted in a 30% return on investment. A draw being the only possible loss.

So put a $1000 on and get $1300 back regardless of result...

We will get them next time Adam
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:24 PM   #92
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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Originally Posted by RedCornerPromotions View Post
I know a few punters who will be disappointed...

This fight presented a rare arbitrage betting opportunity.

2 bookies had complete opposite odds - whereby backing both fighters to win resulted in a 30% return on investment. A draw being the only possible loss.

So put a $1000 on and get $1300 back regardless of result...

We will get them next time Adam
Yeah we were talking about it a couple of pages ago

@ $26 bucks for a draw that result could have been easily negated also.

@ NZTAB they didn't have a draw as an option, they use dead heat rules and when that result occurs the punter is paid out half of a win.

Botha @ $3 bucks would have still resulted in $1.50 paid out for every dollar invested, not a bad result.

How often have you seen it occur before? It's the first time i have seen it in 10 years
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:59 AM   #93
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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How often have you seen it occur before? It's the first time i have seen it in 10 years
It happened in the Danny Green v Krzysztof Wlodarczyk fight.

Green opened as a big favourite but all the money went on Wlod meaning he ended up starting as favourite.

Anyone who backed Wlod early could have bet on Green late & been guaranteed a collect with no risk.

It paid not to lay off that bet though.
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Old 11-01-2012, 04:02 AM   #94
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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It happened in the Danny Green v Krzysztof Wlodarczyk fight.

Green opened as a big favourite but all the money went on Wlod meaning he ended up starting as favourite.

Anyone who backed Wlod early could have bet on Green late & been guaranteed a collect with no risk.

It paid not to lay off that bet though.
That happens all the time with punters directly influencing the odds

In this situation different agencies opened with opposite odds at the same time
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Old 11-01-2012, 05:33 AM   #95
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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That happens all the time with punters directly influencing the odds

In this situation different agencies opened with opposite odds at the same time
In terms of boxing matches, it's pretty rare for one guy to start out as a big favourite & end up the outsider.

Green v Wlod is the biggest swing I've seen in a boxing match that I was interested in betting on in recent times.

If you've seen others, I'd be interested in hearing what they were.

Last edited by Sandman_; 11-01-2012 at 05:45 AM.
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Old 11-02-2012, 03:45 AM   #96
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

Bullshit its a rare occurance, I made more cash out of routines like this and others in my mid to late 20's than in my best paying 'real' job over about 5-6 years. Some people just need to be literally taken right to the water edge before they recognise the river, I was laughing fit to break a rib when some bloke told me betting doesn't 'work like that'. Waht am I, guessing???

Evolution at work I'm afraid.

Anyway, it was easier to do in the sp days, so long as you had the right numbers on account- but then you had to be very careful, as some of the controllers of those operations didn't think twice about planting people. Now its legalised its a different world...but it does take the 'edgy' fun aspect out of it. But yes I was taught and practiced this and other much more intricate routines to great gain many times....but in the long, was making a lot of easy cash worth it...? Well, that's a deeper more metaphysical question that every man has to confront at some point in their own life, I made and lost alot of money before I gained something much more valauble, but thats a test for each man in his own time- usually once they've reached some real maturity. I only talk about routines as I did now to amuse myself, I've lived my life and do enjoy watching people approach the same hurdles..

I am digressing...hmmmm, on the betting, I've only mentioned the basic principal, only because this its a boxing forum, and this is just literally learning to how to count when compared to the ways and whiles we used to do back in the day. But you have to have guidance, get this worng and you end up broke, or in serious debt, or much worse. If your'e not be guided, forget about it, it doesn't matter who you know or how tough you are....I know the scene is less dangerous today than in the 70's-80's, but sharks are always sharks, and if I told you the things that happened to bad debtors that I knew, you'd say i was making it up.
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Old 11-02-2012, 05:03 AM   #97
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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In terms of boxing matches, it's pretty rare for one guy to start out as a big favourite & end up the outsider.

Green v Wlod is the biggest swing I've seen in a boxing match that I was interested in betting on in recent times.

If you've seen others, I'd be interested in hearing what they were.
In terms of boxing i can't name many off the top of my head. NZ doesn't really have that many betting options tbh.

However when Joey Johns got injured you could guarantee the punters would start backing against the Knights. They would go from big favourites to unders very quickly.

NZ rugby it happens quite regularly as well, punters love to back their home town teams.
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Old 11-02-2012, 05:28 AM   #98
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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Bullshit its a rare occurance.
It's a rare occurance. As previously stated, feel free to name a few fights where it's happened lately. By "lately" I don't mean fights from the 70s.

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In terms of boxing i can't name many off the top of my head.
That's because it doesn't happen very often. I mean, you do see small swings where one guy starts out as a marginal favourite and then ends up the dog, but big swings where there's some real money to be made with no risk involved are few & far between. Green v Wlod was one.
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Old 11-02-2012, 06:00 AM   #99
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

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It's a rare occurance. As previously stated, feel free to name a few fights where it's happened lately. By "lately" I don't mean fights from the 70s.



That's because it doesn't happen very often. I mean, you do see small swings where one guy starts out as a marginal favourite and then ends up the dog, but big swings where there's some real money to be made with no risk involved are few & far between. Green v Wlod was one.
Swings? Why the fark are you relying on swings?????

I think you and I are talking at cross-purposes. Yeah sure, I was doing it during the SP days...but that is just the type of bookmaker. The only advantage I had doing it (and by the way, I think you don't know what I'm talking about; for the illumination of those that do, I'll ignore your ignorance) was that it was a shitload easier to bet (but only if you were onside with the SP's, it was illegal after all) on domestic/Australian bouts. The game hasn't changed, you just have to use a different type...

But swings-???? To rely on swings would be a mugs game, as you'd either have to put up dough for an option to bet later on if the line happended to chance the way you would need it to go (which could work, but in my day would have got you sussed out and your thumbs broken quick smart) or put up your dough on a chance- which defeats the whole farking point. That's just ****ing stupid. I don't know what your on about...but best a luck to you with your swings.,
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Old 11-02-2012, 05:51 PM   #100
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

This fight is still going ahead according to the promoter >>>

THE heavyweight fight between Sonny Bill Williams and South African Francois Botha has been rescheduled for February

South African promoter World Sport Promotions said overnight that Williams had undergone surgery on a chest muscle injury and that an exact date would be worked out after it meets with broadcaster Fox Sports. The fight is due to take place in Australia.

"We wish Williams a speedy recovery and hope that he is able to return to training soon," said Thinus Strydom of WSP.

Williams, the New Zealand heavyweight champion and a dual rugby league and union international, was due to fight Botha in Brisbane on November 24.

Williams tweeted overnight that the operation on the pectoral muscle he tore playing for his rugby club in Japan this weekend was a success.

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Old 11-03-2012, 08:44 PM   #101
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

I was at a country trots meeting once and I was leaving early...

The track had a black out as I was starting my car - in the car I heard the result of Wenty Park Dogs. I slipped back into the betting ring and they were still taking bets...

The three bookie's I got on with never took another bet from me again...

You only get one of those in a lifetime.
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Old 11-05-2012, 04:07 AM   #102
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Default Re: sonny bill $3, francois botha $1.40

Hahaha.

Several years ago there was an obscure European title fight that one of the betting agencies here had odds up for (I won't say which one). The fight was in Hungary (I think).

The result came through on f-news and the agency still had the fight up with a closing time of a couple of hours away.

I was tempted to put something big on the winner but because he was at reasonably short odds and I wanted to continue to be able to bet with the agency concerned I didn't take advantage.

If I had of, I wouldn't be posting it here!

They do make mistakes occasionally is the moral of the story.
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