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Old 11-24-2012, 09:12 AM   #46
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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I won't be able to see it, as I'll be in Manchester wearing a Hatton T-shirt and drinking Guiness until Matt Hatton looks attractive. BUT

Tomorrow night we have one of the more intreuging fights of the year, as multi weight Champion Robert 'The Ghost' Guererro takes on fully fledged Welterweight Andre Berto.

First off, I'm picking Berto to win. He's just too far infront of RG physically for the difference in technique to be that big a factor. I expect Berto to end the fight inside nine rounds.

However, this is Boxing and upsets do happen. Below are my thoughts and technical observations on how Guererro can use the tools at his disposal to win the fight.

As always, feedback and ridicule is welcome, and I'd like to see your own ideas too.

Andre Berto

Berto is both fast and powerful, with a strong right hand and the ability to throw combinations. He's also a good finisher, showing little mercy when he has a guy hurt.

However, Berto is flat footed. It's why I picked Ortiz to beat him.

Berto has little to no defence. He's lucky his fight with Mosley never came off, he'd still have no feeling in his legs.

His gas tank is more than questionable, most likely due to him being ridiculously top heavy. Why do fighters insist on that?! Put the weight off of his shoulders and on to his damn legs, his cardio will improve and he'll take a better shot. ANYWAYS.

Robert Guererro

Most importantly, this is not his natrual weight. Guererro needs money and he's chasing it with whoever he can. 135lbs would suit him best, 140 would be okay, but this? This could be suicidal. Berto is not Aydin, he is bigger, stronger and quicker.

Technically, Guererro is solid. Nice fundamentals with a good ring IQ. His footwork concerns me though.

Guererro's concentration slips at times, and against a guy who's so much bigger, this could spell disaster.


How I would want Guererro to fight Berto

Start with your brain. Berto comes out all guns blazing. Guererro needs to keep his hands up and move laterally towards the LEFT hand of Berto. Don't open up. Keep to one and two punch combinations. See what Berto has. Feel the strength and take a round to adjust to the speed. Keep your feet working steadily to maintain midrange distance, if Berto explodes then move close, bang to his hips once or twice and hold. We're here to win, not to go out in a blaze of ill advised glory.

Berto has had his right shoulder repaired surgically. Boo ****ing hoo for Berto. Guererro needs to go after it. This guy has physical advantages, so let's go after those. Hook to that shoulder, tighten it up. Jab to it, double that jab, sting his shoulder so he lowers his gaze and then crack him on the nose. IMPORTANTLY, then dip at your waist, and escape via stepping out towards the shoulder just attacked.

Put a pause in him. This means stop him in his tracks. Now he's so much bigger, so how do we do that? feint with the jab and then throw the straight right hand to his chest, right in the solar plexis, I don't care who you are, that is an exposed part of your body. Make him understand that he is vulnerable.

Now Berto will be punching back, he puts full mustard on his shots so just putting up your hands and hoping for the best won't cut it. He's too heavy and will smash through. Parry his punches downwards, and exploit the opening, particularly with the left hook counter.

Guererro will get hit, Berto is to quick not to land. Don't be too proud, grab and hold for your life. Make the ref pry you apart. Clear your head and keep to the game plan.

Around about the 7/8 round mark, go back to Berto's hips. Andre has questionable stamina, we've already worked on his shoulder, now take his legs. Use this old Latin trick to ensure that he becomes more stationairy. We're taking his base away, making him easier to attack.

Berto should be slowing down now, throw hard to his heart. Shock him, and don't stop to admire your work, make an impression on the crowd and throw for his chin. Then grab him, Berto isn't punching back, we won't let him.

Keep moving laterally, picking your times to throw and nullifiying Berto's now limited offense through superior craft. Throw enough that the judges can't ignore you, but keep your chin tucked, and your body moving. You may have a chance.




Anyone else?
Great write up.

I've been following Guerrero and Berto for a while and never imagined their paths would cross. I think Guerrero has moved up too high as well. I expect Berto will be too powerful for him. I would give Guerrero a chance to outbox Berto is he fought that way - but Andre does have speed of his own - particularly in his hands. I think at some point he will catch up to the smart boxing Guerrero and put him on the canvas for the count.
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Old 11-24-2012, 10:54 AM   #47
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

I'd be surprised if Berto got him out early, Guerrero will be very cautious.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:31 AM   #48
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Good analysis, definately a good gameplan for the Ghost, hopefully his trainer was reading.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:39 AM   #49
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Guerrero's going to win tonight. He's just more skilled and Berto(e)'s too easy to hit.

I'm not even sold that Bertoe beats Aydin.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:44 AM   #50
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Great opening post.

I'll keep it short and sweet. I think this plays out in similar fashion to Soto-Matthysse. Not in correlation to styles, or punch output, etc. Just simply, a smaller guy in with a guy natural at the weight who doesn't have the firepower to keep the bigger guy off.

Guerrero is technically better, and has the greater skill set, but this bout for me is purely about physical assets. These are in favour of Berto.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:45 AM   #51
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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Guerrero's going to win tonight. He's just more skilled and Berto(e)'s too easy to hit.

I'm not even sold that Bertoe beats Aydin.
Me too, Berto didn't want any of Aydin.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:46 AM   #52
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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I got Guerrero winning by UD, all I will say is.

We all know Berto was outboxed by Collazo and Ortiz and you dont need to knock him out to beat him, all you need is to have a solid game plan based on attacking him early and keeping that pace throughout the whole fight. It's important not to let Berto to utilize his speed and get within range of throwing those uppercuts. Andre wont be able to adjust and will find it hard winning rounds if Guerrero is focused which he will be. A fighter attempting to decision Berto has a great chance of winning.

Guerrero won his last 4 fights by decision.
Berto was not outboxed by Ortiz or Collazo. He was smothered and outworked on the inside. On the outside, Berto's hands are too fast and his timing is very good. On the inside, he can't defend at all. He just holds, and he holds ineffectively, allowing opponents free shots at him. Also, on the inside his punches don't have the power. Look at when he put Ortiz down or when he hurt Collazo, they were at mid range in exchanges where he had leverage on his shots.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:48 AM   #53
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Berto is gonna push his shit in. Guerrero will be forced to fight just like the last time round. If that happens he getting knocked out. I hope berto been training hard for this fight, because guerrero could try keep it at long range and on my card probably win on points but he won't be getting the decision if he does. He will get robbed.

Lose/Lose for guerrero.
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:55 AM   #54
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Technically Robert is a superior fighter......but Berto his working with more athleticism and raw talent. He's faster, bigger and stronger.....Not that Robert isn't talented or athletic...he is...but Andre is working with more.

I just don't think Robert will be able to handle the disparity with the physical elements like size and strength....The speed will also cause the Ghost some trouble but his skills should allow him to knock out a few corners. I just don't see Robert holding up for 12 rounds if he can't earn Andre's respect.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:11 PM   #55
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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Originally Posted by floyd_g.o.a.t View Post
I got Guerrero winning by UD, all I will say is.

We all know Berto was outboxed by Collazo and Ortiz and you dont need to knock him out to beat him, all you need is to have a solid game plan based on attacking him early and keeping that pace throughout the whole fight. It's important not to let Berto to utilize his speed and get within range of throwing those uppercuts. Andre wont be able to adjust and will find it hard winning rounds if Guerrero is focused which he will be. A fighter attempting to decision Berto has a great chance of winning.

Guerrero won his last 4 fights by decision.
Good points but Guerrero did not look disciplined at all against Aydin and the fight was close. I think Berto gets the best of him if he fights remotely like that.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:19 PM   #56
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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Good points but Guerrero did not look disciplined at all against Aydin and the fight was close. I think Berto gets the best of him if he fights remotely like that.
Yeah I feel his injury and jump up in weight did affect his performance. I would have liked him to fight one more time at 147 before fighting Berto but he's a warrior.
I'm leaning towards my heart and hoping Guerrero gets the W, definitely one of the more intriguing fights this year.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:20 PM   #57
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

imo, berto is a solid value at -150. i think he should be more -200 especially taking into consideration that haymon and gbp appararntly have bought out his contract with dibella.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:21 PM   #58
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Well, Berto *should* win but there's definitely a case to be made for Guerrero.

Berto has never looked comfortable against southpaws. I think he's open to the straight left, which even Quintana had some success with. Berto telegraphs his punches a little and he also fights in bursts; throw a combination, take a rest, then repeat.

If Guerrero can fight in between those combinations and land his straight left as a counter to Berto's clubbing right, he could have a lot of success.

Berto should be able to bully him but if Guerrero stays disciplined and sticks to a gameplan, I think he could pull it off.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:23 PM   #59
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

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Old 11-24-2012, 12:45 PM   #60
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Default Re: Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

Guerrero does look a bit soft in this picture, didn't looked like this live. Maybe it's just an impression maybe this pic is more detailed.
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