Pacquiao - Marquez 4 Analysis/Possible Outcomes

[Uncle Rico]

Originally Posted by dangerousity

I am not suggesting that he boxes tentatively like he did in the 3rd fight, I am suggesting that he forces JMM to be on his frontfoot by going on the backfoot. This changes the dynamics of the fight greatly and a lot of the things that JMM does that use to frustrate him will be nullified.

Example:
JMM backing off, is out of range so Pac lunges forward to close range and to try attack - JMM sees the threat, launches counterpunches and gets out of range again.

JMM backing off, circling away from Pac's left as Pac is in pursuit - It is much more difficult to "circle away" when youre the one moving forward, so as a result JMM moving forward will but him back in harms way of the straight left.

JMM backing off, Pac lunges forward and throws punches, JMM just takes another step back to get out of range and Pac misses by inches - If JMM was moving forward, it would be much harder for him to simply lean away from incoming punches, hence why come forward fighters bob and weave.

I see. Some good points. But you have to wonder whether Pac has got the ability to do that with such an experienced/skilled guy like JMM. With lesser counterpunchers, yes. But I'm not sure with this one.

[Bogotazo]

Have to disagree with your premise. In the 3rd fight, Manny was looking to counter JMM and likely expected him to come out throwing long strings of combinations. Roach said in the lead up to that fight "we're going to counter-punch the counter-puncher, Nacho knows it, and there's nothing he can do about it." When JMM circled laterally, took the angle away from Manny, and Manny didn't oblige him with more than a few short 1-1-2's, Marquez took the initiative and landed with lead rights and lefts while ducking under. When JMM initiates offensively on his terms and stays responsible, there's little Manny can do besides hope to land a right hook and pray the right hand he might be eating simultaneously isn't harder. And Manny isn't going to fool Juan into that, and he's not going to fight like Chris John.

Countering Juan and catching him may be an option, but it's only going to come about if Manny uses feints, lot's of offensive movements, and mixes up his offense better. But JMM leading will probably upset that and make Manny nervous in the second half again. He can lead better than Manny can counter, and he's not going to follow Pac on his own.

[VBOX]

Box off the back foot? Forget that. Do what he does best, it's been winning so far.

Use hand speed, throw any and all type of leather at him, jab jab left straight, right hook counter, straight left leads.

I don't mean any disrespect to the Marquez fans and the boxing technicians but Marquez can not go punch for punch with Pacquiao, he will look for perfectly timed punches while Pacquiao throws more leather. Pacquiao will win on the cards and most of you will scream robbery, oh well.

Pacquiao is the betting favorite, and this aint no trap bet that odds makers like to pull from time to time. Most people are already riding with Marquez so making him the dog would be like serving stacks of bills on a platter, Pacquiao is the legit favorite and the odds reflect that.

[divac]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

Have to disagree with your premise. In the 3rd fight, Manny was looking to counter JMM and likely expected him to come out throwing long strings of combinations. Roach said in the lead up to that fight "we're going to counter-punch the counter-puncher, Nacho knows it, and there's nothing he can do about it." When JMM circled laterally, took the angle away from Manny, and Manny didn't oblige him with more than a few short 1-1-2's, Marquez took the initiative and landed with lead rights and lefts while ducking under. When JMM initiates offensively on his terms and stays responsible, there's little Manny can do besides hope to land a right hook and pray the right hand he might be eating simultaneously isn't harder. And Manny isn't going to fool Juan into that, and he's not going to fight like Chris John.

Countering Juan and catching him may be an option, but it's only going to come about if Manny uses feints, lot's of offensive movements, and mixes up his offense better. But JMM leading will probably upset that and make Manny nervous in the second half again. He can lead better than Manny can counter, and he's not going to follow Pac on his own.

Thankyou Tazo! Alot of these Pacquiao fans will not accept that Pacquiao's fight plan in the 3rd fight was to box from distance. To stay at center ring without going out looking for Marquez and have Pacquiao's faster hands and feet manuever around Marqeuz and fluster him.

Roach having seen Marquez not able to react to Mayweather's quickness and speed from from distance thought Pacquiao could do the same to an old lightweight moving up in weight. He thought Marquez would'nt be quick enough to react and his interviews before hand showed the glee he was in anticipating Paquiao was going to be to quick, to fast, to powerful, and to Patient for Marquez.

Pacquiao spent the first few rounds attempting to box and force Marquez to lead. Marquez mantained calm at center ring and probed clean lead shots to both the head and body of Pacquiao.

I had voiced concern in this forum going into that 3rd fight whether Marquez could be quick enough on the trigger at his age and moving up two weight classes to land on a Pacquiao if Pacquiao fought from distance and made Marquez lead.

We got that answer right away in the first couple or rounds.
Pacquiao was being patient, Marquez was probing and landing solid leads, and the result was that Pacquiao was'nt answering back with a quick enough counter.
Pacquiao could not match x's and o's with Marquez and that was very apparent early on.

What do you think Tazo of what I outlined for dangerousity, about Pacquiao's best bet to win legitly would be to get on his bicycle ala Leonard vs Hagler and DLH vs Trinidad. To actually run around Marquez and look to engage very little?

Do you think at 40 years of age Marquez can get his feet to move fast enough to land effective clean punches????

Personally imo, running would be Pacquiao's best option. He's not going to outbox Marquez, and he eats to many clean flush shots and becomes gunshy when he gets overly aggressive vs Marquez.

[Farmboxer]

$70 into the trash can probably. Undercard a disgrace!

[Bogotazo]

Originally Posted by divac

Thankyou Tazo! Alot of these Pacquiao fans will not accept that Pacquiao's fight plan in the 3rd fight was to box from distance. To stay at center ring without going out looking for Marquez and have Pacquiao's faster hands and feet manuever around Marqeuz and fluster him.

Roach having seen Marquez not able to react to Mayweather's quickness and speed from from distance thought Pacquiao could do the same to an old lightweight moving up in weight. He thought Marquez would'nt be quick enough to react and his interviews before hand showed the glee he was in anticipating Paquiao was going to be to quick, to fast, to powerful, and to Patient for Marquez.

Pacquiao spent the first few rounds attempting to box and force Marquez to lead. Marquez mantained calm at center ring and probed clean lead shots to both the head and body of Pacquiao.

I had voiced concern in this forum going into that 3rd fight whether Marquez could be quick enough on the trigger at his age and moving up two weight classes to land on a Pacquiao if Pacquiao fought from distance and made Marquez lead.

We got that answer right away in the first couple or rounds.
Pacquiao was being patient, Marquez was probing and landing solid leads, and the result was that Pacquiao was'nt answering back with a quick enough counter.
Pacquiao could not match x's and o's with Marquez and that was very apparent early on.

What do you think Tazo of what I outlined for dangerousity, about Pacquiao's best bet to win legitly would be to get on his bicycle ala Leonard vs Hagler and DLH vs Trinidad. To actually run around Marquez and look to engage very little?

Do you think at 40 years of age Marquez can get his feet to move fast enough to land effective clean punches????

Personally imo, running would be Pacquiao's best option. He's not going to outbox Marquez, and he eats to many clean flush shots and becomes gunshy when he gets overly aggressive vs Marquez.

I think "running" would be an interesting game-plan, but I think it would backfire and make Manny look foolish as he runs while JMM chases. Though that might be a way he can catch Marquez lunging just once and send him to the canvas. But again, that doesn't ensure he's winning the fight. He would just end up coming at JMM anyway, he has more patience than Manny does.

I think Manny frustrating JMM by pretending to lead and then baiting him into leading so as to catch him(and being prepared for the counter, as supposed to just being surprised by leads)...shuffle forward, step back, feint, shuffle forward, etc. The times he caught JMM in the 2nd fight were being unpredictable on his feet. But by now, Marquez has his feints and hops so down that it seems hard for Manny to do anything about it. Going for broke might be his only option, and if he can still bang like he used to, it's likely the best basket to lump his eggs into.

[PaoloMirani]

Pac doesn't really need to change his style much. I mean shit dude, they've fought 3 times and last time I checked he's up 2-0-1. He must be doing something rght. Once, call it a fluke...but three times suggests judges favor Pac's more proactive style (albeit slightly) over Marquez's more cautious tactical approach. The reality is this---Pac being the guy who is pressing the action is the one dictating the action. Dangerosity brings up valid points....Marquez's success is wholly dependent on what Pac does or does not do. In that sense, the main thing Pac has to be aware of is the ebb and flow of the fight and to not be drawn into unnecessary risks. This is essentially the onlyway Marquez scores.....set traps get Pac reaching. Hey look, Pac's been in the fight game 20 years. He knows what's up, he knows how and why JMM has success against him. He knew this in their last fight where he lowered his punch output and "boxed". You'll see a similar fight this time around. All this ko talk is just hype....Marquez kinows he can't punch first, and Pacquiao knows this.

[divac]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

I think "running" would be an interesting game-plan, but I think it would backfire and make Manny look foolish as he runs while JMM chases. Though that might be a way he can catch Marquez lunging just once and send him to the canvas. But again, that doesn't ensure he's winning the fight. He would just end up coming at JMM anyway, he has more patience than Manny does.

I think Manny frustrating JMM by pretending to lead and then baiting him into leading so as to catch him(and being prepared for the counter, as supposed to just being surprised by leads)...shuffle forward, step back, feint, shuffle forward, etc. The times he caught JMM in the 2nd fight were being unpredictable on his feet. But by now, Marquez has his feints and hops so down that it seems hard for Manny to do anything about it. Going for broke might be his only option, and if he can still bang like he used to, it's likely the best basket to lump his eggs into.

At least Pacquiao has a chance if he went for broke real early and came out guns blazing ala Mike Tyson.
Pacquiao could catch Marquez early and cold going that route, the only problem with that gameplan is that its risky. I actually do think Marquez has a better shot of stopping Pacquiao early if Pacquiao uses that fight plan.
This is'nt round 1 of fight 1 where Marquez has'nt faced and does'nt appreciate just how fast Pacquiao can close the gap from being out of distance to punch to in distance to punch in the blink of an eye.
As you said, Marquez knows Pacquiao's moves, and now that he knows to anticipate them, that fast start by Pacquiao may land him on a queer street he has'nt been too since his bantamweight days.

I say running because thats the only thing Pacquiao has'nt tried.

[divac]

Originally Posted by PaoloMirani

Pac doesn't really need to change his style much. I mean shit dude, they've fought 3 times and last time I checked he's up 2-0-1. He must be doing something rght. Once, call it a fluke...but three times suggests judges favor Pac's more proactive style (albeit slightly) over Marquez's more cautious tactical approach. The reality is this---Pac being the guy who is pressing the action is the one dictating the action. Dangerosity brings up valid points....Marquez's success is wholly dependent on what Pac does or does not do. In that sense, the main thing Pac has to be aware of is the ebb and flow of the fight and to not be drawn into unnecessary risks. This is essentially the onlyway Marquez scores.....set traps get Pac reaching. Hey look, Pac's been in the fight game 20 years. He knows what's up, he knows how and why JMM has success against him. He knew this in their last fight where he lowered his punch output and "boxed". You'll see a similar fight this time around. All this ko talk is just hype....Marquez kinows he can't punch first, and Pacquiao knows this.

Even most diehard Pactards are calling for Pacquiao to do something different. The reason for it is obvious, they know Pacquiao's lost every one of these fights.

For Marquez? Dont change a thing. The decision likely is'nt going to go his way, but I think history will look upon the 4 JMM-Pac fights as a prime example of boxing politics at work.
Marquez would have won 4 times and as a fan, thats good enough for me.

An official decision does not mean much in a sport filled with corruption.

It would be a shame if corruption took JMM out of his gameplan and got him out of the mode he's supposed to go in vs Pacquiao!
Boxing mode!
School him a 4th time Juan Manuel Marquez!

[PaoloMirani]

Originally Posted by divac

Even most diehard Pactards are calling for Pacquiao to do something different. The reason for it is obvious, they know Pacquiao's lost every one of these fights.

For Marquez? Dont change a thing. The decision likely is'nt going to go his way, but I think history will look upon the 4 JMM-Pac fights as a prime example of boxing politics at work.
Marquez would have won 4 times and as a fan, thats good enough for me.

An official decision does not mean much in a sport filled with corruption.

It would be a shame if corruption took JMM out of his gameplan and got him out of the mode he's supposed to go in vs Pacquiao!
Boxing mode!
School him a 4th time Juan Manuel Marquez!

Yes Vlade, itsa conspiracy. Juan will once again box beautifully and it won't matter.....coz for the 4th freaking time he will get jobbed by the judges. And yeah Pactard nation will begrdudgingly secretly admit that Juan "I won't leave it to the judges" Marquez outmachoed their national hero once again.

[divac]

Originally Posted by PaoloMirani

Yes Vlade, itsa conspiracy. Juan will once again box beautifully and it won't matter.....coz for the 4th freaking time he will get jobbed by the judges. And yeah Pactard nation will begrdudgingly secretly admit that Juan "I won't leave it to the judges" Marquez outmachoed their national hero once again.

It may sound like sour grapes to you PM, but the fan polls after each of the last two Marquez-Pacquiao fights back up my assertions.
These polls conducted right after the fight show that 2 out of 3 boxing fans think Marquez beat Pacquiao in both those fights!

[PaoloMirani]

I'd venture to say that that same poll....in fact a higher percentage would say that it was a close fight that could've gone either way. Oooh but who gives a shit about that. You know what Vlade, a piece of me actually wants the ol man to win. Peepee drinker has somewhat grown on me over the years. It would be good closure for both guys. And maybe for you too....and you can finally lay your decade long vendetta to rest.

[dodong]

4) Pacquiao fights off the backfoot as I discussed in the beginning. - Pac wide UD.

IMO, JMM has been fighting as perfect fight as he can, any changes to strategy would be great disadvantage to him. It is Pacquiao who needs to force the style changes.

I'm usually quite confident in betting on Pac fights, for this fight I have no idea who is gonna win, logically I favour JMM and I don't know why bookies have Pac as favourite. IMO the fight outcome depends entirely on their fight strategies which we can't predict at this point so you might as well toss a coin. The reason I'd favour JMM is because more than likely, both will use the same strategy as they have in their last 3 fights as its what they're most comfortable with, in that scenario, JMM outboxes Pac to a clear UD.

i pick this scenario and jmm has never really solved pac's lead left.

[jmmpbf]

Pacquiao will press for the KO early, when that doesnt happen he will tire because of not working out with Ariza and get outbox mid to late rounds. Marquez UD.

[floyd_g.o.a.t]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

Have to disagree with your premise. In the 3rd fight, Manny was looking to counter JMM and likely expected him to come out throwing long strings of combinations. Roach said in the lead up to that fight "we're going to counter-punch the counter-puncher, Nacho knows it, and there's nothing he can do about it." When JMM circled laterally, took the angle away from Manny, and Manny didn't oblige him with more than a few short 1-1-2's, Marquez took the initiative and landed with lead rights and lefts while ducking under. When JMM initiates offensively on his terms and stays responsible, there's little Manny can do besides hope to land a right hook and pray the right hand he might be eating simultaneously isn't harder. And Manny isn't going to fool Juan into that, and he's not going to fight like Chris John.

Countering Juan and catching him may be an option, but it's only going to come about if Manny uses feints, lot's of offensive movements, and mixes up his offense better. But JMM leading will probably upset that and make Manny nervous in the second half again. He can lead better than Manny can counter, and he's not going to follow Pac on his own.

This.

I feel at this stage of the career it will be a bit too hard for Pacquiao to change up his style and fight that way consistently for 12 rounds. I just don't see Manny being successful trying to back away and counter Marquez all night long. JMM is way too smart and knows how to get Pacquiao to come forward, which will fall in Marquez' plan.

The fight will be similar to the 3rd fight, but the only difference will be that both fighters will be much more cautious especially in the beginning. I expect Marquez to win clearly and the judges should give him the nod.

Marquez by UD or MD or SD