Pacquiao - Marquez 4 Analysis/Possible Outcomes

[floyd_g.o.a.t]

Originally Posted by jmmpbf

Pacquiao will press for the KO early, when that doesnt happen he will tire because of not working out with Ariza and get outbox mid to late rounds. Marquez UD.

Did Ariza work with him for the Bradley fight? I thought they were still working out together...

[divac]

Originally Posted by PaoloMirani

I'd venture to say that that same poll....in fact a higher percentage would say that it was a close fight that could've gone either way. Oooh but who gives a shit about that. You know what Vlade, a piece of me actually wants the ol man to win. Peepee drinker has somewhat grown on me over the years. It would be good closure for both guys. And maybe for you too....and you can finally lay your decade long vendetta to rest.

Another robbery or even a legit loss is not going to devestate me.

Marquez is 40. Everything he's been doing the past couple of years is just icing on the cake!

No vendetta here, I'm just telling it like it is!

[floyd_g.o.a.t]

Originally Posted by divac

Another robbery or even a legit loss is not going to devestate me.

Marquez is 40. Everything he's been doing the past couple of years is just icing on the cake!

No vendetta here, I'm just telling it like it is!

Robbery wont happen.

Surely the whole point of the 4th fight is to give Marquez his victory? I don't see it any other way. #BoxingPolitics

[Barney]

Marquez should win. Hopefully no robbery this time.

[divac]

Originally Posted by jmmpbf

Pacquiao will press for the KO early, when that doesnt happen he will tire because of not working out with Ariza and get outbox mid to late rounds. Marquez UD.

Aint going to happen. Marquez needs to dominate at least 10 rounds and even then there's no assurance.

Dominate 12, he might secure a draw! LOL!

[floyd_g.o.a.t]

Originally Posted by Barney

Marquez should win. Hopefully no robbery this time.

Good first post

[divac]

Originally Posted by floyd_g.o.a.t

Robbery wont happen.

Surely the whole point of the 4th fight is to give Marquez his victory? I don't see it any other way. #BoxingPolitics

The Bradley controversy put a wrench to that theory maybe having some credence.
Judges have short memory spans, which is why they let themselves get conned into giving a fighter a round for landing a hard shot the last seconds of a round when the other fighter clearly won 2 minutes and 50 seconds of it.
Judges are both dishonest and inept its become funny!

[divac]

Originally Posted by floyd_g.o.a.t

Did Ariza work with him for the Bradley fight? I thought they were still working out together...

Ariza is in camp, they're working together on strenghth and conditioning.

[floyd_g.o.a.t]

Originally Posted by divac

The Bradley controversy put a wrench to that theory maybe having some credence.
Judges have short memory spans, which is why they let themselves get conned into giving a fighter a round for landing a hard shot the last seconds of a round when the other fighter clearly won 2 minutes and 50 seconds of it.
Judges are both dishonest and inept its become funny!

It makes sense if JMM wins for Arum.

Sets up a fight for Bradley vs JMM and Pacquiao vs Rios

[divac]

Originally Posted by floyd_g.o.a.t

It makes sense if JMM wins for Arum.

Sets up a fight for Bradley vs JMM and Pacquiao vs Rios

The Bradley fight bombed with Pacquiao, it would have to be on free HBO for Marquez.

Add to that, another Pacquiao loss and Pac's stock drops even further on the PPV market.
Not to mention a Mayweather-Pacquiao possible fight gets tossed completely out the window.

The problem here is that if Pacquiao loses, he's a dimished on the PPV market. I dont see Pac-Rios doing more than 1 million PPV if Pacqiuao walks in there having lost to Marquez.

[RazorHandz]

Originally Posted by dangerousity

My opinion of what Pacquiao's strategy should be:

Box off the backfoot. He doesn't do this because its not his style, however I think even he knows he would make life easier for himself if he forced JMM to come forward. In interviews I have heard Pac say "I know how to fight a counterpuncher, to fight a counterpuncher you have to be a counterpuncher yourself, but it would be a boring fight". Quite simply, he needs to allow for a boring fight if he wants to win. Now I'm not simply saying to box with JMM as JMM would win that, but to literally go on the backfoot so that JMM would have to alter his style to something he's not accustomed to.

He tried that in the 3rd fight and it didn't work out well for him. The more tactical and quiet the fight is, the more it benefits the smarter fighter = Marquez.

Pacquiao needs to throw that tactical stuff out the window and bring the beast back, try to overwhelm Marquez with his speed and aggression and not give him enough time to think. Yes, he's gonna get countered but he needs to take the counters and keep coming, keep the fight at a fast pace to make Marquez's computer-like brain start to lag.

[cuchulain]

Originally Posted by divac

If I'm in Marquez camp however, I'd have Byrd removed as she is the daughter of HBO's very own inept judge Harold Lederman.

Lederman has shamelessly scored all three fights on HBO's orders that he do so.
Julie Byrd may be influenced by what her inept dad has had to say on the previous fights.

Julie Byrd may very well be honest and score a Marquez fight for Marquez, but nonetheless, there's a conflict of interest in Julie Byrd being one of the judges in this matchup that the commision should not allow.


Would'nt it be funny though if Julie scored a fight Marquez dominates legit and clearly wide for Marquez, but her dad Harold at HBO has Pacquiao bogusly up in rounds 7-5 like he did that first fight?

Any more thoughts on how Julie Byrd's scoring might affect things here, Div ?


Do you think the "conflict of interest" case will provide JMM with an avenue of appeal if it doesn't go his way ?

[gojas1]

Originally Posted by cuchulain

Any more thoughts on how Julie Byrd's scoring might affect things here, Div ?


Do you think the "conflict of interest" case will provide JMM with an avenue of appeal if it doesn't go his way ?

[Ringnut]

honestly the only way I can think of Pac getting a decisive win is if he goes for broke on the offense like the old Pac. It's also the best way for Pac to get KTFO or at least dropped by a Marquez who has gotten much stronger at the weight, and I can definitely see that happening if Pac chooses to fight this way.

Any other approach will get either a UD win for Marquez or another controversial decision for Pac.

I'm definitely leaning towards JMM in this fight.

[dangerousity]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

Have to disagree with your premise. In the 3rd fight, Manny was looking to counter JMM and likely expected him to come out throwing long strings of combinations. Roach said in the lead up to that fight "we're going to counter-punch the counter-puncher, Nacho knows it, and there's nothing he can do about it." When JMM circled laterally, took the angle away from Manny, and Manny didn't oblige him with more than a few short 1-1-2's, Marquez took the initiative and landed with lead rights and lefts while ducking under. When JMM initiates offensively on his terms and stays responsible, there's little Manny can do besides hope to land a right hook and pray the right hand he might be eating simultaneously isn't harder. And Manny isn't going to fool Juan into that, and he's not going to fight like Chris John.

Countering Juan and catching him may be an option, but it's only going to come about if Manny uses feints, lot's of offensive movements, and mixes up his offense better. But JMM leading will probably upset that and make Manny nervous in the second half again. He can lead better than Manny can counter, and he's not going to follow Pac on his own.

You misunderstood. I'm not saying to box in the center of the ring with JMM, its obvious JMM will win that and I already stated that. I'm saying, fight off the backfoot so that JMM will be thrown off his counterpunching game by being the man who has to close the distance and launch the assault.

IMO countering although is primarily to "counter" punches, you can also counter movements. What Pac was doing was trying to close the range, and even if he wasn't throwing and he tries to lunge in, close the distance, JMM sees that threat and counters it immediately before Pac can even get his punches off. So he was pre-empting Pac AND countering Pac in the occasion that Pac throws first. Both of these things can be taken away if he has to be the guy chasing, again, ie chasing Chris John.

it will be much easier for Pac to counter JMM, walk him into a left hand if JMM is the one walking towards Pac. I dont mean stand in the center of the ring within JMM's range so JMM can land at will, but actually backpedal and let JMM come to Pac thus Pacquiao can concentrate on landing those punches to an incoming target rather than one moving away.