Why Guillermo Rigondeaux beats Nonito Donaire

[Hermit]

Originally Posted by IntentionalButt

To me it seems obvious. Rigondeaux's defense is built to last against hawk-like counter-punchers, but shaky against relentless pressure & raw strength. Meanwhile, Mares would get absolutely schooled trying those very same tactics on Donaire.

Given the direction of todays judging Rigo won't win a decision against Donaire if he doesn't initiate some of the action and I don't see him KO'ing Nontito. We saw in his last fight what happens if he tries to open up offensively. That is why I see this going the way of the Donaire/Nish fight. Donaire baits him and closes the trap. If Rigo doesn't take the bait he loses the decision. I don't see Rigo getting a lot of good clean countering opportunities because Nonito will know he has to bring the A game and not screw around just like when he fought Nish.

[bballchump11]

Originally Posted by IntentionalButt

To me it seems obvious. Rigondeaux's defense is built to last against hawk-like counter-punchers, but shaky against relentless pressure & raw strength. Meanwhile, Mares would get absolutely schooled trying those very same tactics on Donaire.

yeah that's how I see it also. I had picked Moreno to beat Mares, but Mares surprised the crap out of me in that fight and convinced me that he would beat Rigo.

[The Bane]

Freddie Roach even said in an interview, that he couldn't hit Rigo while training him on the mitts. I think Rigo's experience and ring movement will take this fight. I know at any time Donaire can take Rigo out, but, I just can't see him getting Rigo cleanly due to his awkward movement and excellent defense.

[IGIFTK]

Originally Posted by bballchump11

I'll start off first saying Donaire is an extraordinary fighter and has the potential to become an atg especially with the talent around his weight class. I actually like Donaire as a fighter when he's on his game. But with that said, I feel he loses to Rigondeaux. Ironically I think Rigo loses to Mares and Mares loses to Donaire. Donaire>Rigo>Mares>Donaire Styles makes fights.

[Bogotazo]

Originally Posted by IGIFTK

Mares is probably the most relentless pressure fighter today. I don't see Rigo having the volume to keep him off. As good as his footwork is, he can't turn Mares the whole time in the center. Mares is going to get close, and then he has a problem.

[The Bane]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

Mares is probably the most relentless pressure fighter today. I don't see Rigo having the volume to keep him off. As good as his footwork is, he can't turn Mares the whole time in the center. Mares is going to get close, and then he has a problem.

Yes but Rigo is probably the most gifted fighter in boxing today. His defense is untouchable and that includes Mayweather. I am not saying he has a better legacy or anything, as he is still new to professional boxing but skill-wise and ring knowledge he takes it.

[Bogotazo]

Originally Posted by The Bane

Yes but Rigo is probably the most gifted fighter in boxing today. His defense is untouchable and that includes Mayweather. I am not saying he has a better legacy or anything, as he is still new to professional boxing but skill-wise and ring knowledge he takes it.

You can't possibly put his skills on such a level when they're unproven. Looking untouchable against the likes of Marroquin doesn't compare to fighting at the top level. Mares and Donaire are much more proven. Rigo is very skilled and a good fighter, but that's not the issue. You can't say his defense is anywhere near Mayweather's just because he looks good. There's a difference between looking great and being great. Otherwise Linares might as well have been considered just as good as Finito Lopez for his combination punching.

[Hermit]

Originally Posted by Bogotazo

Looking untouchable against the likes of Marroquin doesn't compare to fighting at the top level.

I thought Marroquin did touch him, no? Took a couple rounds and buckled Rigo's knees.

[Kid Cubano]

Originally Posted by Hermit

I thought Marroquin did touch him, no? Took a couple rounds and buckled Rigo's knees.

its boxing you know, also VW2 and Mathebula took some rds from Nonito

[Hermit]

Originally Posted by Kid Cubano

its boxing you know, also VW2 and Mathebula took some rds from Nonito

Pick your rankings but I don't see Marroquin ranked above those two anywhere. Mathebula is still pretty well ranked by the ring. Yeah, it's boxing but Rigo really should have a sterner test against someone before facing Nonito.

[Kid Cubano]

Originally Posted by Hermit

Pick your rankings but I don't see Marroquin ranked above those two anywhere. Mathebula is still pretty well ranked by the ring. Yeah, it's boxing but Rigo really should have a sterner test against someone before facing Nonito.

you tell me about rankings, WV2 just getting mauled by old little Arce.
Marroquin looked 10 times better than Mathebula.

[Hermit]

Originally Posted by Kid Cubano

Marroquin looked 10 times better than Mathebula.

Probably because the level of competition was different?

[Cuban Bon Bon]

Originally Posted by randomwalk

A grown man beating up 17 year olds.. Rigo's left is wild. Look at his fights. It is fast, but he drops his right and leaves himself open. The cans he has been fighting have been able to time the counter at times. Nonito will time it easily.

Juan Carlos Gomez: Gold Medal, World Junior Championships ( age 17 )
Joel Casamayor: Gold medal, World Junior Championships ( age 18 )
Felix Savon: Gold medal, 1987 PanAm games ( age 20 )
Ariel Hernandez: Gold medal, World junior Championships ( age 17 )
Emilio Correa: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 18 )
Rolando Garbey: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 20 )
Adolfo Horta: Gold medal, World Championships ( age 20 )
Angel Herrera: Gold medal, Olympics ( age 19 )
Jose Gomez: Gold medal, Olympics ( age 21 )
Roberto Balado: Gold medal, World Championships ( age 20 )
Hector Vinent: Gold medal, World Championships ( age 18 )
Ramon Garbey: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 20 )
Mario Kindelan: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 21 )
Guillermo Rigondeaux: Gold medal, Olympics ( age 20 )
Diogenes Luna: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 21 )
Odlanier Solis: Gold medal, PanAm games ( age 19 )
Yordenis Ugas: Gold medal, World Championships ( age 19 )
Roniel Iglesias: Gold medal, World Championships ( age 18 )
Robeisy Ramirez: Gold medal, 2012 Olympics ( age 18 )

Most Cubans win their first World amateur Titles in their late teens to early twenties ... Your myth is busted.

[IntentionalButt]

Marroquin is better than Mathebula.

[Cuban Bon Bon]

Originally Posted by bballchump11

I'll start off first saying Donaire is an extraordinary fighter and has the potential to become an atg especially with the talent around his weight class. I actually like Donaire as a fighter when he's on his game. But with that said, I feel he loses to Rigondeaux. Ironically I think Rigo loses to Mares and Mares loses to Donaire. Donaire>Rigo>Mares>Donaire Styles makes fights.

Donaire is similar to his other pinoy companion, Pacquiao where they both strive on fighters bringing the fight to them. That's why he was itching to fight Arce for the longest and why he'd beat Mares. If you look at his fights with Narvrez or Mathebula, he didn't look as good. He even blamed his lack of performance on them being in defensive mode.

Unfortunately for Donaire, while they were in defensive mode, Mathebula was outlanding him 231 punches to Donaire's 151. Narvarez was even up on a good amount of people's scorecards after 5 rounds vs Donaire.
http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/N...p5N-OCVOtl.jpg

Nonito has relied heavily on his speed, power, size and footwork to win him a number of fights. Combine that with his counterpunching style, he used his opponent's aggression against them and punched at the openings THEY CREATED. The reason he struggled with Narvrez and Mathebula is because they didn't give Donaire any openings, and Donaire doesn't know how to create them himself. Against Rigo, he'll find this immensely more difficult.

Yes Rigo has a suspect chin (so all the people picking him to lose based off that can shut up now). But that won't matter in this fight. Donaire can knock out any opponent with one shot, but he wasn't able to do it vs Mathebula or Narvrez. Donaire is going to have too hard of a time just trying to hit Rigo.

Rigondeaux is going to go out there and present no openings to Donaire and use his foot/headmovements to avoid anything big from Donaire. Yes Donaire is fast, but he tenses up and loads often with his punches, especially when he's frustrated. Rigondeaux has over 300 fights and can identify these things and anticipate his attacks. While Donaire is leaping forward trying to land his left hook, Rigondeaux is going to be countering him with his famous straight left.
http://thecomixverse.com/wp-content/...lin_Rd11KD.gif

No fighter in the game today is better at timing the straight left than Rigo and he'll be able to do it every time Donaire tips him off. When Donaire is in front of a defensive fighter, he tends to get very basic. Little feinting, showboating, dropping his hands, no body punching, no jab. The only thing I wonder about in this fight is how Donaire is going to take Rigondeaux's punch. If he tries coming forward and dropping his hands like he did vs Mathebula, then he may get stopped.

Very good analysis. I mostly agree with you except that Mares beats Rigo. Let's not forget that Rigo already beat Mares in the amateurs and even though it's a bit different he knows his style.

I think it's better to wait and see if this fight will go through as we all know how boxing is. If it happens though, I have to go with Rigondeaux by UD or late TKO.