Originally Posted by modernfonzie
In light of Dan Rafael giving estimates that "The Moment" did between 800k and 900k buys, we have to be fair and question his drawing power the same way we questioned Pacquiao's. With that being said, 900k is nothing to scoff at. Very few fighters even reach that number once, let alone having the be labeled a disappointment. But this is Floyd we're talking about, so we do have to watch it a little closer. No number has been confirmed yet, but Im writing this just as a response to Rafael's reports. What makes me say that we have to question his drawing power is that if this number is true, then this fight did exactly what the Guerrero fight did. The problem with that is that this fight actually had a storyline, a selling point, a star studded undercard, and an opponent coming off a high publicized win. If that doesnt do 1 million buys, then I dont know what will. Now, a 15 million dollar gate is great, don't get me wrong. And 900k is still going to bring in around 67,000,000 dollars of revenue, but that's not enough on his terms. So I ask myself why is this happening, why is his drawing power dropping? Or seemingly dropping. Here's what I've come up with. Feel free to disagree or whatever.
1. The Move From HBO to SHO.
Showtime is big, but HBO is huge. As in budgeting, as in subscribers, as in having a very rich boxing history. For the last 25 years, most people who watching premium boxing, watch HBO. Also they seem to do a better job at promoting the fights than Showtime. Showtime seems to be relying 100% on Floyd's drawing power, where as HBO did all they could to promote his fights, thus creating more buys. For example, I live in NY. When the Mosley, Ortiz, and Cotto fights came time, I would see advertisements everywhere. Posters on the bus, on the Subway, at Times Square, on Taxis. I don't get that from Showtime. During the Canelo fight, The Guerrero Fight and the Maidana fight, I barely saw any advertising. So that could be one. I'm happy that Floyd went for the larger money, but I can't help but a think a fight like Mayweather-Canelo would have done better on HBO.
HBO was HUGE. Showtime has IMO surpassed them with a better quality of fights, more fights and a much better overall broadcast team. The addition and Brian Kenney for the pre-fight and post-fight analysis is GOLDEN. Then adding Paulie and Mario Ranallo is flat-out Genuis. And although you may live in NY...I live in LA, and here...there were Mayweather vs Maidana billboards, signage and promotional material all over the city. And I don't kow who your cable provider is, but Time-Warner had the May/Chino promo in every commerical breal, every program and during every on-deman show and/or movie.
2. Floyd Doesn't Play The Villain As Much/Less Boxing, More Lifestyle
There was a point and time where you would turn on 24/7 and you'd see Floyd trash talking up a storm. Calling his opponents everything your mother told you never to say. But he would train his ass off, and it created the perfect contrast. A guy who talks like he has nothing to lose, but trains like he has everything to lose. In his advancing age, he doesnt talk as much trash. He's more subtle now, then I've ever seen him. I remember watching Floyd talk trash, and then work out like a mad man, and Im sure he still works out like that. But the All Access doesnt show that. It's like they drifted away from boxing, the blood sweat and tears, and focused more on his personal life. All Access Mayweather-Maidana was nice. I enjoyed it. But at times it felt like more of a Reality Show than a Pre Fight Report Card. I think they need to get back to showing what the people care about, the sport.
Yeah...you made some very good point here. But most of the people who buy PPV fights are pretty knowledgeable boxing fans and not just casual fans looking for an excuse to have several people in their home for beer and pizza. So people only want to pay maney to see the villain lose, right?
I mean no-one went to see the X-Men just to see Magneto kick some ass or the Green Goblin rip Spiderman to shreds...right? If People feel that Mayweather will win easy, very few people will pay to watch a fighter they don't even like, right? It's kind of easy to point out Oscar and Canelo fanbase...but the main reason why those fights did well is because people/fans actually believe that both fighters had a legitimate chance to beat Mayweather. And for the record...it's not mayweather fault that he is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition in his weight class.
3. Pacquiao's Fall From Grace
Whether or not anyone wants to admit it, Floyd and Pacquiao are tied to eachother. And they will be throughout history. Seeing that they both excelled in the same generation. But I have to wonder, whether or not the mystery of Mayweather-Pacquiao looking the least mysterious as it ever has with Floyd being the clear better/fresher of the two, has any effect on his stock. It would make sense. Pacquiao's numbers haven't been the same since he got knocked out by Dinamita, and neither have Floyd's. That could be one.
Yeah...that KO loss really killed the steam, momentum and overl JUICE for a potential Mega-fight.
4. Not A Casual Friendly Style/Guaranteed Outcome
I love watching Floyd fight, I've been watching him fight since I was 7 years old, with that being said, I know of plenty of casual fans who find him boring. When you add that with the fact that people are almost sure of the outcome of a Mayweather fight, people might not want to buy into that as much anymore. Casuals bought into Mayweather-Canelo because they thought he had a shot, but after that fight, it's hard to convince the public that anyone else has a shot too.
Also another good point. I came up with a quote: "Real Boxing Fans appreciate the Beauty of the Sport, Casual fans only like the Brutality of the Sport".
5. Fighting Once A Year Was A Big Deal
It seemed like when Floyd was fighting once a year, you couldnt miss it, because if you did, you'd have to wait a whole year to see him action again. Present day, he fights twice a year so people at times miss out because they know they can't catch it again soon. It might not feel like as much of an event anymore.
The twice a year pace is perfectly fine for me. I just wish the quality of competition was better.
I believe Mayweather-Maidana 2 will push over a million buys with the public interest going up from the first fight. But I thought I should post this just because its some food for thought. I'll wait for the official numbers to be released by SHO/CBS/GBP. But as of right now, Im wondering about Floyd's drawing power. I don't believe Floyd is costing SHO money because most of his added PPV revenue has a PPV incentive. Meaning the money on he receives on the back of his 32 million dollar guarantee all depends on how the PPV does. If the PPV isn't up to par, they dont have to pay him another dime, he isn't owed anything but his guarantee. So with a 15 million live gate, and a 67 million dollar PPV revenue, they'll be fine.
Personally, I think the best PPV fight to be made is a Mayweather vs Khan and Maidana vs Broner rematch. I think that would do very well.
But very good post.