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Old 11-10-2009, 12:02 PM   #1561
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

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tough to call, if Kang is still anywhere near the fighter he was in Pride then he takes this. will probably avoid it but may bet on Swick.
I think Bisping is a good fighter. Losing to Dan is no shame. No matter the age.

Its kinda like losing to Hopkins in boxing.
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Old 11-10-2009, 12:07 PM   #1562
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Well yeah, thats why its 49/1

I think Ward has a better chance than 3/1 to win the fight and if he wins its surely by decision. That's the main thing that matters in betting, not just who you think wins but chance/value.

nah i dont bet like that i go for straight up winners ;p
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Old 11-10-2009, 12:51 PM   #1563
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nah i dont bet like that i go for straight up winners ;p
same here, i try to bet the game or fight rather than the odds. do take a punt once in a while but i like to make 5-8 bet accumulators where everyting seems pretty safe. usually a good way to get 4 or 5x return.
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Old 11-10-2009, 01:49 PM   #1564
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nah i dont bet like that i go for straight up winners ;p
Nothing is a straight up winner or they'd just give you money.

The point is if I considered Ward/Kessler 60/40 in favour of Kessler there ain't much sense in taking Kessler at 4/9 when Ward is 3/1 on points. In the long run the 40% chance at 3/1 is going to earn more.
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Old 11-10-2009, 06:17 PM   #1565
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

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same here, i try to bet the game or fight rather than the odds. do take a punt once in a while but i like to make 5-8 bet accumulators where everyting seems pretty safe. usually a good way to get 4 or 5x return.
Can't avoid mathematics in the long term. Either the odds you bet on are better than the actual chance of the event happening, in which case you win in the long term, or they aren't, in which case you lose.
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Old 11-10-2009, 08:48 PM   #1566
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

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Nothing is a straight up winner or they'd just give you money.

The point is if I considered Ward/Kessler 60/40 in favour of Kessler there ain't much sense in taking Kessler at 4/9 when Ward is 3/1 on points. In the long run the 40% chance at 3/1 is going to earn more.
But thats ur personal opinion on a 60/40 fight ... i personally have it 75/25 in favour of Kessler ... so IMO Kessler 1/2 is worth a punt ... probably by tko ....
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Old 11-10-2009, 08:52 PM   #1567
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But thats ur personal opinion on a 60/40 fight ... i personally have it 75/25 in favour of Kessler ... so IMO Kessler 1/2 is worth a punt ... probably by tko ....
I'm talking betting strategy, that a good gambler always considers price/chance in his own mind. Forget about this specific fight !

As Cobbler said, maths always wins in the end.
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Old 11-10-2009, 09:01 PM   #1568
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I'm talking betting strategy, that a good gambler always considers price/chance in his own mind. Forget about this specific fight !

As Cobbler said, maths always wins in the end.
Disagree ! i back fighterd well in advance but will make a call on the price ... i fancied Froch to beat Dirrell and 4/6 was a top price but i also fancied Moore to win but 1/3 was no value - in the end i bacvked Rhodes in running 20's was a very nice winner.... but i wouldnt back a fighter purely on value ! - i know who im gonna back and will even if i dont get the odds i want .... i had Dawson at the weekend 2/7 didnt represent any value but i knew he was a winner....
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Old 11-10-2009, 09:07 PM   #1569
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

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Disagree ! i back fighterd well in advance but will make a call on the price ... i fancied Froch to beat Dirrell and 4/6 was a top price but i also fancied Moore to win but 1/3 was no value - in the end i bacvked Rhodes in running 20's was a very nice winner.... but i wouldnt back a fighter purely on value ! - i know who im gonna back and will even if i dont get the odds i want .... i had Dawson at the weekend 2/7 didnt represent any value but i knew he was a winner....
Aren't you agreeing with me then? You just said you didn't back Moore because he was 1/3. Isn't that exactly the point? If you were just picking winners you'd have picked Moore, but in your own mind the chance/price ratio was no good. And well, you were correct.

I'm not talking about backing on value, thats called a punt. That's what you do when you fancy a 50/1 shot on the horses and you lay a few pounds down. That's not a good strategy for betting on 2 men in a ring but nor is picking winners regardless of price, a healthy appreciation of both is neccessary to be successful in the long term.

If a 40% chance is 2/1 and the 60% chance is 4/9, presuming that actually turns out to be the case...trust me mathematically you are gonna do better backing the 40%.
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Old 11-10-2009, 09:20 PM   #1570
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

M Hatton vs NDou

Either to win on points: 1/2 (50 bet wins 75)
NDou stoppage: 11/4 (25 bet wins 93.75)

I still think M Hatton by decision at 7/2 are great odds, because there is no way he is winning this by stoppage.
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Old 11-10-2009, 09:28 PM   #1571
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M Hatton vs NDou

Either to win on points: 1/2 (50 bet wins 75)
NDou stoppage: 11/4 (25 bet wins 93.75)

I still think M Hatton by decision at 7/2 are great odds, because there is no way he is winning this by stoppage.
Nice one Kos. Thats potentially some free money right there. You are always on the lookout for the free money
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Old 11-10-2009, 09:38 PM   #1572
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

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Nice one Kos. Thats potentially some free money right there. You are always on the lookout for the free money
Sky in-play is the best thing ever as well for that. When Haye was at 2/1 after the first few rounds I was gutted a computer wasn't near me
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:30 PM   #1573
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

South Africa are favoured by 1 point over the French on friday

France: 15 Damien Traille, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Yann David, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Cedric Heymans, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Julien Dupuy, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Imanol Harinordoquy, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (captain), 5 Romain Millo-Chluski, 4 Lionel Nallet, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 William Servat, 1 Fabien Barcella Replacements: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Sylvain Marconnet, 18 Sebastien Chabal, 19 Julien Bonnaire, 20 Morgan Parra, 21 David Marty, 22 Maxime Medard.

Springboks: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Adi Jacobs, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morn Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (captain), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira. Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Wian du Preez, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Danie Rossouw, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Wynand Olivier

The French often do well against them but thats a strong team, 5/4 for SA -4 looks tasty. With the exception of Pier Spies thats a full strength pack and the French half backs are ass too and they are lacking pace in the backs.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:36 PM   #1574
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Default Re: British Forum BETTING thread

Thanks for that...... the -4 is certainly worth 10.

Habana is gonna destroy Clerc

I'm not sure about those halfbacks as you say, and a few odd positional selections also.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:37 PM   #1575
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South Africans lineup is scary good even without Spies.
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