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Old 11-07-2007, 08:51 AM   #181
Senya13
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I'm talking about pre-fight premises and conclusions (evaluation of possiblity of this or that event, based on existance or lack of precedents of it taking place ever before), with no hindsight knowledge. I was wrong in my conclusions, not because they were wrong per se, but because lack of precedents with such limited sampling doesn't mean zero possibility of event taking place, it has low possibility p1 (p1 tent to zero), but can still happen, but I, for my analysis, picked the opposite event with much higher possibility p2 = (1.0 - p1)
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Old 11-07-2007, 09:02 AM   #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senya13
I'm talking about pre-fight premises and conclusions (evaluation of possiblity of this or that event, based on existance or lack of precedents of it taking place ever before), with no hindsight knowledge. I was wrong in my conclusions, not because they were wrong per se, but because lack of precedents with such limited sampling doesn't mean zero possibility of event taking place, it has low possibility p1 (p1 tent to zero), but can still happen, but I, for my analysis, picked the opposite event with much higher possibility p2 = (1.0 - p1)
Well, i will humbly suggest to you that this type of logic is far from infallable when applied to boxing and that this case is as good an example of this as any.
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Old 11-07-2007, 09:13 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by Senya13
I'm talking about pre-fight premises and conclusions (evaluation of possiblity of this or that event, based on existance or lack of precedents of it taking place ever before), with no hindsight knowledge. I was wrong in my conclusions, not because they were wrong per se, but because lack of precedents with such limited sampling doesn't mean zero possibility of event taking place, it has low possibility p1 (p1 tent to zero), but can still happen, but I, for my analysis, picked the opposite event with much higher possibility p2 = (1.0 - p1)
Calzaghe would beat Kessler 4 times out of 5. Jab or no jab. Your event where Calzaghe can't handle the jab of a flatfooted, one-dimensional fighter who can't fight while being backed up is a big fat zero. Kessler has a punchers chance if he catches Joe coming in and capitalizes. That's his only chance.
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Old 11-07-2007, 11:30 AM   #184
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Anything can happen, but if applied right, you'll come up with more correct predictions than with wrong ones. In this particular case the error was in the part that Kessler comes to the fight in best shape, without injury which wouldn't allow him to throw his jab as often and with as much precision as is usual for him.
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Old 11-07-2007, 11:31 AM   #185
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who can't fight while being backed up
Some people simply don't know what logic is. Kessler had his best moments exactly when he was backed up, when he was catching Calzaghe with hard right hands to the head.
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Old 11-07-2007, 12:43 PM   #186
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Anything can happen, but if applied right, you'll come up with more correct predictions than with wrong ones.
You have your chance at redemption on Saturday night.

Mormeck Haye.

I would give you more credit for identifying the important factors in the fight than getting the actual outcome right.
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Old 11-07-2007, 01:33 PM   #187
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I didn't study their fights enough, sorry. Although I have 27 Haye fights, but didn't watch them except 2 or 3 that I saw while recording them. 5 Mormeck fights, but watched only 2 of them.
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Old 11-07-2007, 03:36 PM   #188
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I didn't study their fights enough, sorry. Although I have 27 Haye fights, but didn't watch them except 2 or 3 that I saw while recording them. 5 Mormeck fights, but watched only 2 of them.
No problem. I dont really know enough on this one to make a confident pick either.
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Old 11-07-2007, 09:48 PM   #189
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Some people simply don't know what logic is. Kessler had his best moments exactly when he was backed up, when he was catching Calzaghe with hard right hands to the head.
No, not when he was backed up per se - Rather when he measured Calzaghe rushing inside with a beautiful right hand uppercut. Kessler himself was not backing up, but he showed particularly against Andrade (and portions of Mundine and Calzaghe) that when he's being driven back he's not nearly as effective.
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Old 11-09-2007, 03:34 AM   #190
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I had it 116-113 for Calzaghe.

Gave Kessler rounds 1,4,5 and 12.
Gave Calzaghe rounds 2,3,6,7,9,10 and 11.
Had round 8 even.

I think you could make an argument for either man taking the 8th, and if you're being extra generous to the Dane, you could call the 10th round even. Giving Kessler the 8th and calling the 10th even, Calzaghe still wins by a point, so it's a clear cut victory for Joe.

I was impressed with Kessler's power punching in this fight, he was without doubt landing the harder blows, but he was just too inactive and allowed Calzaghe to steal rounds with his pitty pat stuff, which although not hard, was more than Kessler's negligible output.

I'm surprised that Kessler fought so mechanically and didn't mix things up a little. It was just jab and right hand over and over and over ad nauseum. His big downfall (along with his inactivity and his inability to consistently find the mark with the jab) was his failure to go to the body. This allowed Joe to conserve energy with which he dictated the later rounds.
Nice breakdown of the fight. We disagree on some of the rounds but our final score is pretty close.

I scored it 116-114 for Calzaghe.

Rounds 4,7,8and 12 for Kessler.

Rounds 1,3,6,9,10, and 11 for Calzaghe.

Rounds 2 and 5 I had even.

The fight was won by Calzaghe in rounds 9 thru 11, in those rounds Calzaghe mixed nicely his pitter pat with some nice power shots as well.
Calzaghe picked up the pace and Kessler just did'nt follow, it could have been a case where he was tired, or just did'nt want to risk reaching that point.....

We saw what Kessler could do when he really picked it up and had a strong final round, he should have done that when Calzaghe picked up his pace in rounds 9 thru 12.
Easier said than done of course, who knows how Kessler was feeling physically in those rounds. I may have been a case where he felt that he could'nt cross the finish line had he stepped up his pace.

In this wonderful sport of mano a mano, knowing ones own body and what it can exhert and handle is one of those assets that the great ones have figured out.
I kind of felt that Calzaghe just knew himself alot better than Kessler!

I thought it was a good fight. Alot more competitive that what the final scores showed.
I'd be interested to see a rematch myself!
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