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Old 11-02-2007, 04:23 PM   #61
Senya13
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You said "Calzaghe will be able to get inside Kessler's jab because of his superior speed", so I asked how exactly he's gonna do that. I figured, from your mention of "leaning", he'll be using upper body movement for that, and you basically confirmed this by saying "dipursing his weight in such a way as to .. prevent clean punching by an opponent". Which I argued that Mundine was better at upper body movement and had quick feet and hands and used angles for attacks too, but still arguably lost all rounds of the fight.

I didn't see logical connection between "losing early exchanges" and your answer to my question to clarify this part - "not dominating the fight". So I asked again what you meant originally.

Taking risks and using experience to find new ways of achieving some result are two different things, so I was trying to understand if both of them are included in term "higher gear" then? The dictionary I have provides a different meaning of "high gear" than that.

I know the importance of experience. But experience has to be relevant to the task to play significant role. If you have a very general experience, there's high probability that it won't allow you to solve some specialized task. The task is well known - excellent jab that will make it difficult to get inside. What experience of Calzaghe will help to neutralize it consistently, I haven't received a well-argumented explanation from anyone yet.
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Old 11-02-2007, 04:26 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by TBooze
The beauty of an Hypothesis is you can argue anything.
There's a theory of knowledge, and specialized branches of it that provide methods of testing the validity of a hypothesis or evaluate/improve the probability that it turns out to be true. It can be applied to different subjects, why not boxing then? There are some bettors who win more often than they lose, probably they know and use some methods for that?
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Old 11-02-2007, 04:34 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Senya13
There's a theory of knowledge, and specialized branches of it that provide methods of testing the validity of a hypothesis or evaluate/improve the probability that it turns out to be true. It can be applied to different subjects, why not boxing then? There are some bettors who win more often than they lose, probably they know and use some methods for that?
You are right but boxing is a strange beast. Knowledge helps to a point, but if I say pound for pound a 95lbs Flyweight from 1907 (Jimmy Wilde) could beat a 250lbs Heavyweight from 2000 (Lennox Lewis), it is very general and very hard to break down into anything resembling logic, IMO.
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Old 11-02-2007, 04:35 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senya13
You said "Calzaghe will be able to get inside Kessler's jab because of his superior speed", so I asked how exactly he's gonna do that. I figured, from your mention of "leaning", he'll be using upper body movement for that, and you basically confirmed this by saying "dipursing his weight in such a way as to .. prevent clean punching by an opponent". Which I argued that Mundine was better at upper body movement and had quick feet and hands and used angles for attacks too, but still arguably lost all rounds of the fight.
OK. Well speed, obviously in and of itself is not enough for Joe to be able to get inside the jab. He must properly deploy that speed. Is that what you mean? Calzaghe is faster and better at timing his opponent's jab than Mundine is. He will use this combination, plus the pretty up and down nature of his opponent to get inside this jab and dominate beat Kessler.

Kessler has indeed lost very, very few rounds in his career, from what I have seen. Here, he has only 12 rounds to fight, but against the best opponent he has faced, and an experienced one at that.

Quote:
I didn't see logical connection between "losing early exchanges" and your answer to my question to clarify this part - "not dominating the fight". So I asked again what you meant originally.
They mean one and the same. I think that the early part of the fight will be close. If you don't understand this, i'm not going to explain it any further.

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Taking risks and using experience to find new ways of achieving some result are two different things so I was trying to understand if both of them are included in term "higher gear" then?
No, I would not say that they are.


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I know the importance of experience. But experience has to be relevant to the task to play significant role.
Well yes and no. Being exhausted because of a fast pace against a pressure fighter will have a different set of exact circumstances to being exhuasted because you yourself have set a fast pace for tactical reasons - but any energy saving little tricks (finishing the round in your own corner, for example) still apply. Skills which have been learned the hard way are highly transferable. That should be obvious.

You can say, "he hasn't experienced anything like this before" for EVERY hardest fight of a fighters career. That does not mean that all the experience he has gained is suddently worthless.

If Calzaghe finds himself in trouble because of his opponents great jab he will have a better chance of pulling of an "in the ring" decode specifically because of his experience than a fighter who has ten proffesional fights.

Unless that fighter had had ten proffessional fights against Kessler.
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Old 11-02-2007, 04:55 PM   #65
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What evidence do we have that Calzaghe is better at timing a jab? What fighters with excellent jab did he face and how successful was he at avoiding getting hit?

What do you mean by "pretty up and down nature of his opponent"?

Well Calzaghe lost more rounds and to much inferior fighters than Kessler, and he also haven't faced anyone as good as Kessler.

You talking about Loughran with his supposed trick of finishing in his own corner. I always thought this thing overated. It doesn't take much energy to walk to your corner, as well as several additional seconds don't allow to refresh any significantly, unless we are talking about recovering after a knockdown.
The thing is Kessler hasn't shown any problems with stamina, on the contrary on some occasions he increased his punchrate in the late rounds, and he didn't look winded at the end. Kind of like this argument is sometimes used with RJJ, whereas there's no evidence whatsoever that more or less close to his prime Jones ever had any noticeable problems with stamina, even when he was throwing a lot of punches.
Comparing a seasoned pro with a newbie makes sense, that one pulls out some trick. But Kessler is no newbie, and regardless of his experience, the point is Calzaghe will have to find way to neutralize his jab, and I know no such experience where he has done so and I see no logical way how his long career will help him in solving this task. Calzaghe will have to find it in his experience, he can't produce it out of nowhere, and such skills (even if your trainer has come up with an idea how to do this) are not learnt in such a short time, we have to go back to some previous fights where Calzaghe gave hints how he's gonna solve it. So far I haven't heard anyone come up with such examples. That's why I cannot accept arguments that he's just gonna do this somehow, without much explanation other than speed, but where exactly did Calzaghe show such exceptional speed of getting past a good jab, or where did somebody else do this (to draw an analogy)?
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:02 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TBooze
You are right but boxing is a strange beast. Knowledge helps to a point, but if I say pound for pound a 95lbs Flyweight from 1907 (Jimmy Wilde) could beat a 250lbs Heavyweight from 2000 (Lennox Lewis), it is very general and very hard to break down into anything resembling logic, IMO.
It's not that hard. We have to come up with precedents of such feats, and evaluate if they are suitable to draw an analogy or not. If there are no precedents, we can raise the lower weight limit, ie, say 110lb instead of 95lb, and see if there are precedents of somebody with that weight accomplishing such task. If there are no or very few precedents of fighters in certain weight range beating somebody like Lewis, it's logical to conclude that somebody as low as 95lb won't be able to do that either.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:06 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senya13
What evidence do we have that Calzaghe is better at timing a jab? What fighters with excellent jab did he face and how successful was he at avoiding getting hit?
I beleive we have settled that Kessler has a better jab than the other fighters Joe has faced.

I beleive we have settled that this does not mean he will not be able to get away from the Kessler jab.

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What do you mean by "pretty up and down nature of his opponent"?
Straight forward.

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Well Calzaghe lost more rounds and to much inferior fighters than Kessler, and he also haven't faced anyone as good as Kessler.
Each is facing the best fighter they have ever faced. That is why it is so exciting. Calzaghe has indeed lost more rounds. He has also had more fights.

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You talking about Loughran with his supposed trick of finishing in his own corner. I always thought this thing overated. It doesn't take much energy to walk to your corner, as well as several additional seconds don't allow to refresh any significantly, unless we are talking about recovering after a knockdown.
No, I am not talking about Loughran, nor am I legitimising the example, nor am I doing the opposite now. Rather I am providing one concrete, acknowledged example of how experience can be beneficial to a fighter in a very general sense, which you seemed to be disputing.

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The thing is Kessler hasn't shown any problems with stamina, on the contrary on some occasions he increased his punchrate in the late rounds, and he didn't look winded at the end.
This sort of argument is often used to provide evidence for a fighter "getting stronger as the fight progresses", which does not happen (to be clear, I am not suggesting you are doing that). He is able to do this because he outclasses his opponents, forces them to work just to lose to him, and so has spent less energy by the middle rounds. I agree with you that he has no stamina issues.

Quote:
Kind of like this argument is sometimes used with RJJ, whereas there's no evidence whatsoever that more or less close to his prime Jones ever had any noticeable problems with stamina, even when he was throwing a lot of punches.
Though he seemed to have a preference for fighting in spurts.

Quote:
Comparing a seasoned pro with a newbie makes sense, that one pulls out some trick. But Kessler is no newbie, and regardless of his experience, the point is Calzaghe will have to find way to neutralize his jab, and I know no such experience where he has done so and I see no logical way how his long career will help him in solving this task.
Calzaghe's experience will help him to identify the point of no return, if he is indeed being dominated by the jab. Joe will obviously bring a plan for Kessler's jab. This plan will involve avoiding it and countering. If this plan isn't working it, Joe must weigh what he is seeking versus what he is eating (in terms of punches) - what the pay off will be if he is able to pull of the currently failing plan and how that pans out against the jabs he is currently eating and what the possible return is on the alternative plan. Joe Calzaghe, through his encounters with other, admitedly inferior jabs, will have these alternative plans in order, understand their possible consequences and whether or not that risk is worth taking.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:19 PM   #68
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That was my version, that once Calzaghe finds out it's not effective enough trying to rush past the opponent's jab, he'll lay back and try to work in countering mode. But that sets a new task of how to deal with punchrate (which is important in judging a fight), as this is no Jeff Lacy in front of him against whom it worked. What's he gonna do? Return to rushes, throw caution to the wind and go for a knockout? It seems obvious that Kessler is a harder puncher and has a good chin, and I think Calzaghe understands this as well. He may even realize he's losing on points and has to do something, but do what? There are numerous examples where very experienced and all time great fighters were unable to find an answer, especially at such age. 35 years means detoriation of coordination and as the result, loss of ability to throw combinations at long to mid-range as effectively as before, and thus choosing to work with single punches (as is the case with RJJ, as an example) or at close to mid-range only. He can't rely on a hope of landing one lucky punch, he has to work series of punches. Had Calzaghe been younger, I might give him a chance to come up with some plan, but not now.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:22 PM   #69
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We shall see.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:28 PM   #70
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Well, basically, you agree with my version then? You don't have an idea how he's gonna solve the problem of jab, other than hope that speed helps him, but which I find hard to believe due to lack of precedents and due to his age.

Still nobody else of people who so readily provide their predictions about virtual matchups that can never be tested, is willing to take risks where their qualification at such tasks can be tested. Sad, as it shows lack of such qualification, in my opinion.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:32 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senya13
Well, basically, you agree with my version then? You don't have an idea how he's gonna solve the problem of jab, other than hope that speed helps him, but which I find hard to believe due to lack of precedents and due to his age.
I don't have to "hope" his speeds helps him. Speed and timing of the jab is an accepted equaliser tried and tested, not a random plan thrown together by his handler. I expect Joe's speed to help him. If his advantage is non-exsistant or marginal he will be able to identify this problem early and adjust.

Don't forget, Calzaghe too has an excellent work-rate, AND that work rate is dependant upon quality (that is, a guy who is getting his head kicked in will soon see his work rate drop off).

No, I don't agree with your version of events. Most notabley because I expect Calzaghe to win.

Last edited by amy; 08-27-2006 at 11:56 PM.
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:43 PM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senya13
It's not that hard.
It is not hard to compare fighters a 100 years apart who had a weight difference in their primes of some 150+lbs, in a sport that has radically changed between each of their era's, in a mythical contest, at a mythical weight, under mythical rules, at a mythical distance?
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:44 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TBooze
It is not hard to compare fighters a 100 years apart who had a weight difference in their primes of some 150+lbs, in a sport that has radically changed between each of their era's, in a mythical contest, at a mythical weight, under mythical rules, at a mythical distance?
Stop being difficult
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Old 11-02-2007, 05:45 PM   #74
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Stop being difficult
Me? Difficult?



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Old 11-02-2007, 05:53 PM   #75
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I again have to ask for example of this timing of jab, where did Calzaghe show it? You can't learn this skill in a short time. Calzaghe is no Hopkins or RJJ in skills, there are actually few fighters who possess this skill, and Calzaghe is none of them.
Talking of which, one person at Russian forum where I posted this my prediction too, came up with an idea that Calzaghe might try to work as a spoiler, possibly a-la John Ruiz. But this again seems unlikely, as this is not Calzaghe's style, he doesn't know how to work in a clinch effectively, a-la Ricky Hatton, and this still doesn't solve the problem of jab, that he will be hit with regularly in his rushes (clinches will be broken up, he can't stay there forever and hope that home judges will give him the fight).

Calzaghe's workrate won't come into view, unless he finds a way how to get to his favorite punching range (mid-range) without suffering from counters. He can try throwing his hooks from long range as much as he wants, they'll just be fanning the air and exhausting him.

Then, in all, you don't have any version of how Calzaghe is going to win this fight, that is backed up by evidence and logic, and only hope for some ephemeral plan that will be suggested to Calzaghe by his experience. Kind of like some people here, who think that fighters of the past will somehow mysteriously beat any modern fighters, because of experience or some ephemeral qualities.
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