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Old 11-29-2007, 12:55 AM   #1
sues2nd
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Default How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Now, at the very beginning, let me get a few things out of the way. I am a VERY big Joe Calzaghe fan, and an even bigger Hopkins fan. I am also known pretty much around here as being generally unbiased....so if you dont intend to read this all the way through, or are looking for a poster to lean one way or another, stop reading now and hit the back button.



Now, lately, I have seen myself need to be the voice of the "other side" of the arguement on here, as I represent the vast minority in my stance on this one....but when it was asked how a person picking Bernard sees it even possible, I wanted to chime in, but didnt have the time. So I promised Decebal I would give him a run down when I got home from work.

So....here goes.

First, you have to look at each fighters strengths.

With Joe, you have speed and workrate being the biggest advantages over most fighters. He is also phenominal at using movement and attacking from different angles with surprising accuracy for such a high output fighter....quite simply, he arguably has the best offensive repetoir out there. Another thing that is sorely underrated by most is his ability to take the other fighter out of their game. He is also tremendously smart and athletically gifted. AND, he can take a punch.

With Bernard, you have a defensive master. A fighter with the best timing in the sport....coupled with pinpoint accuracy. His chin is granite, but doesnt even get tested with his defensive ability and counter punching (anyone wanna tell me when was the last time he was hit flush??? Think about it...). He is also EASILY the dirtiest fighter in the sport...something that he uses to his advantage better than anyone I have ever seen. And, in all my time of watching boxing, there have been VERY, VERY few (if any) fighters at frustrating the opponent into fighting his fight....his ring intellect is also among the best in the sport.

Now onto the breakdown...

I see Calzaghe coming at Hopkins, with Bernard content on waiting and countering. Tying him up whenever possible and making it VERY uncomfortable in the process (read: dirty). Joe at first throwing the majority of the punches, but every so often getting caught coming in. Joe has fantastic athletism, but tends to leave himself open when using the in and out movement.

Now, during the first couple of rounds, I see Calzaghe's speed being a factor...but the best weapon vs speed is timing, something that by the third or fourth round, Hopkins will have down. Hopkins will be landing the lead right at will and countering effectively as well. Also, Bernard loves to tie up and muscle his opponent immediately after landing it, and the longer we get into the fight, the more this will have an effect on how the fight is fought.

Later into the fight, I see Joe still trying to step up the pace, but constantly being tied up, countered, and peppered with the lead right (still one of the best weapons in the sport). The middle rounds will be ugly (read:dirty)....Hopkins specialty.

By the end of the fight, both fighters, who normally are the fresher men (Bernard and Joe have arguably the best stamina in boxing), will start to wear down...with Hopkins tiring on the times Joe is able to step up the pace...and Calzaghe tiring on the sheer physicality of the fight (something that Joe isnt normally used to)...and what will probably be the dirtiest fight (vs the dirtiest fighter) he has ever been in.

I see the difference in this fight being Bernard's timing vs Joe's tendancy to leave himself open and the simple fact that it will be DIRTY. But there will be one stat that will SHOCK everyone.

Hopkins will outland Calzaghe, due to his accuracy and Joe's inability to keep the fight high paced.

He will keep a reasonable output going and land at a high rate. He will not simply be outworked like most think. Hopkins is too smart of a fighter to go into this fight like he did vs Taylor...where he wanted to let Jermain punch himself out. We all seem to be overlooking that Winky throws just as many punches as Joe does, but was outworked and outlanded by Bernard. Hopkins also hit him cleaner than anyone has in a loooooong time (not an easy task...regardless of weight, Winky's defense is among the best in the sport).

Hopkins will take it by UD 8-4 or 7-5. Joe will win 2 of the first 3 and being able to up the pace enough in a couple others to take them....with Bernard taking the early-middle and championship rounds (rounds Bernard NEVER loses).

This will be followed by many, MANY of the Calzaghe fans on here calling Hopkins dirty and refusing to give any credit to him. The win will be clear, but it wont matter to them. They will cry robbery, they will bash Hopkins further.....but the more reasonable ones will be won over....as will vice versa as, with the physicality of the fight, Joe will show the heart of a champion.

Saying all of this....I totally expect that most of you will flame me for this....not take any of it into account and generally disregard it....but for the ones that read it, and realize that even tho this isnt what you think, but is well thought out and at the very least based on observation, history and the stylistic matchups, I thank you.

As I said, these are two of my favorite all time fighters...

(There ya go Dec...as promised brotha!!! )
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Old 11-29-2007, 01:11 AM   #2
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Good post.

I would just like to add that i can't remember when was the last time Hopkins was hit flush. Yeah, he's that good.

Second, I see Hopkins doing what he did against Wright. That's moving side to side and making Joe C come to him. And when Hopkins wants to initiate the action, simple come in whenever he chooses with his head down and try to land a counter right hand. And he will follow that up with 5-6 punch combinations just like he did against Wright. And i can see how Joe C can get frustrated.

Third, let's remember Hopkins has been a different fighter since moving up to LHW. He's been a more offensive fighter and been a lot more busier. He feels more better in his new body.

I hope this fight happens.
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:01 AM   #3
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

I'm a huge fan of Hopkins, but I think you're looking at this matchup as if it is prime vs prime. It is crazy to think Bernard has the stamina of Calzaghe or even very good stamina at this point. His workrate is also horrible. He will try to outmuscle Calzaghe, but it will make him very tired too and not benefit him as much as it did before. Calzaghe is not Winky, he is very large and strong himself. Hopkins' timing is not what it once was and his speed has faded significantly, so he will have a hard time connecting on the much quicker Calzaghe. Joe is so quick on his feet and awkward that Hopkins will have more trouble clinching with him than he did against other fighters he's faced in recent years (or anybody since Jones). Finally, the great activity level and in-out movement of Calzaghe will just be a nightmare for Hopkins, who is way, way, way past his best. Someone with the activity level and solid skills of Glen Johnson would give Hopkins all he could handle right now, so thinking that he has any chance of winning a 12 round fight against Calzaghe isn't too logical.

To have a much better chance of winning, Hopkins would have to take a huge risk and make it a brawl early on. He would never do this because if it didn't work he would get stopped, but this is the only way I could see him win. If he headbutts Calzaghe, gets lucky, and opens up a huge cut on his head in the first round it would make Joe more willing to engage in a wild fight. After that Hopkins would have to go all out and throw everything he has at him and act like it's a 4 round fight. In these rounds he could possibly win by TKO if Calzaghe gets too confident and makes some dumb mistakes. But the chances of him connecting on Calzaghe with consecutive flush power shots are slim to none, so this is all just a tiny possibility. I would love to see Hopkins get this win and become a top 5 ATG, but this is all just a fantasy. This fight does not need to happen because Hopkins, a rare boxer who has never been dominated during a fight in his life will suffer exactly that. So please Bernard, stop talking and making it seem like you want this.
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:21 AM   #4
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Quote:
Originally Posted by huki
I'm a huge fan of Hopkins, but I think you're looking at this matchup as if it is prime vs prime. It is crazy to think Bernard has the stamina of Calzaghe or even very good stamina at this point. His workrate is also horrible. He will try to outmuscle Calzaghe, but it will make him very tired too and not benefit him as much as it did before. Calzaghe is not Winky, he is very large and strong himself. Hopkins' timing is not what it once was and his speed has faded significantly, so he will have a hard time connecting on the much quicker Calzaghe. Joe is so quick on his feet and awkward that Hopkins will have more trouble clinching with him than he did against other fighters he's faced in recent years (or anybody since Jones). Finally, the great activity level and in-out movement of Calzaghe will just be a nightmare for Hopkins, who is way, way, way past his best. Someone with the activity level and solid skills of Glen Johnson would give Hopkins all he could handle right now, so thinking that he has any chance of winning a 12 round fight against Calzaghe isn't too logical.

To have a much better chance of winning, Hopkins would have to take a huge risk and make it a brawl early on. He would never do this because if it didn't work he would get stopped, but this is the only way I could see him win. If he headbutts Calzaghe, gets lucky, and opens up a huge cut on his head in the first round it would make Joe more willing to engage in a wild fight. After that Hopkins would have to go all out and throw everything he has at him and act like it's a 4 round fight. In these rounds he could possibly win by TKO if Calzaghe gets too confident and makes some dumb mistakes. But the chances of him connecting on Calzaghe with consecutive flush power shots are slim to none, so this is all just a tiny possibility. I would love to see Hopkins get this win and become a top 5 ATG, but this is all just a fantasy. This fight does not need to happen because Hopkins, a rare boxer who has never been dominated during a fight in his life will suffer exactly that. So please Bernard, stop talking and making it seem like you want this.
Good post...tho as much as you feel I am overrating what Hopkins still has left in the tank, I feel you are underrating it just as much, if not more so.
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:22 AM   #5
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

ludacrous
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:26 AM   #6
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

I basically completely agree, Great analysis..
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:42 AM   #7
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

For what its worth my two cents. Calzaghe has something Winky does not, footwork. The only reason Winky was ineffective against Hopkins was the simple fact that he plants his feet when countering. Hopkins actually had the fresher legs. Joe does quite well throwing punches while bouncing about on his toes. This combined with his defensive movement and ability to avoid the same successful punches from his opponent as the fight goes on equals victory. Hopkins avoided Toney for a reason, angles. Joes has that and stamina to boot. You make a very good argument and are not simple minded, I respect that, however you are overlooking some of Joe's attributes, which is common when giving a good argument for your favorite to win. I am sure everyone who follows boxing has made the same error, myself included.
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:16 AM   #8
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Quote:
Originally Posted by duran77
For what its worth my two cents. Calzaghe has something Winky does not, footwork. The only reason Winky was ineffective against Hopkins was the simple fact that he plants his feet when countering. Hopkins actually had the fresher legs. Joe does quite well throwing punches while bouncing about on his toes. This combined with his defensive movement and ability to avoid the same successful punches from his opponent as the fight goes on equals victory. Hopkins avoided Toney for a reason, angles. Joes has that and stamina to boot. You make a very good argument and are not simple minded, I respect that, however you are overlooking some of Joe's attributes, which is common when giving a good argument for your favorite to win. I am sure everyone who follows boxing has made the same error, myself included.
Again, good post, I can respect the angle piece, but Hopkins also uses angles and movement very, VERY well. Cant forget that. Plus, tho Joe is twice the offensive fighter Bernard is, Hopkins is twice the defender/counterpuncher Joe is.

But one thing I cant go with is...Hopkins avoiding Toney? Toney hasnt been a MW since 1992....which surprisingly was 3 years before Hopkins had even won a title. It wasnt a case of avoidance as it was being at different weight classes at different times.
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:47 AM   #9
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

The post sounds well -argued, but I disagree. A few factors are missing in your equasion:

1. Hopkins appears to have great stamina in part because of his slow starting. See both Taylor fights. Calzaghe has phenomenal stamina fighting EVERY round at full speed and unbelievable workrate. Calzaghe forces his pace on every opponent. No way Hopkins can match Calzaghe for stamina.
2. I just rewatched Hopkins Taylor 1: Hopkins was bothered by Taylor's speed and seemed surprised at times that Taylor was able to land shots. Sure he has great defensive skills, but before Taylor was tiring, he was able to land some good shots. If Taylor's speed was bothering Hopkins, what would Calzaghe's speed do to him?
3. Calzaghe's style and is very difficult for a counterpuncher. A counterpuncher usually counters after the opponent has thrown 1 - 3 shots. Calzgahe often just doesn't stop punching, as Kessler said "if you get hit 20 times, it confuses you". Calzaghe looks open for counters when he throws a lot, but unlike most fighters who leave themselves open, he continues to throw punches longer.
4. I know everybody thinks that Hopkins is mentally strong and I agree, but I would argue that he also has mental weaknesses, unlike Calzaghe. Hopkins gave a winnable fight away against Taylor. He celebrated in the later rounds, so sure of himself. To me, that is the entitlement - type confidence that is actually a mental weakness and as we saw, it cost Hopkins the fight. Something like that would never happen to Calzaghe. He was never close to losing. He hasn't lost a fight since age 17, any other fighter in boxing history with such a winning streak??? Calzaghe rises to the occasion more reliably than Hopkins.
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:03 AM   #10
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Quote:
Originally Posted by sues2nd
Now, at the very beginning, let me get a few things out of the way. I am a VERY big Joe Calzaghe fan, and an even bigger Hopkins fan. I am also known pretty much around here as being generally unbiased....so if you dont intend to read this all the way through, or are looking for a poster to lean one way or another, stop reading now and hit the back button.



Now, lately, I have seen myself need to be the voice of the "other side" of the arguement on here, as I represent the vast minority in my stance on this one....but when it was asked how a person picking Bernard sees it even possible, I wanted to chime in, but didnt have the time. So I promised Decebal I would give him a run down when I got home from work.

So....here goes.

First, you have to look at each fighters strengths.

With Joe, you have speed and workrate being the biggest advantages over most fighters. He is also phenominal at using movement and attacking from different angles with surprising accuracy for such a high output fighter....quite simply, he arguably has the best offensive repetoir out there. Another thing that is sorely underrated by most is his ability to take the other fighter out of their game. He is also tremendously smart and athletically gifted. AND, he can take a punch.

With Bernard, you have a defensive master. A fighter with the best timing in the sport....coupled with pinpoint accuracy. His chin is granite, but doesnt even get tested with his defensive ability and counter punching (anyone wanna tell me when was the last time he was hit flush??? Think about it...). He is also EASILY the dirtiest fighter in the sport...something that he uses to his advantage better than anyone I have ever seen. And, in all my time of watching boxing, there have been VERY, VERY few (if any) fighters at frustrating the opponent into fighting his fight....his ring intellect is also among the best in the sport.

Now onto the breakdown...

I see Calzaghe coming at Hopkins, with Bernard content on waiting and countering. Tying him up whenever possible and making it VERY uncomfortable in the process (read: dirty). Joe at first throwing the majority of the punches, but every so often getting caught coming in. Joe has fantastic athletism, but tends to leave himself open when using the in and out movement.

Now, during the first couple of rounds, I see Calzaghe's speed being a factor...but the best weapon vs speed is timing, something that by the third or fourth round, Hopkins will have down. Hopkins will be landing the lead right at will and countering effectively as well. Also, Bernard loves to tie up and muscle his opponent immediately after landing it, and the longer we get into the fight, the more this will have an effect on how the fight is fought.

Later into the fight, I see Joe still trying to step up the pace, but constantly being tied up, countered, and peppered with the lead right (still one of the best weapons in the sport). The middle rounds will be ugly (read:dirty)....Hopkins specialty.

By the end of the fight, both fighters, who normally are the fresher men (Bernard and Joe have arguably the best stamina in boxing), will start to wear down...with Hopkins tiring on the times Joe is able to step up the pace...and Calzaghe tiring on the sheer physicality of the fight (something that Joe isnt normally used to)...and what will probably be the dirtiest fight (vs the dirtiest fighter) he has ever been in.

I see the difference in this fight being Bernard's timing vs Joe's tendancy to leave himself open and the simple fact that it will be DIRTY. But there will be one stat that will SHOCK everyone.

Hopkins will outland Calzaghe, due to his accuracy and Joe's inability to keep the fight high paced.

He will keep a reasonable output going and land at a high rate. He will not simply be outworked like most think. Hopkins is too smart of a fighter to go into this fight like he did vs Taylor...where he wanted to let Jermain punch himself out. We all seem to be overlooking that Winky throws just as many punches as Joe does, but was outworked and outlanded by Bernard. Hopkins also hit him cleaner than anyone has in a loooooong time (not an easy task...regardless of weight, Winky's defense is among the best in the sport).

Hopkins will take it by UD 8-4 or 7-5. Joe will win 2 of the first 3 and being able to up the pace enough in a couple others to take them....with Bernard taking the early-middle and championship rounds (rounds Bernard NEVER loses).

This will be followed by many, MANY of the Calzaghe fans on here calling Hopkins dirty and refusing to give any credit to him. The win will be clear, but it wont matter to them. They will cry robbery, they will bash Hopkins further.....but the more reasonable ones will be won over....as will vice versa as, with the physicality of the fight, Joe will show the heart of a champion.

Saying all of this....I totally expect that most of you will flame me for this....not take any of it into account and generally disregard it....but for the ones that read it, and realize that even tho this isnt what you think, but is well thought out and at the very least based on observation, history and the stylistic matchups, I thank you.

As I said, these are two of my favorite all time fighters...

(There ya go Dec...as promised brotha!!! )
Thank you very much indeed!

Let me poonder it a while longer before I reply!
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:14 AM   #11
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Default Re: How Hopkins will win (as promised to Decebal)

Hopkins to school Calzaghe and retire an ATG.
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