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Old 06-12-2012, 01:46 PM   #31
purephase
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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Originally Posted by Robney View Post

But like he said, it depends on multiple factors that he couldn't include in the actual calculation.

We've seen here that about 90% scored it for Pac, 5% a draw and 5% for Bradley.
If you take away 50% from the Bradley pickers that were essentially trolling you keep about 2.5% who actualy think he won, or are such a big Timmy fan or hate Pac that much they couldn't come up with a realistic score.

That's about as much as the actual press who scored it for Bradley.

So you can say the chance of Bradley winning outright was about 1 to 40 x2 (2 judges) = 1 to 80, not counting in the possibilty of corruption.
(that's far from 1 to 3300)
Rigorous analysis here.
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Old 06-12-2012, 01:55 PM   #32
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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Originally Posted by Robney View Post

But like he said, it depends on multiple factors that he couldn't include in the actual calculation.

We've seen here that about 90% scored it for Pac, 5% a draw and 5% for Bradley.
If you take away 50% from the Bradley pickers that were essentially trolling you keep about 2.5% who actualy think he won, or are such a big Timmy fan or hate Pac that much they couldn't come up with a realistic score.

That's about as much as the actual press who scored it for Bradley.

So you can say the chance of Bradley winning outright was about 1 to 40 x2 (2 judges) = 1 to 80, not counting in the possibilty of corruption.
(that's far from 1 to 3300)

your math is off.

Assuming a 1/40 chance of Bradley getting the nod, the probability of 2/2 randomly selected judges scoring the fight for Bradley is the joint probability 1/40 * 1/40 = 1/1600.

But that's not right either. Because there was a sample of 3. So we need the compute the probability that 2/3 judges scored it for bradley.

And the probability of that happening is .0018 (I'll spare you the math)
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Old 06-12-2012, 01:57 PM   #33
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

his stats made me rewatch rounds 8 and 11. 11 was a definite Timmeh round. emmanuel didn't do too much in 8 outside of landing 2-3 punches.

I still stand by Timmmeh winning the 1st, 10-12th. 8 can arguably go to either.

Timmeh at best won 5 rounds. Now only if HBO did their job right, no one would be thinking Timmeh only won like 2 rounds at most
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Old 06-12-2012, 02:02 PM   #34
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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Old 06-12-2012, 02:07 PM   #35
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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What I found interesting was his suggestion of increasing the number of judges. Not only would that fix incompetent judging, but if you were to try and pay off 4 judges (double the number needed to get a normal decision) it would look TOO obvious. Beyond ridiculous. I mean if boxing wanted to truly sink itself into the grave, it would be like a jury convicting a clearly innocent man. It would be too messy and too many tracks to cover.

I very much enjoy this idea and support it. An even better addition would be to have them seated at different areas around the ring.
How about- headphone for judges? Or someway to reduce the amount of audience noise. Put them in soundproof booths if you have to. This obviously is the not the case for this fight, but just do it anyway. Makes sense.
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Old 06-12-2012, 02:40 PM   #36
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

i dont think it will mean anything unless the judges views are better.
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Old 06-12-2012, 02:57 PM   #37
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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Originally Posted by IntentionalButt View Post


You can still get fat if you sit around drinking 2% milk all day, can't you?
statistically youre included on the 2% stupid people to sit and drink 2% milk all day. LMAO!
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Old 06-12-2012, 02:59 PM   #38
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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Old 06-12-2012, 03:02 PM   #39
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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This is an amazingly clear .gif image, I wonder how it was made so well.
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Just made this. Each frame has a 0.1 second delay. You just need a high quality video and then you crop it.
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Old 06-12-2012, 03:10 PM   #40
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

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I'm pretty sure the blind 74 year old Ford would tell you all of those missed wildly because the arrogant old shit cant admit that he is too old to judge a fight.
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Old 06-12-2012, 03:14 PM   #41
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Default Re: STATS GURU: Pacquiao's Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

They should have 7 judges, the two highest extremes and lowest extremes should be thrown out and they should only count the 3 averages
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