British Forum BETTING thread

ecked the prices lat

yeah a mate of mine is a trader for corals he put them up last week i havent checked the prices lately as i hate golf i belive churchill summed it up best when he said golfs a terrible way to spoil a good walk however my mates a good judge and he put these up when we was wachin our dog run (badly )so i backed them

 

If you have five minutes

Tips: Numerous (see below)
TV: Skysports One from 9.PM
Stakes: British/Commonwealth Light Heavy (Bellew/McCenzie and WBO Super Feather (Burns/Cook).

A big card and a big opportunity to make up for last weeks loss (all be it a small one). It is unusal for a tipster to predict every match up on a card but that is exactly what I'm attempting here. I'm throwing in some different types of bets that some people maybe unaware of but don't let that fact put you of, this card is well suited to multiple betting opportunites. Let's start with Gavin vs Woodhouse;

This one is of particular interest to me, not because they both hail from my neck of the woods but because this has the look of a fun fight, one that has been brewing for a while now. Woodhouse has dropped two decisions in his shortish career thus far, he is quite hard to hit flush with any power shot, to the head or body. He covers up well and has the Abraham/Winky Wright abilty to tuck his elbows right down by his hips, meaning it would take an advanced level fighter to navigate past this above average defence. Unfortunately for the ex Blues Midfielder, the guy in the opposite corner is well on the way (in my humble opinion) to becoming an A+ fighter. Gavin is freakishly talented, he possess; superb angles, excellent footwork, varied punches and perhaps the most relevant attribute in this fight, very good body work. If Gavin turns up here, I see his speed and combination punching gradually overcoming Woodhouse and his defensive tactics. My base bet for this fight would be to cover rounds 4-6 and 7-9 (for Gavin), a technical stoppage is likely here, I would be impressed if Gavin knocks out Woodhouse however.

Up next (I presume) is the rematch between Bellew and McKenzie, these two met back in November if I recall correctly. Anyone who can remember will know Bellew was dropped in the first and second rounds of this fight before going on to stop McKenzie in the 8th, people with an even better memory willl know that Bellew was dropped two times previous to this against bog standard oppostion, Ajisafe and the unkown Andrejevs. Bellew for me has a lot of things to work on, the most noticeable one being core strength, alot of people question a fighters chin when he is put down but alot of the time it has alot to do with weight and conditioning, see Khan vs Prescott and then Khan vs Maidana to get what I'm saying here. Bellew is not a big light heavy, compared to say a Pascal or Diaconu but then again you might look at his decent 66% knockout ratio and think otherwise. But anyway, I think Bellew takes this by knockout and his price is floating above odds on for this to happen which I think is quite generous myself. The main factor in this fight is McKenzie's stamina, more specifically how bad it is. I would go as far to say if Bellew had a more rounded attack he would get his opponent out there within six rounds but I do worry for the 'Bomber' long term as he lacks the skills of a potential world class fighter that your going to need in the coming years in the Light Heavy division, considering how many quality fighters will be fighting at 175lbs (Dawson, Cloud, Clev and all the guys from the Super Six, maybe Pavlik).

Now for the original main event, Burns vs Cook. Let me start by saying this is farcial match up, even by ******/WBO standards. Cook has had one fight in the last two years and from what I read in a well known British Boxing Magazine he is basically saving up for a pub in Tenerife. This leads me to boldy suggest that Cook will lose fight, and probably by KO. I have to put the word probably in there because Burns is not exactly a big hitter even though he is big for a Super Feather. I'm not gonna waste much time here, Burns will get him out of there with his jab and body punches, of which he is quite adept at. You can actually get above evens with most bookmakers for a Burns knockout. Cook is on the beach.

Finally, the rather fascinating Lightweight clash between two borderline world level fighters. Kevin Mitchell cannot really afford to lose this one, ****** looks as if he is losing patience with the eastender for a whole number of reasons, your talking about a guy here who blew a six figure sum on Booze after his early round stoppage to Michael Katisdis. So we have to consider whether Mitchell is in the right place for what will be a big challenge. You also have think whether throwing Mitchell back into the spotlight without a warm up is a wise call. What strikes me is that the guy who is know labelled as the Boxer (Mitchell) has a comfortbaly higher knockout percentage than the guy who is known as the slugger (Murray). Mitchell is a talented guy, who has shown he can move laterally, fight on the backfoot and go to war in various fights, Murray I think it's fair to say divides opinion across the Boxing fraternity. In the same way Carl Froch did when he jumped onto the world scene, there are a few parrallels between the two. They look awkard and unbalanced at times but they can box very well when they choose too. My base bet here is for the fight to go over 9.5 rounds, mainly because I rate both fighters in the defensive department, I believe Murray has the slightly better offense, he has a more consistent jab than Mitchell but he does lack the movement and all round ring intelligence that Mitchell has in his locker. If your looking for a winner here, I will stick my neck out and say Murray on points. This is one of the alternative bets that you should consider, I'm throwing in some multiples here because betting on just one or two bouts in Boxing is not always worth it considering how the bookies price the fights up;

Base Bets

Gavin 4pts rounds 4-6 Gavin 4pts 7-9, both 5/1 with Bet365
Bellew by knockout 7pts, 3/5with Bet365
Burns by knockout 6pts, 5/4 with Bet365
Over 9.5 rounds (Murray/Mitchell) 5pts, 4/5 with Bet365

Now if your looking at a standard four-fold here, expect a 30/1 shot at all these coming off. If you are looking at a more conservative approach, you might want to consider a yankee. This involves 11 bets with four selections, at least two must be correct to gain some money back. If you are a brave man and fancy a fiver on the above, you would bet 55 of your British pounds and you could potentially win 700 pound plus. If say the most unlikely bet does not come off, in this case Gavin, you would still profit 30 pounds. Now obviously you need four bets here so you have to get rid of one of the Gavin base bets, but because I am a gambling addict I'm putting this on the alternative bet;

Gavin 4pts rounds4-6, 5/1 Bet365
Murray on points 5pts. 12/5 Bet365
Bellew by KO 7Pps, 3/5 Bet365

I'm looking at a patent here, which is seven bets with 3 selections, you need just one for a return. Using the five pound example, if all three come of you will net a tidy 360 pound profit.

Whatever your going on enjoy the fights, as it's rare that such a card is put together and stays together (fingers crossed).

@tofutez

 

Huck - by stoppage
Gavin - by stoppage
Burns - Win
Bellew - by stoppage

4.6/1 with skybet £10.

Murray v Mitchell, I left this one alone, although I favour murray.

 

Huck TKO/KO
Burns TKO/KO
Green on points
Mitchell - Murray over 9.5

5 returns 65.

Might have a dabble on this with boylesports.

Cook is rusty and washed up at this stage, I think Burns could stop him late with Cook exhausted.

Green isn't stopping Tarver, and Tarver isn't knocking green out. The logical option is a Green points win.

I think Mitchell - Murray goes the distance.

Defiantly worth a punt IMO.

 

fortunes comin for burns to stop nicky cook ladbrokes have suspended bettin on burns winning in round 3
how odd is this a fighter who has only stopped 8 opponents in 33 fights bettin backed to win by an early ko

 

Feel a bit more confident about my bets now, it's hard to bet on a guy to win by KO when he has such a low KO %.

Obviously Cooks weigh in has got people rushing to the bookies.

 

Surely people wouldn't go THAT mad on Burns stoppage because he was over by 4oz?

 

On Dustin Johnson to win the open in running at 66/1.

 

i think you can be very very confident with this one mate and i dont think its got anything to do with the weigh in lets just say i dont expect cook to be in there for long
btw round 3 has gone from 25s with ladbrokes ro 14/1 and coral have just suspended there round betting market

 

Have you heard anything fishy about it or are you just speculating based on the market movement mate?

 

Well you can still get 25/1 at Skybet if you are interested

 

Pawel Wolak tonight 11/10 to win on points with sportingbet.

 

Just put on a treble accumulator with William Hill.

Frankie Gavin TKO
Ricky Burns Decision
Tony Bellew KO

£10 pays £54

 

Ricky Burns Round 3 in the top bets on Oddschecker

 

its 16/1 with skybet suspended with coral and paddy power and into 10/1 with will hill