Pac-JMM vs JMM-PBF Analysis & Prediction

Just my opinion guys, I'm usually quite accurate with Pac fights but IMO this is one of the harder fights to predict despite their history and the odds.

JMM-Mayweather:

A lot of people thinks Pac blows JMM out because of JMM's performance against Mayweather. I dont think that is necessarily the case, consider the following factors:

1) Styles makes fights. As much as people would like to blame it on the weight, this is the biggest factor in JMM looking poor against PBF. Recall how JMM struggled with an old Casamayor before the KO. JMM doesn't like counterpunchers, recall how he struggled against Chris John heck recall how he struggled against a past it MAB who counterpunched with him. JMM's style is such that he throws beautiful counter combinations, so when someone comes at him, its perfect as he can interrupt them and the opponent puts themselves in range for his combinations.

As a counterpuncher, the hardest thing to deal with is another counterpuncher who is taller, and faster. Not only is PBF taller and faster, he is also bigger, better reflexes, better defense, better footwork and better timing. At any weight, PBF will make JMM look foolish, perhaps the only difference is that JMM's strength and punching power would be more of an issue in the lower weights. The longer faster counterpuncher simply controls the range and punches when he likes, the shorter counterpuncher will have to make up that extra inch or two in length everytime he attempts to counterpunch, that was JMM's problem, he couldn't as PBF controlled that range very well.


2) Weight. Following from the above, there were many times when PBF was within range of JMM and JMM's punches just bounced off Floyd. JMM did look slower but to be honest, not that much slower than usual, he just didn't carry the power. Look at the difference in facial expression when PBF was getting muscled by Ortiz inside vs JMM trying to do the same. PBF knows he was in there with a bloated LW.

This may still be the case for Pac-JMM 3, but a lot of people scream out PED's for Pac destroying these bigger guys. I think its more to do with proper strength and conditioning and supplements, sports science allows us to get bigger and stronger faster. JMM has hired a very knowlegeable guy in trying to go up in weight, he looks strong at this weight and Heredia is no idiot. He hasn't had JMM throwing rocks about, using methods from 1920's, he's used science to bulk JMM up and I wouldn't be surprised if JMM has climbed and carried the weight as well as Pac has. Both men will be around the same size fight night. Also bare in mind this is JMM's 3rd fight above LW.


Now analysing Pac-JMM there really isn't much to say, the first 2 fights are there. IMO JMM is stylistically the worst matchup for Pac. Someone who can counterpunch and isn't afraid to take some in order to counter, JMM DARES to interrupt Pac mid combination to land his own, that is the difference between him and recent Pac opponents. Recent Pac opponents would cover up or run and wait for Pac's hailstorm to finish before countering, JMM will interrupt that and break Pac's rhythm. As Pac launches himself into JMM to land his combination, when JMM interrupts him, Pac's head and body has been placed in perfect range for JMM to land those counterpunch combinations. That is why JMM has a lot more success with guys who come to him vs guys who will land 1 punch and get out.

Pac has added new tricks to his game, a much better fighter but it still doesn't change the styles matchup. Pac's power p4p may remain the same also, IMO its hard to gauge Pac's power, Diaz and ODLH says he doesnt hit hard, Mosley and Hatton would say the opposite. Either way I think it will come down more to IF JMM carried his chin or not, cause Pac carried his power. If JMM carried his chin, this will be a repeat of the first 2 fights, but will probably swing in Pac's way via UD.


There are so many unknown factors going into this fight, its really had to predict. I think Pac will go in there thinking he's the bigger stronger man, and he may be. He will KD JMM like in the previous fights early, except this time I think JMM will feel the impact more and Pac finishes him within the next couple of rounds. JMM will probably carry his power, his speed and strength, however his chin isn't used to getting hit by a puncher at WW and that will be the difference.

Pac KO 6.

If Pac doesn't KO him early and JMM survives, I'm pretty sure JMM will opt to box him more carefully(after tasting the power) and lose a 12 round UD, probably somewhere around 7-5.

Odds on JMM is 21/1 by decision at betfair, despite my prediction for this fight, those odds are too good to ignore

 

Initially I would have bet my lifesavings on Pac by KO, and although I still predict a KO, it wouldn't surprise me the slightest bit if JMM makes it a tough fight again and goes to decision.

JMM is just so damn resilient and has the perfect style for Pac's aggresion. If it came down to it, he can also box on the backfoot and look to survive if he finds that Pac hits a lot harder than before and his chin doesn't carry with the weight.

Reason I'm predicting a KO though is because of how Katsidis KD JMM and had hard trouble keeping him off him. Not sure how JMM's weight training will help him this saturday.