Pac-JMM vs JMM-PBF Analysis & Prediction

Diggersan · Nov 10, 2011

marquez wins one maybe 2 rounds, he can't take a punch, hell he was dropped against katsidis, pacs more stronger at welter. mid round ko stoppage by pac.

Whipdatass · Nov 10, 2011

Marquez is going to knock Pacquiao out!

PH|LLA · Nov 10, 2011

Leon said: ↑

and if he doesn't?
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he will :smoke

and anyways it's just money brah

Bogotazo · Nov 10, 2011

If you recall, JMM didn't struggle with Casamayor; Nacho instructed him in the corner to give him the early rounds...but otherwise fair analysis. There are a few unknowns about how well the two will match up at the weight physiologically.

Hopefully, for me, this is the condition Marquez comes in:

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beOm5q8sqCE[/ame]

Phat_Ass_Dude · Nov 10, 2011

PH|LLA said: ↑

I've got a shitload of moolah on Pac getting a KO. He hasn't had a KO in a while but he's been fighting guys who all have a huge size advantage. JMM is a better fighter than those guys but Pac almost knocked him out in the 1st fight and also came close in the 2nd. Now he is bigger and stronger than JMM and more accustomed to the weight.
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First honest, truthful and intelligent thing you said in 3 years!

shinkijin · Nov 11, 2011

Vegas odssmaking aside, I'd still put PBF ahead at 60-40 against Pac. PBF definitely has a more than decent physical and stylistic advantage.

Strength and speed might be Pac's advantages against Marquez, but like PBF (tho in a diffrent way), I believe Marquez still has the edge in technique.

If Pac can't KO Marquez in the mid to early rounds, I'll probably go for decent decision win in Pac's favor.

rocky538 · Nov 11, 2011

That was the first time in JMM's career where he was totally outclassed and embarrassed.

Pacquiao can't box with JMM, the only way he knows how to win is by brute force, he ducked JMM for three years waiting for him to slow down. Pacquiao lost both fights.

dangerousity · Nov 11, 2011

sunnn said: ↑

IMO JMM is stylistically the worst matchup for Pac. Someone who can counterpunch and isn't afraid to take some in order to counter, JMM DARES to interrupt Pac mid combination to land his own, that is the difference between him and recent Pac opponents.

pretty good analysis overall, imo.

id would just lke to point out, jmm was a stylistically worst matchup for pac AT THE TIME when pac's offense was very predictable. jmm's chin is solid, thats given, that's why he dares do what he did.

but what i admire about jmm/nacho really is that they were to adjust to pac's offense. pac, when he wants to land his left (which is what he usually does then anyway), he comes in, stops or does a weird feint, extends his right, to be followed by a very quick, hard straight left. pac does this almost by instict and very quick. on exchanges pac favors his left by a lot, extending his right just enought to gain leverage on his next left punch.

as soon as jmm sees the right, he just steps back and shoots his own right to counter. pac ends up lunging as jmm steps back, and receives right counters in awkward position. jmm then launches into combos bec he knows pac isnt in the position to hurt him with his left. even continue to stalk pac, when pac disengages.

its not that jmm is stylistically wrong matchup for pac. its jmm/nachos strategy to evade that left, gearing their whole defense and offense with pac's left. of course his solid chin compensate for few mistakes he makes.

in the third fight, his chin will be put to real test because there is hardly " a punch to step back off to". when it does, its prolly when he is not in a position to dodge it or he is in a diminish capacity to evade.

again, id put it this way, once pac has shown he can hurt jmm with his right, the fight is basically over. jmm wont know which punch to defend off. how the fight would end is up to jmm. he can run or shell up or go down with guns blazing, all up to him.

re floyd-jmm, the fight was decided right thereon there on the scales.

when floyd cheated jmm off weight, the fight was basically over given their boxing attributes. jmm's only chance then was to hurt floyd on few occassions he can get to floyd. floyd ripped that chance away, without even fighting jmm.

just imagine they announce the fight at say 146-147. it would be viewed as a total farce and definitely would bomb.

floyd cheated jmm and the fans.

my 2 cents.
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I thought the same too after the 1st JMM fight, however in the 2nd fight JMM still controlled Pac and I believe Pac was a lot more developed then, he had a right hook. Granted Pac was not as polished in the 2nd fight as he is now, IMO his footwork now, lateral movement and punch variety is a lot better than the 2nd fight.

I'm not sure how effective Pac's right hook will be in this fight. If you watch all the fights its been effective in, Hatton, Cotto, Margo, you can see that all these guys walk into the punch. Even when Pac practices this punch on the mitts with Roach, its Roach walking into it. Watching Pac-JMM, JMM always stays out of range, Pac is forced to jab with JMM and out of frustration of not being able to reach him, he launches in with that left, and gets countered although often it lands too.

Pac's lateral movement is also effective when the opponent is coming to him, he can twist and turn and misdirect them, if their going back you'll find he goes in straight lines unless he's shot a punch already and then he can turn off that.

If JMM cant hurt Pac as well as he did in the previous fights, its game over. If JMM cant take the punches as well, game over. If JMM carries both his chin and power, I still think Pac decisions him. The 2nd fight was close enough, however Pac's head movement which I think is much better and his counter off it, also his much shorter punches, and punch variety will give JMM a lot more trouble.

horst · Nov 11, 2011

dangerousity said: ↑

Just my opinion guys, I'm usually quite accurate with Pac fights but IMO this is one of the harder fights to predict despite their history and the odds.

JMM-Mayweather:

A lot of people thinks Pac blows JMM out because of JMM's performance against Mayweather. I dont think that is necessarily the case, consider the following factors:

1) Styles makes fights. As much as people would like to blame it on the weight, this is the biggest factor in JMM looking poor against PBF. Recall how JMM struggled with an old Casamayor before the KO. JMM doesn't like counterpunchers, recall how he struggled against Chris John heck recall how he struggled against a past it MAB who counterpunched with him. JMM's style is such that he throws beautiful counter combinations, so when someone comes at him, its perfect as he can interrupt them and the opponent puts themselves in range for his combinations.

As a counterpuncher, the hardest thing to deal with is another counterpuncher who is taller, and faster. Not only is PBF taller and faster, he is also bigger, better reflexes, better defense, better footwork and better timing. At any weight, PBF will make JMM look foolish, perhaps the only difference is that JMM's strength and punching power would be more of an issue in the lower weights. The longer faster counterpuncher simply controls the range and punches when he likes, the shorter counterpuncher will have to make up that extra inch or two in length everytime he attempts to counterpunch, that was JMM's problem, he couldn't as PBF controlled that range very well.

2) Weight. Following from the above, there were many times when PBF was within range of JMM and JMM's punches just bounced off Floyd. JMM did look slower but to be honest, not that much slower than usual, he just didn't carry the power. Look at the difference in facial expression when PBF was getting muscled by Ortiz inside vs JMM trying to do the same. PBF knows he was in there with a bloated LW.

This may still be the case for Pac-JMM 3, but a lot of people scream out PED's for Pac destroying these bigger guys. I think its more to do with proper strength and conditioning and supplements, sports science allows us to get bigger and stronger faster. JMM has hired a very knowlegeable guy in trying to go up in weight, he looks strong at this weight and Heredia is no idiot. He hasn't had JMM throwing rocks about, using methods from 1920's, he's used science to bulk JMM up and I wouldn't be surprised if JMM has climbed and carried the weight as well as Pac has. Both men will be around the same size fight night. Also bare in mind this is JMM's 3rd fight above LW.

Now analysing Pac-JMM there really isn't much to say, the first 2 fights are there. IMO JMM is stylistically the worst matchup for Pac. Someone who can counterpunch and isn't afraid to take some in order to counter, JMM DARES to interrupt Pac mid combination to land his own, that is the difference between him and recent Pac opponents. Recent Pac opponents would cover up or run and wait for Pac's hailstorm to finish before countering, JMM will interrupt that and break Pac's rhythm. As Pac launches himself into JMM to land his combination, when JMM interrupts him, Pac's head and body has been placed in perfect range for JMM to land those counterpunch combinations. That is why JMM has a lot more success with guys who come to him vs guys who will land 1 punch and get out.

Pac has added new tricks to his game, a much better fighter but it still doesn't change the styles matchup. Pac's power p4p may remain the same also, IMO its hard to gauge Pac's power, Diaz and ODLH says he doesnt hit hard, Mosley and Hatton would say the opposite. Either way I think it will come down more to IF JMM carried his chin or not, cause Pac carried his power. If JMM carried his chin, this will be a repeat of the first 2 fights, but will probably swing in Pac's way via UD.

There are so many unknown factors going into this fight, its really had to predict. I think Pac will go in there thinking he's the bigger stronger man, and he may be. He will KD JMM like in the previous fights early, except this time I think JMM will feel the impact more and Pac finishes him within the next couple of rounds. JMM will probably carry his power, his speed and strength, however his chin isn't used to getting hit by a puncher at WW and that will be the difference.

Pac KO 6.

If Pac doesn't KO him early and JMM survives, I'm pretty sure JMM will opt to box him more carefully(after tasting the power) and lose a 12 round UD, probably somewhere around 7-5.

Odds on JMM is 21/1 by decision at betfair, despite my prediction for this fight, those odds are too good to ignore
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Nah. Even if it goes to a decision, no way is JMM winning enough rounds to make it as close as 7-5. It'd be 10-2 at most. But I expect Pac to get the TKO by the 8th anyway. He has improved, Marquez hasn't, plus Pac has the physical edge. Not a particularly close fight this one, just another Pacquiao masterclass.

dangerousity · Nov 11, 2011

Bogotazo said: ↑

If you recall, JMM didn't struggle with Casamayor; Nacho instructed him in the corner to give him the early rounds...but otherwise fair analysis. There are a few unknowns about how well the two will match up at the weight physiologically.

Hopefully, for me, this is the condition Marquez comes in:

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beOm5q8sqCE[/url]
Click to expand...

I dont think you "purposely" give the opponent the early rounds. Nacho wanted JMM to figure him out but in doing so he was losing the rounds until he made adjustments based on what he saw. I thought it was pretty close, the scorecards would say the same too. JMM was always gonna beat him, either by points or KO. However if a shot Casa could do that to him, just think what PBF could do...well.

dangerousity · Nov 11, 2011

Popkins said: ↑

Nah. Even if it goes to a decision, no way is JMM winning enough rounds to make it as close as 7-5. It'd be 10-2 at most. But I expect Pac to get the TKO by the 8th anyway. He has improved, Marquez hasn't, plus Pac has the physical edge. Not a particularly close fight this one, just another Pacquiao masterclass.
Click to expand...

I'm back and forth on how close this fight would be. I re-watched JMM-Katsidis and I'm convinced JMM gets KO'd again... Then again JMM hasn't always been the most consistent, guy tends to fight to his opponents level. I think JMM wins 3-4 rounds.

dangerousity · Nov 11, 2011

Diggersan said: ↑

marquez wins one maybe 2 rounds, he can't take a punch, hell he was dropped against katsidis, pacs more stronger at welter. mid round ko stoppage by pac.
Click to expand...

If JMM only wins 1-2 rounds, he's probably getting beat so bad he's gonna get KO. If this goes to a decision, I think he takes 3-4 rounds at least.

Box Box Box · Nov 11, 2011

these 2 fought at jmm's best weight, and pac managed to beat him via razor thin split decision.

140 to 147 is another story.

horst · Nov 11, 2011

dangerousity said: ↑

I'm back and forth on how close this fight would be. I re-watched JMM-Katsidis and I'm convinced JMM gets KO'd again... Then again JMM hasn't always been the most consistent, guy tends to fight to his opponents level.
This content is protected

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He won't.

Uncle Rico · Nov 11, 2011

dangerousity said: ↑

Just my opinion guys, I'm usually quite accurate with Pac fights but IMO this is one of the harder fights to predict despite their history and the odds.

JMM-Mayweather:

A lot of people thinks Pac blows JMM out because of JMM's performance against Mayweather. I dont think that is necessarily the case, consider the following factors:

1) Styles makes fights. As much as people would like to blame it on the weight, this is the biggest factor in JMM looking poor against PBF. Recall how JMM struggled with an old Casamayor before the KO. JMM doesn't like counterpunchers, recall how he struggled against Chris John heck recall how he struggled against a past it MAB who counterpunched with him. JMM's style is such that he throws beautiful counter combinations, so when someone comes at him, its perfect as he can interrupt them and the opponent puts themselves in range for his combinations.

As a counterpuncher, the hardest thing to deal with is another counterpuncher who is taller, and faster. Not only is PBF taller and faster, he is also bigger, better reflexes, better defense, better footwork and better timing. At any weight, PBF will make JMM look foolish, perhaps the only difference is that JMM's strength and punching power would be more of an issue in the lower weights. The longer faster counterpuncher simply controls the range and punches when he likes, the shorter counterpuncher will have to make up that extra inch or two in length everytime he attempts to counterpunch, that was JMM's problem, he couldn't as PBF controlled that range very well.

2) Weight. Following from the above, there were many times when PBF was within range of JMM and JMM's punches just bounced off Floyd. JMM did look slower but to be honest, not that much slower than usual, he just didn't carry the power. Look at the difference in facial expression when PBF was getting muscled by Ortiz inside vs JMM trying to do the same. PBF knows he was in there with a bloated LW.

This may still be the case for Pac-JMM 3, but a lot of people scream out PED's for Pac destroying these bigger guys. I think its more to do with proper strength and conditioning and supplements, sports science allows us to get bigger and stronger faster. JMM has hired a very knowlegeable guy in trying to go up in weight, he looks strong at this weight and Heredia is no idiot. He hasn't had JMM throwing rocks about, using methods from 1920's, he's used science to bulk JMM up and I wouldn't be surprised if JMM has climbed and carried the weight as well as Pac has. Both men will be around the same size fight night. Also bare in mind this is JMM's 3rd fight above LW.

Now analysing Pac-JMM there really isn't much to say, the first 2 fights are there. IMO JMM is stylistically the worst matchup for Pac. Someone who can counterpunch and isn't afraid to take some in order to counter, JMM DARES to interrupt Pac mid combination to land his own, that is the difference between him and recent Pac opponents. Recent Pac opponents would cover up or run and wait for Pac's hailstorm to finish before countering, JMM will interrupt that and break Pac's rhythm. As Pac launches himself into JMM to land his combination, when JMM interrupts him, Pac's head and body has been placed in perfect range for JMM to land those counterpunch combinations. That is why JMM has a lot more success with guys who come to him vs guys who will land 1 punch and get out.

Pac has added new tricks to his game, a much better fighter but it still doesn't change the styles matchup. Pac's power p4p may remain the same also, IMO its hard to gauge Pac's power, Diaz and ODLH says he doesnt hit hard, Mosley and Hatton would say the opposite. Either way I think it will come down more to IF JMM carried his chin or not, cause Pac carried his power. If JMM carried his chin, this will be a repeat of the first 2 fights, but will probably swing in Pac's way via UD.

There are so many unknown factors going into this fight, its really had to predict. I think Pac will go in there thinking he's the bigger stronger man, and he may be. He will KD JMM like in the previous fights early, except this time I think JMM will feel the impact more and Pac finishes him within the next couple of rounds. JMM will probably carry his power, his speed and strength, however his chin isn't used to getting hit by a puncher at WW and that will be the difference.

Pac KO 6.

If Pac doesn't KO him early and JMM survives, I'm pretty sure JMM will opt to box him more carefully(after tasting the power) and lose a 12 round UD, probably somewhere around 7-5.

Odds on JMM is 21/1 by decision at betfair, despite my prediction for this fight, those odds are too good to ignore
Click to expand...

Great post. It echoes a lot of what I've been saying in the build-up. Styles make fights, and there's no way JMM gets blown away like most are predicting. Which is the only thing I disagree with in your post. The result. Pac wins by UD (8-4), I think.

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