Marquez Defeating Pacquiao DOES NOT Indicate Pac Loses to Floyd- A Technical Summary

Hey Bogo,

Firstly, brilliant well thought out post. I'm curious, have you boxed or trained Boxers or anything along those lines? Your technical knowlege is great.

I agree with the core point, that Marquez's performance against Pacquaio (I think he won too) does not prove beyond doubt, that Mayweather can't fail to defeat Manny. Again you're correct when you say that Mayweather and Marquez go about both their offence and defence completely different from each other. As far as counter punchers go, they are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

There are certain aspects of that Pacquaio - Marquez 3 fight that we can look at, and see happening in a matchup with Mayweather.

1. Pacquaio is suceptible to the body. I don't buy that it was leg cramps frankly. If you watch Marquez 1 - 3 and even the first Morales fight, Manny seems much more tamed once he has taken blows to his body. Now people will mention Cotto, Clottey, and Margarito and ask that if Marquez and Morales can hurt Pacquaio, surely these bigger guys should of knocked him out? The difference is that the three Welterweights (Or Junior Middle weights) I mentioned were at the point in their fights where they were just focusing on landing, not where they were landing. Marquez places his left hand to Pacquaio's liver time and time again, the same spot, and is calm enough to ensure he has pin point accuracy. Morales landed his straight right into Pacquaio's stomach, time and time again; an under-rated part of Morales' game was that he could fight with brilliant punching precision.
It wasn't leg cramps, it was Marquez taking away Pacquaio's legs, in order to turn the fight into a battle of skill, rather than athletic talent IMO.

2. Pacquaio can be discouraged when not dominating. It shows in his body langauge, and it shows when he goes back to his corner, if you're discouraged then you generally allow thoughts to enter your head, which for a fighter like Pacquaio is trouble. Fighting instinct and not Boxing IQ is his strength with guys like Marquez and Mayweather.

Next, you make a very good point about Marquez and his lateral motion, he really is a privallige to watch from a purists stand point. Marquez's major strengths are his IQ, his punching fluidity, his timing, his ability to re-couperate, his efficient footwork and his knowlege of Boxing tricks (Stepping on Pacquaio's foot) I agree that Floyd doesn't move laterally as Marquez does, prefering to keep his sholder guard as an insurance policy and simply move backwards, but I'd argue that Floyd does posses several of Marquez's core strengths, such as IQ, timing, efficient footwork, and perfection when it comes to dictating the distance.

Marquez as you mention, has great success getting inside of Pacquaio, and Mayweather may not be able to match that. In all honesty I don't think he'll try. I think he'll jab and pivot to his right in order to accomodate Pac's side to side motion, Mayweather has lost his ability to spring in with a lead hook so he's much more right hand relient, as a result I think we'll see him jab much more from a high guard while manouvering Manny into a straight right hand, as I mentioned Pacquaio is vulnerable to the body, so Mayweather will imply his jab to the stomach, which I call the gas guzzler.

You mention that you don't see Mayweather being able to control Pacquaio, I think you may be under-estimating Mayweather's foot placement here, efficient is the correct word (One I used to describe Andre Ward's foot movement the other day) he doesn't waste steps, he simply moves into position and strikes. Pacquaio is a more skilled fighter now than in his early days, this means he has developed habbits, and rythms; I can't think of a better fighter than Mayweather to figure out a fighters rythm and adjust to it. Add to that body shots taking away Pacquaio's legs, meaning he loses the ability to create unorthodox angles and I think we have a one sided fight.

Again you're correct, Marquez has a far better ability to compete in exchanges than Mayweather does, I agree. I'd argue that Mayweather has a discipline that Marquez does not, where if he does get hit clean he returns to defensive posture and waits for his oppertunity, which against Pacquaio would be wise.

Anything I haven't covered, let me know buddy.

 

When did Marquez beat Pacquiao?

 

bodyshot w/o lead foot positioning

Mayweather doesn't casually throw a left hook to the body the way Marquez does.

 

Pacquaio will need to sell out to get to Floyd IMO, if he trys to think his way in then he gets caught and countered all night. He has to be unpredictable, wild but in a calculated way if that makes sense. He has to move inside as quick as he can, but dip, move his head and be punching.

Yes I think Mayweather can concede position of the lead foot, and still land to Pac's body because he's not trying to throw hooks, he's only going to jab or shoot a rare right hand downstairs. His reach advantage, coupled with timing and knowlege of distance means that he won't be relient on establishing his lead foot. Marquez who was smaller, slower and throwing with much more effort was dependant on his foot placement.

Mayweather walking Pacquaio down would be either plan B, or something to do later in the fight IMO. If I was him I'd work from range first, land my shots to the body and slow Pacquaio's feet down, from there you can start to take his confidence away by making him realise you are the superior fighter, then once you've done your damage downstairs, put up a high guard, walk forward and establish yourself as the bigger man.

One point I will make; in Floyd's biggest fights, Corrales, Gatti, Oscar, Hatton, and Mosley, Floyd has made an effort in all of these to knock his man out. Oscar has an ATG chin and size advantage so it didn't happen there, and Mosley was not too far from being stopped IMO. I think if this fight comes off, Floyd knows that a knockout will propell him up almost everyones ATG list, slightly more than a UD win would, I expect him to finish the fight as the aggressor.

Judah is an enigma, that night for 4 rounds he was brilliant, and I'd be hesitant to say Pacquaio could do any better. I think he could win maybe two of the first four, and then a comparison round later in the fight, the fact that he fights more refined these days means he's actually an easier fight for Mayweather than if they'd met at 130. Zab showed how great he could of been that night, albeit briefly.

I see it ending in a UD for Mayweather, 9 -3 but I honestly wouldn't be shocked at a corner stoppage, if Floyd takes Pac's legs and confidence away from him, puts his guard up and walks forward.

 

I agree again, footwork is key for Pacquaio, but he has to change it up; the same foot movements will simply see Floyd adjust, take a step in the required direction and walk Manny into a lead shot.

I'd focus on improving his head movement, that's vital he must get to Mayweather with all his senses in tact, change levels too, dip, bend at the waist don't set yourself because you can't afford to be still. Floyd has shown that he has trouble early with straight lefts, so early on throw it like it's going out of fashion but pivot to your right once you've thrown it, away from a counter right, bring your right hand up and dip in order to avoid a left hook.

I don't see Pacquaio having the ring generalship to win the fight to be honest, if Mayweather wants the fight in the middle of the ring, that's where it'll be, if he wants Pac against the ropes, then that's where he'll be. Pacquaio can't get too caught up in what Floyd's doing, he has to be that sensation that everyone was raving about years ago, fearless, he can't win the Boxing match, he has to fight.

I can't see the right hook landing, Ortiz has a better one IMO and that was taken out of the equation by Floyd, but it doesn't mean Pacquaio shouldn't throw it, variety is key along with solid head movement and ferocity.

All that being said, Mayweather is a nightmare to come up with a game plan for, and it's not a job I'd even apply for

 

SJS and Bogotazo > the general forum.

 

I'm proud to say sjs is from essex

 

why you embarrassed bro?

 

Praise Haa

I'm used to Gander Tasco and Lance Uppercut, so this makes a nice change :smoke

 

Undeniable.

 

I can't believe I missed the start of such a fantastic thread.. :fire