Mayweather v Cotto: Prediction

On May 5th, this Saturday night, fight fans will get to see two of boxing's most celebrated stars go head-to-head in a battle long over due. In one corner is the bad boy, defensive wizard, offensive surgeon and all round great Floyd "Money" Mayweather. In the other is Puerto Rico's Miguel Cotto, a 3 weight world champion who has shown time and time again his own greatness. Being a fan of both fighters it was hard writing this, but below I have tried to summarise the key factors at play in this fight and finally a prediction.

Speed and Quickness

Miguel Cotto has faced world class speedsters like Zab Judah, Manny Pacqiuao and Shane Mosely in his long career and has generally had differing success. Against Mosely and Judah his timing neutralised the speed whereas against Pacquiao the speed combined with the angles Pacquiao was giving destroyed Cotto.

Floyd Mayweather is extremely fast and quick thinking. This combination of physical speed and mental quickness is the perfect combination against Cotto. Physical speed has always troubled Cotto but he has been able to overcome that with timing. However in Mayweather he is facing a counter-puncher who will be relying on Cotto to take the lead. Therefore Cotto won't have the openings, as a result Cotto won't be able to time Mayweather, in reality it will be the other way around.

Recent Form and Oppoisition

Cotto in recent times has faced the likes of Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito. These fighters are all second/third tier fighters chosen for thier respective potential to bring in money and none of them possesed well rounded attributes. None of these fighters were fast, or great defensively and they were tailor made for Cotto at this stage of his career. I would submit therefore that his recent sucess is simply "hype" and a product of great marketing and management.

As a result when Cotto steps in against Mayweather on that night it will have been a long time since he stepped in with a bona fida world class fighter.

Stamina

Mayweather rarely, if ever has shown any type of fatigue in boxing matches. On the other hand Cotto has looked fatigued in the Mayorga, Pacquiao, Margarito I & II fight as well as many others. This will present a major problem in this fight. If Mayweather lets Cotto take the lead Cotto will be chasing around an opponent he cannot hit and this will be a drain on Cotto's resources like never before. If Mayweather takes the front foot Cotto will be forced to dance, move and fight on the back foot something which he seems uncomfortable doing, which will ultimately tire him quicker. Regardless either way I see Cotto getting extremely tired in this fight which will be his downfall.

Power, Chin & Durability

It is a myth when people suggest that Mayweather does not have power. The reason his KO % is not higher is because of the high calibre names he's faced who have never really been kayoed: Marquez, Mosely, Oscar (when prime chin of granite), Baldomir (chin of granite in prime) etc. In recent times when he's faced fighters who havent got a great chin, he's either knocked them out - Hatton & Ortiz or put them in full survival mode - Mosely, Marquez, Judah.

Cotto does not have a granite chin, plus his face is susceptible to cutting and swelling. Therefore Cotto is not as durable as some others that have lasted the distance with Floyd and neither has he got the boxing IQ or the chin to be able to take sustained accurate punches from Floyd.

Prediction

Miguel Cotto after a couple of rounds, will begin to miss with punches and get hit by hard counters. I see Floyd boxing on the back foot, for the first 4-6 rounds and slowly sapping the energy from Miguel Cotto. After 6 or so rounds (or whenever Mayweather senses Cotto tiring) Mayweather will begin marching forward and pressing the attack. Cotto will be wobbled and possibly dropped.

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