My analysis of PBF-Cotto

First off I’d like to give props to these fighters for signing the fight and getting it done.

I see this fight as a one sided beating and let me tell you why. Cotto IMO is facing a guy who holds and extreme stylistic advantage over him and has him beat in pretty much every department as well. Cotto is mostly a boxer puncher and he wins by outboxing people which against PBF that’s the worst thing you can do. I think Cotto’s plan in this fight as crazy as it sounds will be to try and outbox PBF. I really think his corner thinks he can actually pull this off and they really overrated his boxing ability especially against a master like PBF. In theory it sounds okay because Cotto has a nice jab with good pop on it throws nice combos and decent footwork but in the ring it will be proven wrong. For one despite having a good jab Cotto has short arms. I don’t really think he can be effective with his jab against PBF not only that he has average handspeed. I see PBF countering over the top of his jab all night long. Cotto IMO doesn't have the ring IQ to bother PBF he won't use feints he's not a master of distance and he doesn't throw the overhand right which is a punch really that bothers PBF. His straight left isn't fast or deadly. He also often abandons's his game plan very early on in his fights see the Pac fight for reference. Another problem for Cotto is that he’s a one handed fighter and no one handed fighter with average hand speed and short arms will outbox PBF. People overlook the reach advantage PBF has here it will be a huge factor in this fight. PBF will take his left hand away and have his way with him. Lastly Cotto isn’t a devastating puncher he has power but IMO it won’t be something PBF hasn’t dealt with before. He will be fine.

So as you can see outbxoing PBF is pretty much out of the question. Some might say you’re crazy Cotto isn’t going to try to outbox PBF, that’s suicide, he’s going to put educated pressure on him and outwork him and go to the body like JLC did. That’s fine but here’s the problem with that, Cotto doesn’t have the will nor the durability of a prime JLC. Cotto has an average chin at best and won’t be willing to pay the cost to fight that type of war. In addition he busts up too easily and has suspect stamina and defense he’s a sucker for the right hand and uppercut. I know a lot won’t agree but IMO he’s a bit of a front runner bully style fighter and what I mean by that is that if it’s going good for him and he’s hurting you he looks great but if you can answer back and stand up to him he does two things. One he fouls he’s done that against Judah, Clottey and Urkal when he was either hurt or frustrated. Two he retreats and buys time not looking to really engage only to survive. Like he did against Pac Margo 1 and the late rounds against Mosley.

If Cotto fights this type of pressure style against PBF I see him getting countered to death beat up on the inside and getting stopped. If he tries to box with PBF I see him getting beat to the punch pretty much outclassed but making it to the final bell. The choice is his but either way he’s getting beat on Cinco De Mayweather. Like said earlier I think Cotto is a front-runner so PBF will show respect early on I’m not looking for him to jump on Cotto early like he did against young Ortiz he will feel him out and work on neutralizing his jab and then take him apart. By the mid rounds Cotto will start to bust up tire and PBF will take over. PBF by wide UD if Cotto comes to box and PBF by TKO if Cotto comes to pressure.:deal The only chance Cotto has IMO is if PBF gets old overnight or that the move up in weight really effects him if any previous version of PBF shows up on fight night he's ****ed.

 

I gave a detailed analysis here. Nothing wrong with that. This is a boxing site right?