FINAL and OFFICIAL - Lucian BUTE vs. Carl FROCH - who wins and why?

Should not be close.

Ward showed that Froch cannot really "box".

Bute would be silly to get into a brawl, although I hope he does.

 

If I look at the polls, and the vbookie bets the odds on this bout should be a lot wider as they are right now.

 

Same here, yesterday there was like 5X more money on a Bute win, than Froch.

 

Poll shows 75% of us are smart.Only 25% "believe" that Froch can pull it off.
This may be the only time in history that the majority of ESB members have shown actual intelligence.

 

Here's how I would play it:-

If I were Froch:

I'd bum-rush Bute and go full-out, looking for the T/KO from the first bell, banking on the fact that Bute's a slow starter and takes a while to find his feet and get comfortable in the fight. The crowd would get fully behind Froch and the momentum could prove decisive, especially if it's a close fight. Bute may not settle fast enough, intimidated by Froch's determined, ruthless approach and by the crowd/ atmosphere.

Then, once Bute finds his feet in the fight and starts to take over, Froch should start counter-punching Bute behind a long jab, and bum-rush Bute whenever possible, following the haymakers and wide crosses with sharp, fast body-shots, followed by the uppercut.

Keep on doing that if the fight is close or if Bute is becoming too dangerous. If Bute is ahead by a lot, go for broke in the last 2 rounds.

If I were Bute:

Make as active a start as possible, to show confidence and silence the crowd, moving a lot, employing head-movement and getting the jab working. Try to make Froch miss as much as possible in the first few rounds by using footwork and head-movement, rather than by blocking shots and by jumping backwards in a straight line. Try to stay off the ropes, keeping the fight in the centre of the ring, dancing around Froch, making Froch come forward. Do the usual Bute stuff if all goes well. If it doesn't, and Froch finds success rushing Bute with power-punches, try to clinch, rinse and repeat.

How I think it will go

Froch will win most of the first 5 rounds, and he might make it rough for Bute too. Then, once Bute composes himself, finds his rhythm, distance and angles, Bute will start to take over. Froch will counter-act by turning counter-puncher. Bute will force the fight in rounds 8-10, making Froch feel he needs a strong finish to stay in the fight. As a result of Froch going for broke in the last rounds, I can see a stoppage, most likely by Bute off a hook to the head or an uppercut, whilst Froch wades in and misses.

Odds:

Bute wide UD - 30%
Bute close UD - 15%
Bute T/KO - 25%
Froch T/KO - 15%
Froch close UD - 15%

:good

 

I think Bute can stop him, not gonna try and predict it since Froch is tough

I just think Bute's hands and feet are so much faster and will provide openings and leave Froch out of position

I think Bute will definitley drop him to the body and this will provide some real chances to do damage

 

I see Froch getting Bute schooled.

Bute is hyped, actually - even more than Froch.

 

Lotsa votes for Bute.

Thought he was overrated?

 

Excellent preview on this one Dece Bal; i just think that Froch is going to get caught early like Andrade in the rematch and Miranda and Froch will start buckling his legs b4 round 8. Possibly by midstage the fight is over and so will Froch's hype, pardon me all Froch's supporters. This is not a balanced fight at all style-wise... Froch going against the wall in this one fo'sure unless he shows some respect and makes it a Super-Six final kinda fight which I don't believe is his plan at all.

 

Gonna go with my heart and say Froch with a close home decision, not that i'd put money on it. I believe he learnt a lot against Ward and won't waste anywhere near as much on telegraphed power punches. He'll fire off combinations and take his chances, i think they'll come. Wouldn't put any money on it though! Froch does step up at home, he can do it again.

 

I think Froch will last more than both Andrade and Miranda, not because he's tougher than Andrade or because he has a better chin, but because once he realises Bute is starting to score good shots, he will use his long jab more effectively and box a lot more cleverly. He is not fast, but he is faster and can be more active than Andrade II, and he can be more effective off the long jab with the hayemaker and hooks. Bute won't find it as easy to get to Froch's body, not by a long way. First of all, he'll have to win the battle of the jabs - Andrade had no jab worth talking about... and neither did Miranda, really.

I would look for a comparison for Froch more towards Bika than Andrade/Miranda.

You're right, I think, Froch cannot afford to lose badly in this one... will that not make him look towards the Taylor fight for inspiration if he's up against it? What I'm saying is that he might decide to box clever and use rush-tactics sparringly, only at the right time, waiting for the last few rounds to go for broke, if necessary.

What do you think, Dorfmeister?

 

Bute will win the fight but Froch will get the win because of how corrupt Nottingham has proved to be!

 

I doubt that. If it's close, the fighter who deserves it will most likely win.

The IBF have no interest at all in having Bute robbed. He's one of their big stars. Bute's future looks brighter than Froch's anyway. I think they will insist on fair refereeing and scoring, particularly since Bute's decided to travel for this one.

 

Bute gets Froch out of there before the final bell. It's going to be a dominating performance.