Andre WARD vs. Chad DAWSON - Analysis and Prediction Thread

It's actually quite hard to breakdown this fight, I haven't yet, but I will soon.

Right now I'm favouring Ward.

 

Ward. More mentally tough and really can fight inside. Will be a ugly fight but when Dawson breaks mentally Ward will take over in the second half, mabye earlier.

 

This fight is at SMW?

Why didn't Ward fight Chad Dawson at LH?
Not only would it be for a title but we know Dawson is "healthy" at that weight. At SMW, we don't know how Chad will be. I don't get why Dawson would agree to fight at SMW even if Ward is a big name within the sport.

 

Would have a much easier time breaking this fight down if I knew how drained Dawson would be at 168. IMO he's making a mistake by fighting Ward there.

 

this fight's at 168? if it is, then I'd favor Ward, Dawson hasn't been in a fight at 168 since 2006

I know Dawson has an uncomfortable style, he knows how to box,but after he lost to Pascal, I started to wonder whether he's all that wonderful, especially since he was trailing on all the judge's cards

Ward's been in with all the top guns at SMW, Dawson's beaten Johnson (twice) Tarver (twice) and Adamek, all at LHW

right now, it's difficult to see who's favorite, I'd slightly pick Ward, plainly because the fight will be at a weight at which Dawson hasn't fought for years

 

Nope, sorry didn't see this or wouldn't of made mine!

 

You're Chad Dawson, how would you fight Andre Ward?


Here is my own plan.

Sit him down before signing for the fight and tell him if he really wants to win he can, but he must have the dedication and the fire to go out there and tell everyone he's one of the best fighters in Boxing. Be straight, if he's going to be half arsed and not go for it then he may as well fu*! off now and become an ESPN fighter. Assuming he gets the message then we're good to go.

Press Conference(s) : Against Abraham Ward was sick of being told he had no power etc, he came out aggressive and got caught flush a fair few times coming forward. I'd be up on the podium, telling the word that Andre Ward can't punch, can't break an egg and if he didn't have such a big noggin then he'd of lost multiple times. Rile him up, make him want to prove a point. He's a calculating fighter, emotion can over come thought and that's Dawsons first potential advantage. (Also, I'd make a point of dismissing Virgil Hunter, he likes to talk to Ward's opponents, not this time.)

CAMP : Dawson would hate me. Runs with Combat boots, high altitude up mountains etc. He needs a solid stamina base here. We won't be fighting at a snails pace. All sorts of excercises though none that leave him too heavily muscled up top, I want his arms free and fluid, able to string together 4-5 punches quickly, and to allow lateral movement. (Anyone who thought Lacey would beat Calzaghe is a muppet, that much muscle restricts movement.)

The Jab : Key to everything here. Andre Ward dictates the rythm of his fights, same as Hopkins and same as Mayweather. Dawsons first oppertunity to stamp his authority on the fight is to jab. Not once either, that's not a problem for a defensively sound thinking fighter. Double it and tripple it, stepping to his right as he does so. Ward will get low and attempt to move closer. Low with a high guard. Crack a hard right hook to the body and take three quick steps in a circling motion, left hand high and ready to cross over to deflect a lead left hook from Ward. If Dawson is forced to block a lead left hook then abandon the step plan for that moment and pivot to the right on his back foot to avoid any follow up right hand coming his way, this manouver also opens up a straight left hand for Dawson to use.

I'd have him doing 4 minute rounds, circling and jabbing the bag. Every so often I'd want variation, hook off the jab. 1 jab 2 jab uppercut, etc. You can't do one thing over and over with a fighter who adapts, you'll end up missing and getting beaten up.

Very Rarely, I'd want Dawson to throw a straight left, just to mix it up. Ward would block that with a high guard, so Dawson should step to his LEFT (Opposite to what's conventional for the southpaw) dip and throw a right hook to the body, when done, push Ward away, restore distance. Referee may warn for this, so rarely.

Ward had difficulty with Froch when Carl through two to three straight punches upstairs and then changed rythm and threw an uppercut. Same thing here. Dawson hands held high and elbows tucked in, throw a right, a left, double jab and then use that right hand to uppercut between the guard of Dawson.

Can't ignore body work, Ward can be slowed down and Froch did it with preassure. Carl also did it in straight lines and with his chin hanging out. We wouldn't be doing that. Jab to the body, keep range and everytime Ward does get close throw two body shots and push him off the sholder, ALWAYS punching right away to distract the referee from any potential point deductions etc. The previously mentioned uppercuts during a combination should sometimes be targeted at Wards chest. (People neglect chest punching, but it hurts, and stops you drawing breath.)

Andre Ward likes to dictate, you have to break that dominance and that's where the fight starts. If he does settle into a rythm and shut Dawson out offensively, then I'd have no problem with Dawson landing a low blow. Breakhis domination, his focus and his belief he can dominate, then we'll see what he's got.

Of course Dawson would probably have a mental meltdown and forget all of that ^^^ at which point I'd crack him over the head with the stool

Again, the above is just my opinion, let me know if I missed anything.

 

I have a plan for Andre Ward too.

 

I'm concerned about the weight for Dawson. It's tough for me to predict anything because he hasn't fought there in so long. He did come in at 173 for Diaconu last year, so he's probably not boiling down, but still. ...

Even factoring out weight, Ward is a 65/35 favorite, imo. Here's how I see it going:

1) Dawson is the better outside boxer and will attempt to keep the action on the outside, just as he did against Hopkins. Bernard was good preparation for Ward for several reasons, actually.

Dawson has a 5 1/2-inch reach advantage (!!!), a major advantage for him in this bout and a reason why he must try to keep it on the outside. By contrast, his reach advantage over Hopkins was just 1.5. It was 4.5 against Pascal but didn't help him much, because Pascal stayed far out of range and lunged in with explosive power shots. Dawson/Pascal is not a good blueprint for how Dawson/Ward will play out.

2) Ward dominates every opponent who prefers to fight at mid-range. He burrows his way inside and negates offense. Guys like Froch and Kessler were totally stymied by him, and he can frustrate Dawson this way, too. Dawson isn't a terrible inside fighter but isn't on Ward's level, with Andre being very comfortable grinding out long fights. Clearly, Dawson will attempt to minimize the time spent here.

However, Dawson has some tools that Froch and Kessler lack. He has the footspeed to step back and punch — he did this successfully as the fight wore on in Hopkins II — and throws a genuinely powerful right uppercut and right hook on the inside. He also throws a nice right hook to the body. Can he hit Ward with these punches and get his respect when he does land? That's one of the fight's biggest puzzles.

3) Will Dawson become frustrated? Ward is the clearly more focused fighter, and Chad has alternately drifted or gotten upset in fights. If Ward lands a couple headbutts, what happens then? Chad mostly did okay against Hopkins, but he enjoyed such immense physical advantages that I can't read too much into that fight.

4) Even if Dawson wins a few rounds and Ward makes some adjustment, will Dawson be able to adjust back? Ward is arguably the most adaptive fighter in the sport, and Dawson notoriously is not. He did demonstrated some improvement here against Hopkins and I think finally has the right trainer for him, but it remains a valid question.

5) Will Dawson's power show up? This is another advantage for him, but Ward can't punch at all and it's never been a factor.

Mostly, for Dawson to win, I think he has to keep the fight outside at least 33% of the time, then win 40% of the action at close-range, whether that's actually in-fighting or stepping out and firing from a little space.

Ward guards against power shots on the inside brilliantly. Dawson will need to hit him with a variety of shots to open Ward up for something bigger like a right uppercut. Everyone wants to land it on Ward, but he's a defensive master. Will Dawson be any different?

I think Ward is too much at 168. At 175, I'd probably say 50/50. Even so, I think there will be real tension and Chad will have some moments. Dawson has seen something more equivalent to Ward than Ward has seen of Dawson.

I know it's not a casual fan's fight, but I'm amped!