People seem to forget that Martinez is also overrated. Chavez will obviously be the bigger fighter in this bout. Chavez will use this size advantage particularly in the later rounds of the fight which I believe it will end at. He is known for his decent chin and ability to go to the body early in fights. Chavez might struggle early but he will use his physical size advantage land his body shots and take away his stamina. I have never been a fan of Martinez and thought he looked like **** in his last two fights. And lets be honest you can tell from the weigh in that Chavez has gotten in Martinez' head.
Chavez Jr has to be fast enough and skilled enough to cut the ring off against Martinez, neither of which has he done skillfully in the past, he has simply waded into the fire of lesser opponents. He has to be able to take Martinez's punches because unless he's improved defensively a lot, he's gonna be easy to find for Martinez. He has to be able to put his punches together well when he corners Martinez or he'll get countered hard and Martinez will escape the corner. And he has to be able to do this all night to have a shot at winning. You might have thought Martinez looked less than stellar against Barker and Macklin, but keep in mind both of those fighters were way more skilled boxers than Chavez Jr and mostly fought a defensive fight behind a tight guard. They forced Martinez to lead then countered him with very sporadic bursts of punches, because they knew if Martinez ever got their timing down it would be all over. Jr doesn't have the skill on defense or offense to do that. And ultimately, it felt more to me like Martinez was on cruise control in both those fights, and once he upped his gear a little, he stopped both guys, who are both better fighters in my opinion than anyone Jr has fought.
You will lose your 100$ tomorrow when Junior is bleeding and kneeling down to his king tomorrow... You'll learn not to bet against "sexy"..
Compared to how he usually fights, he did. Macklin generally likes to come in, open up, and put heavy pressure on his opponent with activity a la the Sturm fight, where he averaged 92 punches per round. However, had he done that against Martinez, he would have left himself far too open and gotten stopped early, so instead he used the Barker strategy of a tight high guard and trying to force Martinez on the attack and counter him with short bursts of punches, except for he did a better job of letting his hands go than Barker. That said, his output was down to about 42 punches per round, which is well below his usual workrate, and his style was defensive in nature.