Studying Paris-Judah in relation to Garcia-Judah

I re-watched Paris-Judah to try and gauge Judah's chances against Garcia from a stylistic standpoint. Paris is similar to Garcia in that he throws quick single jabs, prefers to take small steps rather than use a lot of movement, and ducks low to look for counter and lead straight rights & left hooks. Garcia has better timing, a better selection of punches, more power, and is more seasoned in exchanges, but the stylistic similarities are still there. Judah’s never been a super mobile guy since he’s most comfortable counter-punching himself, but he does well stepping towards his lead/jab hand to get his lead foot on the outside and open up his punching angle while nullifying Paris’s. Given that I think his style has the ability to give Garcia trouble, here are my observations from the Paris fight, done round by round with the dynamics of the future Garcia bout in mind.

(Had to delete link)

In round 1, Judah outboxes Paris but turning him and landing a few 1-2’s . At 2:02, Paris catches Judah with a left counter over Judah’s double jab. Because of Judah’s philly shell stance and his defensive focus on leaning back, it smacks him on the topside of his head but doesn’t do much damage. That’s the kind of shot Garcia will be looking for, and Judah needs to avoid jumping in with his lead hand too predictably. 1:02 sees Judah get caught by another one, again without much damage but from the same over-commitment to the double jab. Judah lands a couple of straight lefts and immediately goes on the attack; that’s a good sign for those who worry about his age inhibiting his offensive capabilities. When Paris comes forward in straight lines, it allows Judah to walk him easily into a straight left. If Garcia forgets to feint and jab authoritatively, this could spell trouble for him.

Round 2 sees more of the same, with Judah’s stance and tucked chin making it hard for him to land, but Paris finds him with a harder counter-left. For the rest of the round, Judah seems to have more respect for it, and tries going to the body more. When Paris ducks, Judah spins him and throws short left hands at his head.

Round 3 has Zab more in a rhythm, mixing in lead lefts more often and bouncing in and out, giving Paris less to counter. Paris is forced to lead and the left hook is no longer landing. The only time Paris lands is usually in spots on the inside with mostly his right, where the exchanges are relatively even.

Round 4, Judah keeps turning him, landing 1’s and 2’s to the head and body. Paris gets some good shots off in this round when Judah stands and trades in the pocket with him, but he stays composed. Hurts him at the end of the round with a surprise lead left. The way he feints and tricks Paris shows he’s more and more in control of the fight.

Round 5, Judah’s more offensive but responsibly stays at range. Paris’s guard is poor, and Judah finds the holes pretty easily when he shells up. Judah strafes him pretty good with power-shots in the pocket, including two big right hooks and a right uppercut.

Round 6 is more of the same, with Judah nearly knocking Paris over with a combination before the bell.

Round 7 has Paris see his best round of the fight, scoring with a few left hook to the body + right hand up top combinations. Judah’s controlling the distance and pace, but his output has dropped and his jab is missing. Probably Paris’s only round.

Round 8, Paris lands consecutive lead rights, and starts to gain confidence. Judah takes back control in the second half, but isn’t as active as he was earlier.

Round 9, Judah comes out stalking, moving his head side to side, slips outside of a straight right, and counters with a hard straight left on Paris’s chin. He continues to land flush, punching through Paris’s shell, and overwhelms him with a speedy accumulation of punches that has the ref step in.

Interesting dynamics at play here. I picked Judah before, but he didn't look good enough for me to be so confident, given the difference in quality between Paris & Garcia, and Judah seems tentative whenever Paris leaped with the right hand; I wonder if Garcia is game enough to time him and/or discourage him with leaping shots. Then again, Judah could land one of those lightning right hooks. Hard to say how tentative Garcia will be. I think I slightly lean towards Garcia now, since he will be patient and not get discouraged amidst the exchanges and the anxiousness that comes with possibly eating shots in a tense speed-contest. Judah I can see becoming tentative down the stretch. But if he can go in and out with confidence and focus on countering Danny, he can win.


What do you guys think? Useful comparison? Any telling signs? Too much of a gap between Paris and Garcia? What punches and counters do you think will be the most relevant? Discuss :bbb

 

Ultimately I lean towards Garcia right now for the same reasons. Judah adjusted from Paris's counter-left hook, even though it wasn't landing flush, but the question is whether or not Judah comes in with the objective to neutralize it already. I agree I think Judah will be staying out of range and trying to jump in with jabs and straight lefts. If Garcia moves forward too often, I can see Judah walking him into something big. But as time goes on, if Garcia grows in confidence and starts taking risks like Paris did late, leaping into a quick right hand could discourage Judah and allow Garcia to become the authority in the ring with nothing to offset his otherwise simple pressure.

Judah has a window in the first half IMO to neutralize the angle and get his best shots off, either good enough to hurt and drop Danny or at least take him off of his game enough to trick him into walking something later, perhaps in the second half. If he's not effective, he'll get timid, then frantic and reckless, and either get backed up eating leads or foolishly get tricked into eating a bomb counter.

Interesting...obviously different stance, but a similar defensive/offensive dynamic with Garcia leading. I'll post the link for reference and take a look later to compare.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4w1KUX8Kr0[/ame]