Donaire is likely to have four victories, two over really solid competition, and one against a faded, but well known name. His only competition is Danny Garcia.
If Donaire beats Arce then it's definitely him IMO. Ward's win was great but you can't possibly win fighter of the year off one win unless it's a truly special win like Mayweather beating Pacquiao or the other way around. Danny Garcia comes close but I dunno, Erik Morales twice? If that 3rd fight of 2012 was against a different opponent then I think he might well have won it.
**** Ward, he only fought once this year against the weight drained corpse of Dawson Donaire is where it's at. After dispatching Arce he'll have 4 victories this year, all against top competition, including the ranked #1 in the division, the IBF champion, the WBO champion and a current #1 contender.
forgot Donaire vs Vasquez jr was this year **** he fights loads, gotta be Donaire id say Matthysse second