Breaking down Salido-Garcia through the lens of Garcia-Barros & Salido-Haya

In breaking down Garcia-Salido, I wanted to look at each fighter’s most recent fight against the opponent most similar to each other’s style. There’s nothing too complicated about this match-up, since each fighter’s style and rhythm is pretty consistent across different levels of opposition, so it’s pretty easy to identify each man’s potential strengths and weaknesses going into the fight.

For Salido, I chose his bout with Weng Haya. Haya’s style is close to Mikey’s, using short textbook combinations behind a jab, looking to use movement to offset pressure and land the sharper punches at a distance. A few notable differences are is less power and a tendency to bend his waist more than Mikey does. But otherwise, the stylistic mold is pretty similar. It’s worth noting Salido faced some measure of adversity in this fight, attributed by some to Haya as well as Salido’s own slight lack of focus.

For Garcia, I chose his last fight, against Jonathan Victor Barros. I didn’t pick this fight simply to show Mikey having trouble, but because Barros was having success using similar tactics to those Salido frequently uses. When he’s not boxing at range behind a high guard, Salido often dips forward as he advances, opening up the angle for an out-of-view overhand right, and follows up with hard combinations to the body and head on the inside. Barros was putting pressure on Garcia and ducking low while throwing his looping shots over the top in a similar manner. Once he closed the distance that way, Mikey was lured into more of a fight than we’re used to seeing him in.

I’ll start with Salido-Haya:

Early on, Salido is timing brilliant leads, particularly a hard lead right uppercut in round 1 that land flush. He has a heavy presence in the middle of the ring, and he controls the center without wasting too much energy as he cuts off the ring. He’s very eager offensively, and sometimes his looping leads leave him open, but there also seems to be calculated risk involved given the distance he throws them at, and he’s not always rushing forward recklessly, offering good parrying and head movement whenever Haya comes forward or steps into a jab.

In Round 3, Salido is offering a vicious body attack having hurt Haya, and in a moment of dropping his hands and going for the finish, he walks into a left hook Haya throws after side-stepping, and goes down. The shot barely registers on his nose, but Salido’s off-balance posture while throwing contributes to his spin to the canvas. In the very next round, Haya steps in with a looping left that doesn’t seem all that hard, but catches the still-vulnerable Salido and drops him on his rump. After a motivated Haya seeks to capitalize, Salido demonstrates he has dimension backing up, and makes Haya miss while landing vicious counters that hurt him and end up backing him up by the middle of the round.

Over the next few rounds, Salido composes himself extremely well, tightening up his offense, throwing shorter combinations, and working behind a long jab that sets up his offense. His more measured pace allows him to avoid a vast majority of shots that Haya is throwing (This is the patience that later brought him much success against Moises Gutierrez). This trend continues into the 7th, where Salido’s patience pays off with an uncounted but solid right-hand shot to the abdomen that puts Haya down, and then the final onslaught that forces a stoppage in the 8th.

Now to examine Garcia-Barros:

After an uneventful & even first round, both start opening up a bit more. Garcia blocks punches well by shelling up, holding his gloves in front of his face, but I notice Barros starts to take advantage by throwing up top and then going to the body. Mikey is maintaining range and launching the occasional hard right that seals him the round, but whenever Barros presses forward, Mikey seems slightly out of position to throw back. This is even more evident in the 4th round, where even though Mikey lands a few stiff shots and likely seals the round, is constantly pushed back on the back foot by Barros’s jabs and body work.

The 5th is Barros’s first clearly won round, and the more he jabs and presses, the less Mikey seems to throw. What he does end up throwing (aside from one solid overhand right) is neutralized well by Barros’s high guard, which he can afford to keep up as not much at all is going downstairs to the body from Mikey. In round 6, Barros is surprisingly getting the better of the jabbing contest, and both are opening up more to the body. Mikey lands harder and finally seems to be committing to a few more shots downstairs. By the last 35 seconds, an inside fight breaks out, and both are landing and defending on even terms, with Mikey landing harder and Barros landing a bit more frequently, using varied combinations.

In round 7 a leaping left bothered Mikey at the start. They show Robert Garcia pleading for the 1-2, which Mikey has success with when he throws but seems reluctant to, as Barros answers every one of his jabs with one of his own. Round 8 comes along and Barros continues to have success with body-head combinations, pushing Mikey back, with Mikey being far too patient and only popping out jabs and the occasional 1-2. When Mikey trades hooks with Barros and lands much more accurately and with great power, Barros goes down and oddly decides not to continue.

My thoughts on what these fights mean for a clash between the two:

It’s no secret that this fight has the makings of a war, with Mikey’s textbook straight punches and powerful counters competing with Salido’s pressure. Mikey has youth on his side, while Salido has the edge in much more experience.

I predict there will be a cautious battle of jabs early on, but as Salido presses, he’ll be the one focusing much more on the body. He may even eat more headshots early on, but it’s doubtful that Mikey catches him with something devastating in the first few rounds. Salido’s pressure is smart, and he’ll likely take command of the center of the ring from the start. It’s not easy to predict whether he’ll choose to use his jab, but given how effective he is when he does use it and how vulnerable and gun-shy Garcia has looked against an opponent who jabbed with him I’d say it would be a wise move. Assuming he gets at least to mid-range, Salido’s body shots are disgusting, and they may bother Mikey, who for most of his career has kept fighters at bay with his boxing ability.

It seems as if Garcia’s left hook will be pivotal to his success. Salido reaches most often with his overhand right. When he times it right, it’s devastating and opens up his entire offensive arsenal. When it misses, however, his chin is exposed by the dropping of his right shoulder, and the left hook is a perfect counter shot to exploit the forward momentum. I believe Garcia consistently catching Salido coming in and setting up his shots to meet Salido’s aggression head on is the only way he’ll have success. If the fight ends up on the inside, I fear Garcia might not be schooled enough on the inside to handle it, and will get out-gunned, or caught pulling out if he tries to escape without offering angles. If he can hurt Salido, which is possible, then he needs to follow up and stay responsible while throwing varied combinations. Head-hunting is not going to deter Salido, who has good upper-body movement, and will only give him more opportunities to counter on his way in with those looped shots. I predict however that unless Salido shows he is past-it (remember he’s no spring chicken anymore) and can’t recover from getting hurt in the first half, he’ll be able to take anything Mikey throws down the stretch. He took the best Gamboa and Lopez had to offer him and was never deterred from going the distance, and in the case of the latter, winning the war of attrition.

Let me know what you think. Was my breakdown of their fights accurate? Is my prediction fair? I’d like Garcia fans in particular to comment what they thought about his last fight against Barros. Many on the board seem undeterred from backing him without reservation and I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts. I wouldn't be overly surprised and not at all disappointed if he were to prove me wrong; I believe the kid has a bright future regardless of the outcome of this fight.

Discuss :bbb

 

Also just came across this video of Garcia's training camp. Looks like he's putting good work in, a few glimpses of sparring were interesting. Garcia also mentioned that they were purposefully cautious in the Barros fight to avoid cuts prior to the title fight, and that they know that's not going to work against Salido.

http://www.toprank.com/videos/title-shot-inside-garcias-training-camp-1

 

:good

Thanks man! That's the question-what can Mikey really do? I agree I think Salido's unstoppable as of now.

Great way to describe it my friend. He spreads his stance wide and hunches over with his chin tucked and his hands up high, but it's rare a fighter out-maneuvers him in the ring. His offense is very tricky, and it does remind me of some of the tricks Marquez uses when fighting out of a crouch.

That last part you mentioned will be pivotal; Mikey seems calm, but Salido will be rabid. It's one reason I kind of fear for Mikey; he's got the talent to move forward even with a loss, but if he's shell-shocked from the type of war he's never seen before, it could hold him back.



You all think my descriptions of those two fights were fair ones?

 

Let me know what you think when you do!

Just read the last part, that's the actual prediction.

Care to explain why you think so? What punches Mikey's going to use, why Salido's vulnerable to them, why you think Salido won't get inside, etc?