I believe it when I see them step in the ring. But if the fight does happen, we will see either Haye running to a decision loss, or we'll see Haye getting a bit cocky and being TKOed. Vitali wins either scenario.
David "no balls" gaye never wanted to fight Vitali in his prime or even 3-4 years ago, but when Vit got old and slow, he lost his power and speed, british clown is all over him now. Just a few years ago this would have been 90/10 fight in favor of Vit, but today i'd favor gaye, because Vit looks really old.
Vitali is a natural fighter. Barring injury this is a relatively easy fight for him. I was one of the first to predict Wlad/Haye would be a stinker reminiscent of Valuev/Haye. This could be different because of Vitali's attitude. He will dangle his left inviting Haye in. If Vitali doesn't pop the left in David's face as he closes the distance the right will be waiting. As already pointed out, Vitali WILL make Haye pay for mistakes. Vitali is crafty and will keep giving Haye 'just enough' hope to keep him engaged. Haye may finally give up and just revert to running though. Haye's only chance is that Vitali misjudges and gives him too good an opening trying to draw him in.
It was a mentality issue in the sense that Haye wasn't willing to adjust his style in a way that would actually give him a chance of beating Wlad. But to ask one to change the way they've always fought is asking a lot. Honestly, whether it is then or now Vitali was always more conducive to Haye's counter-punching oriented style. Vitali is more counter-punchable, but unfortunately he also has a very high out-put. Unless Haye can find a way to floor Vitali multiple times (Very unlikely), or stop Vitali (Possible, but certainly seems unlikely considering how poor of a finisher Haye is) it's going to be tough to win a decision. As you point out, it's how much Haye is willing to risk and how far Vitali has slipped. I honestly think Haye's lung suck so much that he simply can't fight at a high pace, particularly at HW. He was breathing out of his ass from Chisora simply walking him down and looking at him. Unless Haye gets an early stoppage, I almost think it doesn't matter how much Vitali has fallen. Still an interesting fight.
Vitali on the other hand is perhaps one of the coolest operators you will find in the ring and CHEF has told us about his work ethic. I think people underestimate the the stress Haye will be under to defend himself.
Nobody underestimates that. People have continuously reiterated that while Vitali reflexes and speed may have slipped his work-rate is far and away better than his brothers. I think Haye's simply going to get out-worked unless he can land the right home run. You're right, I certainly envision Vitali shipping Haye too many punches to deal with. It's possible I could be underestimating Haye. Haye physically looked better against Wlad than Chisora. I mean he was running but he was ducking, dodging, not throwing a lot of punches but he seemed to be fit enough to physically to do so if he had gumption to throw. Against Chisora Haye might not have trained with the same intensity. Haye's lungs looked pitiful. He was heavy breathing from just the mental stress of Chisora's pressure without Chisora even throwing. Vitali can do quite the same if Haye isn't willing to punch in between the punches.
I think the reason he looked gassed in the Chisora fight is the fact that he was loading up on his punches from the get go. Chisora had'nt been stopped before and took Vitali 12 Rounds, one of reasons he had to stop Chisora earlier in the fight. Well that's my opinion, I've been watching Haye for a while now though. I do agree he has stamina problems but that's more stylistic more than anything else. He's an explosive counter-puncher who goes hard for 1/3 of the round and recuperates in between rounds.
I can't see Haye take a decision from Vitali, unless he manages to floor him once or twice. Vitali is no Valuev and even against Valuev it was a 'close' fight on the scorecards. Now imagine the same vs. Vitali, again in Germany. Haye's best best IMO is a late TKO stoppage, on injury/cuts/swelling.