Canelo Alvarez is NOT beating Austin Trout

Unless his boys at GBP pulls some strings or if Canelo's power is underrated/Trout's toughness overrated.

First I must say that I applaud Canelo for taking this fight and he deserves tons of props. I'd been perfectly ok if he fought, Lara, Kirkland or Angulo in April or May. But he decided to take the best fight available to him in Trout and he deserves credit. But there is a reason why Schaefer and the top guys on GBP didn't want this fight to happen. "Right now there are four names that we are looking at and it's an open secret that Canelo's first choice is Austin Trout. It is an extremely, in my opinion, extremely dangerous fight." - Schaefer.

The main things that make me confident in Trout are his movement, workrate and stamina. He also has other good tools like his jab, defense, body attack and size. Canelo's main tools his his strength, combination punching, handspeed, straight right, body attack as well, and punching power.

Canelo has good tools to work with against Trout, but I feel like most of it will be neutralized. This will be a very competitive fight in the first few rounds, but Trout is going to take over around the mid rounds and win the fight. There's a good chance, Trout may sweep the last 4 to 5 rounds of the fight. Canelo's stamina is just very, very suspect. He's lucky he's been fighting a lot of opponents who will fight at his pace. Canelo likes to wait, wait, wait and then blast off a combination. Then repeat this process unless he has you hurt. In between his combinations, he'll jab some and take small steps while trying to counter you here or there.

If it's later in the fight, you'll see occurrences like this happening. Just watch rounds 6, 7 and 9
[yt]lhjNKBXEClA[/yt]
You'll notice Rhodes has his most success as a southpaw and not staying still. Then round 9 especially exemplifies my biggest issues with Canelo, his stamina.

This content is protected

yes that is Light Welterweight, Josesito Lopez punching Canelo on the ropes, because Canelo needed another breather

Then another thing these rounds highlight is Canelo's stationary feet. If you notice, he only tees off on his opponents when they are staying still. Give him a moving target, and we got a different fight. You can even look at the Alfonso Gomez fight as an example. Gomez only gets caught when he decides to stop moving or if he gets caught with a counter coming in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9s6amHSyZk

As we know with Trout he's not gonna stand in one spot. Trout is going to be moving laterally, giving Canelo angles and if against ropes will have good head movement or tie up. Canelo is like that one guy in the gym he only does heavybag work and hits it all day standing in one spot.

So you combine all these things, you find a stylistic nightmare in Trout. Who will consistently pump out his jab (who averages more jabs than anybody in the division). Moves constantly, is a southpaw and works for ALL 3 MINUTES of a round. Canelo can't do his usual wait, wait, fire pace. When he wants to box and try to counter Trout, Trout will be using his reach and jab to box with him while avoiding counters

This content is protected

[/IMG]

When Canelo wants to fire off his combinations, Trout will be moving or he'll tie up. Then when Canelo wants to rest, Trout won't be letting him rest. He'll be punching and working and making sure to use his left hand downstairs to sap more energy out of Canelo. He can fight go backwards and taking small steps backwards and move at angles offensively and defensively to expose Canelo's lack of footspeed. This gif explains it all. Trout comes in lands a combination upstairs and downstairs and gets out all a whole different angle while avoiding the counter.

This content is protected

I know the fight was boring, but go back and watch Trout vs Delvin Rodriguez to see to his use of his feet and how often he lands his left downstairs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU5u4zigcN4

Trout isn't this monster who should be top p4p up there with Ward. He's just a very good fighter with the right tools to be Canelo. This is a guy who beat a Canadian in Canada, Alvarez's own brother in Mexico and Miguel Cotto in New York. He's not afraid and uncomfortable in unfavorable environments. Expect to see another upset in April.
:bbb

 

Feel free to argue :thumbsup

 

yeah I'm exaggerating mostly to make sure I get enough responses.

and the fight will be tough for both. I agree with MannySteward(the poster), that Canelo has gotten noticeably better in each fight.