Canelo Alvarez is NOT beating Austin Trout

irishny · Mar 5, 2013

I remember people saying after the Cotto fight that Trout was a legit fighter,and that Canelo would never dream of fighting him.
I knew wehn there were talks of this fight being made that it would go like this...

"NO WAY Canelo wants any of Trout, Canelo is a fraud. Trout aint a blown up WW! LOL. Trout just beat Cotto better than Floyd did"

The minute the fight is signed,suddenly "Trout isnt all that good. All hes ever done is beat a fat,old ww"

ESB....same move... everytime

Genaro G · Mar 5, 2013

Whoever has their best night will win. Definitely a pick em fight that can go either way.

Bazooka · Mar 5, 2013

irishny said: ↑

I remember people saying after the Cotto fight that Trout was a legit fighter,and that Canelo would never dream of fighting him.
I knew wehn there were talks of this fight being made that it would go like this...

"NO WAY Canelo wants any of Trout, Canelo is a fraud. Trout aint a blown up WW! LOL. Trout just beat Cotto better than Floyd did"

The minute the fight is signed,suddenly "Trout isnt all that good. All hes ever done is beat a fat,old ww"

ESB....same move... everytime
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I am not so sure people were saying that I believe it was the other way around, Canelo untested fighting Jr welters would never fight Trout ect.....

I guess it depends on which post stand out the most to you

bballchump11 · Mar 5, 2013

jeffjoiner said: ↑

Great breakdown.

Footwork is always key for me. Canelo does plant before he throws and will find few opportunities when Trout is standing still. I can see a scenario in which Canelo keeps re-setting his feet, preventing him from throwing his combos.

However, the kid packs some thunder downstairs and I'm interested to see if that takes the air out of Trout's tires (to use some Teddy Talk). The second half of the fight holds all the questions for me: Will Trout slow down and give Canelo a target? Will Canelo fade and watch the fight slip away?
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very good point. A big wildcard to me is seeing just how much the young Alvarez improves come fight night. The body work is going to be important for both of them

Bogotazo · Mar 5, 2013

bballchump11 said: ↑

thanks man. I was expecting you to show up :good

very good point about Canelo's ability to cut off the ring compared to Cotto's. I think Canelo benefits from being a bigger guy in general, but he's not this monstrous pressure fighter some make him out to be. He's more of an aggressive boxer puncher in my eyes.

Canelo punching with Trout is a great idea and is also how I see him having the most success. Trout can be vulnerable when opening up and Cotto had success punching with him as well. Cotto could also move and punch at the same time. Good point. I remember that leaked video of Cotto training for Mayweather where he had Cotto constantly punching and moving while he chased Pedro Diaz around trying to get on the outside of his shoulder.

I agree with basically everything you said though. Thanks for contributing
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:thumbsup

bballchump11 · Mar 5, 2013

elchivito said: ↑

I think Canelo when he wants to can be an excellent defensive fighter and an underrated boxer, but won't keep it up for 12 rounds. So IMO his power overrated, but boxing is underrated. Of Trout he has respectable power, but overrated defense.
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I actually agree with some of this.

irishny · Mar 5, 2013

Bazooka said: ↑

I am not so sure people were saying that I believe it was the other way around, Canelo untested fighting Jr welters would never fight Trout ect.....

I guess it depends on which post stand out the most to you
Click to expand...

It was nearly all "no way will Canelo fight Trout, GBP will never allow it etc etc etc"

Now that the fight is made,the same haters have to find another way to belittle Canelo, so now,suddenly, Trout was never good to begin with.

After he beat Cotto, people were talking about how he beat Cotto better than Floyd.

Suddenly when the same people are proven wrong,and Canelo signs to fight Trout, those people suddenly start saying Trout has never beaten anyone,and that Cotto was "Only an old fat WW"

LACMEXAME · Mar 5, 2013

Impressive, BballChump11! I didn't know you got down like this. You posted some quality stuff and well put together. Even though I disagree with several things you said, I give you props for your BOLD prediction.

Canelo's stamina wasn't as bad as you claim in this fight. Plus, every man is entitled to a breather haha.

You don't always have to fight like a machine. Canelo paces himself but is studying and waiting on your move as well. Canelo has proven to be a good counter puncher. Mayweather isn't a guy who is always active either. There's nothing wrong with that. Unless Trout starts attacking and Canelo doesn't retaliate. I expect Canelo to counter. It's up to trout if he wants to risk.

I think Canelo will win but it's a tough one to call. I just think Canelo hasn't shown everything he's got. I expect Canelo's ACCURACY and TIMING to play big. This is where I think Canelo will surprise Trout.

Props to you again.

LACMEXAME · Mar 5, 2013

HawkFan16 said: ↑

No clue where this "Trout is slick" business is coming from. Sure, the actual fish is slippery. Austin Trout is not. He's a capable boxer with decent physical strength, footspeed, and stamina. He does NOT possess overwhelming handspeed, power, combination punching, or defensive reflexes/positioning.

Austin Trout did not beat Miguel Cotto because of his technical skills; he beat Cotto because he was a natural 154 pounder and Cotto is not. Cotto was more competitive with Floyd (even though Floyd is much more skilled than Trout) because Cotto is physically bigger than Mayweather and was noticeably stronger in close quarters. Cotto was able to hit Trout plenty during the middle rounds before he gasses, mostly from mid-range; Trout was able to frustrate Cotto with his jab and muscle him back and away in close almost entirely based on his physical dimensions and Cotto's T-Rex arms. Even then, it was still a close fight before Cotto gassed as he often does late and Trout swept the late rounds.

Cotto also got Trout without the threat of a serious right hand. Wondering why Trout could get away with throwing a ton of jabs and straight lefts to the body? He wasn't concerned at all about eating straight rights to the face , and Cotto was too short to and had too short of arms to punish the repeated right jabs with any left hooks to the body; and on the off chance he did get in close, Trout was too strong and too big for his work to be effective.

If people think Trout will be able to easily boss Canelo around- when Ginger is taller, has longer arms, and is much thicker and more heavily built than Cotto- you're very likely in for a rude awakening. Then there's also the fact Ginger has superior handspeed and hits harder than Cotto.

Canelo might have slower feet than Trout, but Trout only has 1" of reach, and Canelo has faster hands. Canelo will always find Trout before Trout finds him if they're throwing.

If you think that Trout is a nightmare match for Canelo because he moves and jabs a lot, well, he'd be a fool to do that to ginger. If he's spamming that jab, he'll be exposing his body to ginger's left to the body- which will be easier to find since Trout's a southpaw. Straight left to the body? Ginger will be able to counter that with his straight right upstairs.

Canelo's more of a stalking counterpuncher than a pressuring volume brawler; if you're not opening up against him and giving him chances to counter with his fast, heavy counters, he doesn't look as good. Trout doesn't fight nearly negatively enough or hit hard enough to seriously screw with him.

Erislandy Lara and Carlos Molina would both give Ginger more trouble than Trout would. I'm very confident Canelo wins though. IF Trout were some fleet-footed dude with blazing handspeed, crunching power, amazing technical skills with Paul Williams' frame and Whitaker's defense- basically, if he were as good as his recent crop of fans would have you believe- sure, he'd tool Ginger. But he's not. He's an above average boxer with a decent jab, decent footspeed, average power, and decent stamina (which probably looked better than it actually is last fight because Cotto is known for stamina problems.)

Canelo can and will win this fight. He has more power, handspeed, better combination punching, body punching, and solid defense and timing. And Trout doesn't have the attributes or the skills to seriously screw with him.

Floyd, even with his lack of size, would be much more troublesome for Ginger than Trout, mainly because Floyd wouldn't take the lead on Ginger; Floyd's defense is good enough to give him confidence in allowing Canelo to throw first and more but still outland him and win. Trout's defense ain't that good, and he doesn't have Floyd's accuracy or timing, so he'll have to open up and lead on Ginger to outland him; and if he does that, Canelo will have the openings he needs to break him down. If Trout tastes that power and decides he doesn't want to get stopped, he'll go into retreat mode and get outworked to a decision loss by a supposedly weak-stamina'd Canelo.

Canelo can be beaten, but Trout ain't the guy to do it. I wouldn't have avatar bet the TS in another thread if I wasn't fully sure of that.

I just hope he remembers after April 20. If Ginger loses, I'm prepared to eat crow and admit it; somehow, I don't see a lot of the Trout fans/Canelo haters being willing to though.
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Another good BOLD analysis. Good stuff HAWK.

bballchump11 · Mar 5, 2013

Slickstar said: ↑

Your good friend bogotazo will enjoy this JMMism

Alvarez fans projecting their insecurities onto Trout fans. Alvarez has fought no one yet some fans are trying to will it as if fate will push him to be an ATG. He's decent, but he's far from one of the most talented young fighters we have ever seen.

You know how he has suspect stamina, and Trout works the left to the body early on? Alvarez slow feet and tendency to "follow" will leave him with sloppy footwork as the round goes by turning him into a slugger who can't reach his target.

I'm calling bull****.

Shot Mosley with the no reflexes was able to throw his infamously soft jab at Alvarez midsection without paying. Alvarez has a counter right, but it comes over the top of a head jab.
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:good that's why I think the straight left to the body will be very important for Trout.

HawkFan16 said: ↑

No clue where this "Trout is slick" business is coming from. Sure, the actual fish is slippery. Austin Trout is not. He's a capable boxer with decent physical strength, footspeed, and stamina. He does NOT possess overwhelming handspeed, power, combination punching, or defensive reflexes/positioning.

Austin Trout did not beat Miguel Cotto because of his technical skills; he beat Cotto because he was a natural 154 pounder and Cotto is not. Cotto was more competitive with Floyd (even though Floyd is much more skilled than Trout) because Cotto is physically bigger than Mayweather and was noticeably stronger in close quarters. Cotto was able to hit Trout plenty during the middle rounds before he gasses, mostly from mid-range; Trout was able to frustrate Cotto with his jab and muscle him back and away in close almost entirely based on his physical dimensions and Cotto's T-Rex arms. Even then, it was still a close fight before Cotto gassed as he often does late and Trout swept the late rounds.

Cotto also got Trout without the threat of a serious right hand. Wondering why Trout could get away with throwing a ton of jabs and straight lefts to the body? He wasn't concerned at all about eating straight rights to the face , and Cotto was too short to and had too short of arms to punish the repeated right jabs with any left hooks to the body; and on the off chance he did get in close, Trout was too strong and too big for his work to be effective.

If people think Trout will be able to easily boss Canelo around- when Ginger is taller, has longer arms, and is much thicker and more heavily built than Cotto- you're very likely in for a rude awakening. Then there's also the fact Ginger has superior handspeed and hits harder than Cotto.

Canelo might have slower feet than Trout, but Trout only has 1" of reach, and Canelo has faster hands. Canelo will always find Trout before Trout finds him if they're throwing.

If you think that Trout is a nightmare match for Canelo because he moves and jabs a lot, well, he'd be a fool to do that to ginger. If he's spamming that jab, he'll be exposing his body to ginger's left to the body- which will be easier to find since Trout's a southpaw. Straight left to the body? Ginger will be able to counter that with his straight right upstairs.

Canelo's more of a stalking counterpuncher than a pressuring volume brawler; if you're not opening up against him and giving him chances to counter with his fast, heavy counters, he doesn't look as good. Trout doesn't fight nearly negatively enough or hit hard enough to seriously screw with him.

Erislandy Lara and Carlos Molina would both give Ginger more trouble than Trout would. I'm very confident Canelo wins though. IF Trout were some fleet-footed dude with blazing handspeed, crunching power, amazing technical skills with Paul Williams' frame and Whitaker's defense- basically, if he were as good as his recent crop of fans would have you believe- sure, he'd tool Ginger. But he's not. He's an above average boxer with a decent jab, decent footspeed, average power, and decent stamina (which probably looked better than it actually is last fight because Cotto is known for stamina problems.)

Canelo can and will win this fight. He has more power, handspeed, better combination punching, body punching, and solid defense and timing. And Trout doesn't have the attributes or the skills to seriously screw with him.

Floyd, even with his lack of size, would be much more troublesome for Ginger than Trout, mainly because Floyd wouldn't take the lead on Ginger; Floyd's defense is good enough to give him confidence in allowing Canelo to throw first and more but still outland him and win. Trout's defense ain't that good, and he doesn't have Floyd's accuracy or timing, so he'll have to open up and lead on Ginger to outland him; and if he does that, Canelo will have the openings he needs to break him down. If Trout tastes that power and decides he doesn't want to get stopped, he'll go into retreat mode and get outworked to a decision loss by a supposedly weak-stamina'd Canelo.

Canelo can be beaten, but Trout ain't the guy to do it. I wouldn't have avatar bet the TS in another thread if I wasn't fully sure of that.

I just hope he remembers after April 20. If Ginger loses, I'm prepared to eat crow and admit it; somehow, I don't see a lot of the Trout fans/Canelo haters being willing to though.
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Trout isn't just a natural 154lber, he's a big 154lber. He's bigger than guys like Molina and Lara. And I'm glad you brought up the fact that Trout took over after Cotto gassed. I expect the same thing to happen to Canelo.

Cotto's tendency to gas in fights is more on display because of the guys he is fighting. Margarito and Pacquiao will expose any fighter's suspect conditioning. Watch round 9 of the Rhodes fight where Canelo inexplicably runs around the ring with his mouth open for about 2 minutes from fatigue.

and Cotto did attempt to counter his left hand with a few right hands

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and both Molina and Lara give Canelo tough fights. I think they lose though despite me being a bigger Lara fan than I am a fan of anybody in the division if you don't count Floyd. Lara' inactivity and vulnerability to left hooks downstairs keep me from picking him.

and nobody is saying Trout is a beast or a future HOF. It may offend some of Canelo's fans, but you don't have to be a future HOF in order to beat him.

and don't worry, I'll eat plenty of crow if Canelo wins, but I don't see it. Not with the evidence I've seen so far.

PR BOXING · Mar 5, 2013

Smokin' Joe said: ↑

[yt]T3bvNWzsKV4[/yt]

Trout's a cool cat.
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He looks like Shane Mosley and Manny Steward put together!

bballchump11 · Mar 5, 2013

LACMEXAME said: ↑

Impressive, BballChump11! I didn't know you got down like this. You posted some quality stuff and well put together. Even though I disagree with several things you said, I give you props for your BOLD prediction.

Canelo's stamina wasn't as bad as you claim in this fight. Plus, every man is entitled to a breather haha.

You don't always have to fight like a machine. Canelo paces himself but is studying and waiting on your move as well. Canelo has proven to be a good counter puncher. Mayweather isn't a guy who is always active either. There's nothing wrong with that. Unless Trout starts attacking and Canelo doesn't retaliate. I expect Canelo to counter. It's up to trout if he wants to risk.

I think Canelo will win but it's a tough one to call. I just think Canelo hasn't shown everything he's got. I expect Canelo's ACCURACY and TIMING to play big. This is where I think Canelo will surprise Trout.

Props to you again.
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:yep thanks, I do troll a lot, but I can occasionally come with substantive stuff. I'm like a very, very watered down version of Boxed Ears

and we'll see. Like I mentioned b4, Canelo is like Broner and a few other young talents, that you can see them get noticebly better with each fight. It's possible he comes out and knocks this test out the park

Slickstar · Mar 5, 2013

I'd pick Alvarez to beat Lara. Lara stamina is even more suspect

Eastcoast · Mar 5, 2013

Trout might win the fight, but he's already lost the decision. I expect a close and competitive fight, styles are different but maybe a similar scenario to Wright-Vargas.

turbotime · Mar 5, 2013

I agree Bball. I think after our chat the other day and this excellent thread that Trout wins this fight. However if it is in any way close, I'm guessing Canelo gets the nod.

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