Canelo Alvarez is NOT beating Austin Trout

I've been trying to figure out the same thing

 

I been watching Trout vs David Lopez (Lopez looked like a LHW in there, tower over Trout).....It's lefty vs lefty, so it don't mean much either, but Trout is boxing his ass off so far...

 

It's no secret that I felt Canelo was trash, but he does seem to be getting better. This is going to be a decent scrap.

 

I'll check that out later :good I tried looking for some Trout before, but only the Del Rod fight was available when I checked a few months ago

 

Well to begin with, Canelo should throw at mid range. He's got a good height on him and shouldn't neglect that looking for a strictly inside fight from the start. Looking to grapple and smother IMO just makes it easier for trout to circle away from the ropes or tie up and restart at long range. Part of controlling the center more planted and conservative is throwing shots with full extension. Only when truly cornered should Canelo lean and smother, probably later in the fight. Throwing with Trout successfully requires Trout to initially believe that he's safe throwing his straight shots or slappy right hook, and that's when Canelo will place his shots to the body or down the middle.

 

I can't see where he's fought ANY lefties, atleast none of note.

 

Exactly, Canelo trying to crowd and smother Trout would sacrifice his advantages in handspeed and power. He needs to stay at mid-range to maximize those attributes. If he were to try and pressure Trout in close, he would be playing into his hands.

The right move for Canelo is to be conservative, stay in the center, and let Trout move around he perimeter and flick out his arm punches, while Canelo looks for chances to unleash his big counters. Taking the lead and pressuring Trout wouldn't play to Ginger's strengths, and he's not necessarily fleet-footed enough to try and close in on and pressure Trout effectively.

If Canelo stays disciplined, he could punish Trout by spamming the left hook to the body whenever Trout throws the jab or the right hook and exposes his body to it, and then come back up top with another left hook or a right hand. Similarly, if Trout is throwing the straight left to the head or the body, Canelo should try and counter that with an overhand right. Trout would be especially vulnerable to that as a Southpaw if he tried to go to the body.

I expect Trout to land more jabs, and perhaps more total punches, than Alvarez, but I expect Canelo to land more power punches and win a decision or eventually break Trout down for a late TKO. The difference in handspeed and power will be evident early on in the fight, and enable Alvarez to get to Trout first and with more authority in exchanges, as well as allow Alvarez to let Trout take the lead with confidence. He won't have to be too worried about his power or style; I think more negative guys who absolutely won't take the lead on Alvarez, like Molina or Lara, are worse matchups for Canelo than an arm-punching volume boxer like Trout. He's not the slick defensive counterpuncher people say he is.

 

Alvarez' hands aren't faster, and he hasn't proven to be an elite puncher.

 

:good

 

Very well said

 

This may be the most important factor.

 

Good observations in the OP. Trout's style is not good for Alvarez, but the flip side is that Alvarez isn't dumb and will most likely be in top shape for this fight and have a new game plan. The problem is that Trout will be fighting like he normally does while Alvarez will be the one forced to adjust.

Alvarez' best chance will be to punch with Trout instead of trying to take turns as he so often does. He'll need to hurt Trout and possibly put him down because Trout is too active. The key will be to punch with him, sort of like Danny Garcia did to Khan. He will get beaten clearly if he tries to fight in his normal style.

 

Said the same thing a few pages back, good to see a number of posters agreeing with that strategy.

 

After the fight someone bump this ! Canelo stops him simple as !

 

Hell would have to be -40 degrees before Canelo can win this fight. His father could be the ref and the judge and DelaHoya be another judge but he can't beat Trout.Trout's just too good and intelligent he won't lose to Canelo.Canelo will tagged by the bigger man everytime he tries to get inside and get hit by the jab everytime he steps outside.Canelo's over rated