Canelo Alvarez is NOT beating Austin Trout

i think handspeed is equal and, if so, canelo will be exploited by the length of trout if he does not get inside and grapple taking away the distance.

if canelo is indeed slower, then trouts jab and length will create problems for saul which hell need to close the distance and in-fight where his short arms will be at an advantage.

imo speed is equal here, mobility and experience favor trout, therefore, canelo must be stronger.

if saul is not stronger in the clinch and trout is successful in spinning, countering and physically pushing him off, then i dont give him much chance even with the judges in his favor.

canelo is a bully and when bullies cant bully the outcomes generally do not end in their favor.

trout has been in with both rigoberto and lopez, journeyman mw's, and i dont think hes going to get bullied in this fight.

 

that will be extremely difficult to do if trout is as fast as canelo because saul will be eating stiff jabs the entire time of the fight(look at the gymansium photo that Doc posted, trout has a signifgant reach advantage) trying to land the counter left hook. a straight punch is faster than a hook.

consistently eating a stiff jab is a very good way to freeze an opponents back(i believe that this was mentioned early in the dlh/vargas fight by big george when dlh was having success wiht his jab).

 

Trout is faster on his feet than Saul, but his punches are kind of weak, slappy arm punches with little force or weight behind them. Comparing Trout's jab to a prime DLH is a pretty big stretch, Oscar's jab was harder, faster, and more versatile; he could go to the body or hook off it very well. Trout's jab isn't the multifaceted weapon that Oscar's jab was. It can't wear or break people down in the same way. The best Trout can do with his jab is annoy Saul, but it isn't going to seriously hurt or discourage him.

Trout really has only demonstrated great physical strength against the much smaller Cotto. That was what enabled Trout to control the fight: he was just too big and too strong for Cotto to do any effective work in close or stay in his preferred mid range for long. Trout had the most success in the fight when he was smothering Miguel in close or throwing a lot of arm punches at long range. Cotto had success and could hit him pretty easily when he could burst in for big shots at mid range, but he could never stay there for long before he got muscled back and Trout fled, or Cotto himself languished on the inside.

And then Miguel gassed late, probably because he kept trying to work inside on the bigger, stronger man. A huge part of Trout's win over Cotto was simply his physical advantages; it would be naive to assume he can bully Saul or tank his shots in the same way. Saul hits harder than Cotto, has a much better right hand, and is much thicker and stronger as well. Trout won't be able to muscle Canelo out of mid range or shake his hits off like he did with Cotto.

 

Here's my biggest critique of all these fan made gameplans for Alvarez. Fans are asking Alvarez to do what he doesn't do.

This isn't Mayweather or Hopkins here where you can name anything and have it executed

 

Unless Canelo really hurts Trout in the first 6 rounds, I think Austin outboxes him no problem through 12.

 

Alvarez is going to get his flat footed, stiff, and left hook loving ass outboxed.

Fighters of this mold don't perform well against fleet footed southpaws.

Cotto vs pacquiao
Pavlik vs Martinez
Chavez Jr vs Martinez

It's like asking a white boy, which Alvarez can pass for, to outdance a club full of black people. They can't keep up with the southpaw. Alvarez is too white, too tight.

 

Alvarez doesn't have the flavor and rhythm to do Juan's signature counter on lefties.

 

We dont know that just yet, the kid has quick hands himself and yes Trouts might be a little quicker but honestly Trout in his fight with Rodriguez slowed himself down because as he threw there was something coming back.

in other words, Trout respected the power and counter punching ability of Rodriguez, I am sure we will see a similar approach in this fight, Canelo can counter he is fast he has some pop on his shots.

Keep looking at Trout beating up on a dead miguel cotto who couldnt pull the trigger in spots, who was well past his prime and was not really that well suited for 154.

Canelo is the opposite of that, young and can pull the trigger, full fledged Jr Middle with some power. if Cotto was able to bop Trout with solid left hooks and good body shots Canelo will be able to do that as well.....

The difference is going to come down to weather or not Trout can fend off Canelo, if he cant he gets broken down to the body probably stopped later in the fight....

Tuff fight to call here..... I like both guys, I want a clear win no robbery no close fight so who ever wins I hope its by stoppage..

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Trout's clinching and willingness to hit the dick will make the ordeal even more frustrating for Alvarez.

 

What's that point of the photo? You mention how Trout's best win was against a pass prime Cotto yet post Alvarez vs shot blown up Baldomir

 

I must not have noticed this yet....

I did notice when I watched his fight against David Destroyer Lopez last night he would do that old school trick of punching to the hip....like Chavez used to do.

 

Trout's bodywork is going to be the game changer. He just casually sticks straights and jabs downstairs. It'll put Alvarez suspect stamina into question.

Trout has enough power to keep Alvarez honest. He dazed Cotto with a left as early as round one.

 

its not about Baldomir its about the series of shots, as Balomir is squared up now look at the Trout Cotto gif, Trout gives up his Southpaw stance by moving inside to throw at Cotto, which takes the southpaw advantage out of the mix.

Cotto simply covers up and tries to catch him on the back end, firing a left hook that misses as Trout Pivots out to his right.
Canelo in this gif shows you as Baldomir moves in even though he isnt a south paw once inside that is no longer a factor, Canelo takes a half step back and fires the right hand lead (which is known as the Southpaw killer) and follows up with that vicious left hook.

So if he does this as Trout moves in like that he will catch Trout because Trout loves to give up the south paw advantage bend his knees and work the body, if Canelo takes that half step back while Trout moves in and Fires that right hand left hook like that, Trout bends into the right hand, and gets caught with the left hook before he has time to pivot out....


I cant wait for this fight because to me it all going to come down to adjustments...... pick em fight.