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Interesting. He has a better shot at Martinez at this point so that would be my answer.... Both fights are dangerous though.
Go after both, Martinez first. My opinion is he'd lose both but might as well chalk up some dough. Moving up and losing doesn't diminish you as bad as a loss in your own weight class so the Canelo fight could still be made.
Alvarez first. I don't think Cotto was ever serious about Martinez just yet as Sergio is the wrong kind of guy for him to fight. Look at the trouble Miguel had with Trout. Sergio would be far worse. Stronger, faster, with KO power. I think Cotto was using Sergio as leverage for an Alvarez fight and it looks like it may have worked. Miguel would've been lucky to make 5 mill vs Martinez, far less than the 10 mill GB is offering.
I would favor him against both at this point. A question one has to ask is "would/could he get the decision in a close fight?" and I reckon he would against Sergio. There is a huge economic incentive for almost all parties involved in the fight to rob Cotto in a the same situation vs. Canelo. Given the many strange decisions in big fights the last couple of years Cotto and his people should expect it. If Martinez fights like he did against Murray, Cotto should be a solid favorite.
I'd do Martinez first on PR Day Weekend. If he wins, then canelo could jump up to 160 for an even bigger payday for both fighters.
canelo is winnable fight and more lucrative. problem is, he's signed with hbo for next fight i believe. notice i didn't say top rank.
Let's add another wrench to this situation..... Let's say he does face Martinez at 157 and wins.... That would give Mayweather incentive at winning yet another WBC title and face Cotto.... Thoughts? Goldenboy even offered that the fight could be at Las Vegas or Madison Square Garden.. his offer is good too...
if gbp guarantees his 10mil purse against canelo, he should take that. i don't think cotto can get a guaranteed 10mil against sergio. and both this fight i think won't get .75 mil ppv. so 500,000 x $65 = 32.5 /2 = 16.25mil...which leaves 6.25 mil for canelo and gbp.
ding ing ding cotto koing a journyman in his last fight just got himself an 8 figure payday. brilliant
Canelo is the fight to be made. It a very winnable fight and that would make the Martinez a bigger ppv. He can forget about a rematch with Mayweather because don't do rematches. Castille was his only one. None since then.
Martinez is still a dangerous opponent, but the W against Sergio would mean much more in terms of legacy and future earnings. Canelo is also a big draw and could give Cotto problems, but the timing just isn't right with Ginger coming off his first loss.
If he could get 7.5 mil for martinez, id say go for it. I think he could be battered worse by Alvarez, also losing to martinez on a move up doesn't look as bad and maybe he could still cash out in 1 last fight with canelo.