Holyfield, Tyson, Bowe, Vitali, Wilder, Wlad competition analysis

True dat...

Povetkin always has been underrated.

 

Why have we elected not to include Povetkin and other guys such as Joe Frazier, Joe Louis, Primo Carnera, or Pete Rademacher?

Stats like this could end up making Seth Mitchell look good.

Selecting the median record of their opposition would be much better than picking the average (a couple 12-34 opponents early on inaccurately skew the rest of the opposition into looking collectively worse).

 

Interesting set of numbers. They show a bit of a trend I guess. But not sure how much they really prove.

 

How are you going to connect the era of Holyfields' first 31 fights with the era of Wilders' first 31 fights? But draw the line and not allow for anyone before him and his opposition? And why do they have to hit 31 fights? Shouldn't it be 31 or less? And why do they have to be undefeated or only one defeat?

How do any of your criteria make the goal of "competition analysis" any more accurate? It doesn't...

 

If you were to make a similar list for 25 fights, then Povetkin would probably be #1 among the listed boxers. Also, Povetkin's opponents have a combined 658 wins, which is more than any other competition (except Holyfield and Lewis) even he had about 4 fights less than the others, which makes way more impressive than majority of the listed boxers by this criteria. If he was to fight 4 easy opponents next, his percentage ratio would still be the best, so judging by this criteria, his level of competition is way superior to those of others.

But back in reality, this criteria isn't realistic, nor it realistically shows the quality of boxers' development.

For example, it took Povetkin almost 3 years to have 15 fights. Of course, the competition he faced during that time was amazing and therefore it was logical to have less fights. Then we can notice that the level of his opposition stagnated for the next 3 years until he fought Chagaev in his 22nd fight. The reason behind that (likely) was that he had made a name of himself and justified the amateur pedigree during the first 15 fights, and then decided to play it safe until he fought for the belt.

So at the end when we sum it, it took him 8 years to reach 27 fights. It took Wladimir 3 years for the same thing. Looking at this, we'd say that Wladimir was brought faster and took the tougher path. But, there is one important thing that changes the view. Povetkin took on way better opponents during his 15 fights than Wladimir did for 30 fights. Povetkin reached those 15 fights in less than 3 years, similar time it took Wlad for his 30 fights. Povetkin already became a contender after 15 fights / 3 years, so objectively, it took them similar time to bypass the prospect status and become contenders, with Povetkin doing it more impressively. Of course, that doesn't mean Povetkin 3 years from debut was better than Wladimir 3 years from debut, but it does provide some picture of boxers' development, with Wladimir being an example of a normal prospect development and Povetkin a more risky/tougher method.

Then we have someone like Wawrzyk, whom it took 7 years to reach 25 fights and become a contender, but unlike Povetkin, his opposition was very bad and of course didn't get him ready for the big scene. He then fought Povetkin and got destroyed in a couple of rounds. This is a pure example of a boxer being brought carefully and being overprotected with an objective to eventually have one big fight and that's it.

As for Deontay Wilder, he wasn't brought exactly like Wawrzyk, but the period was also too long. It took him 5 years to become a contender after having 30 fights. So it's far away from Povetkin who only needed 15 fights in 3 years, or Wladimir who needed 3 years for his 30 fights, but it's still way better than Wawrzyk's 7 years. Bottom line, Wilder was still overprotected and it is unlikely that his relatively light competition got him ready for the top guys. So far, his power worked well for him, but he displayed poor movement, poor balance and not good technique either. He doesn't keep the distance well, and if that thing is notable against the opponents who have no idea nor sense of distance themselves, you can bet he is in a real trouble against the boxers that are experts for distance and timing. It's notable that he punches very hard, but he shouldn't base his game around that, because it will fail him at some point. It would be a lot better if he schooled a guy and put a beating on him even without scoring a KO, rather than not looking impressive for 3 or 4 rounds before knocking a guy out you were supposed to knock out to begin with.
Another thing is that Wilder is now getting some attention and therefore the expectations go higher than before. In my opinion he is rightfully criticized of taking a "safe route", I'm not sure if it's him or his managers and promoters, but I'm not sure if that path will make him ready for the best. Of course, there are many people that are making such a big deal of it (some of them also have more than just "critics" towards him), maybe at the end he turns out to be a championship material, only the time will tell. From my point of view, he better start developing faster because it's not like he has a plenty of time. He is near 30 and he is still lacking some stuff the boxers are supposed to know in early 20s. He doesn't have all the time of this world and I'm not sure if he will be able to significantly improve all of those aspects until it's too late. I assume that this year will be crucial for him so it will be very interesting to see what happens next.

 

Fabulous.

 

Well, I see you picked exactly 30/31 fights to compare Wilder with the others, I just said that generally it's not a measure of "who fought the better opposition" for the mentioned reasons. Some guy could still be a prospect after 30 fights, while some guy could be a contender after only 15 (or look at Lomachenko after only 2 fights). Povetkin could now go and face 4 easy opponents and easily bypass Holyfield's ratio, which he will probably do anyway assuming he doesn't fight Klitschko again during the next 4 fights. I doubt that Fury, Wilder or Jennings would want to fight Povetkin at this point in their careers, since they would all be the underdogs and would need some time to get back their careers on the track if they lose. They would get paid very well though, so anything is possible. Mansour is a random guy though, would be a 2 rounds job for Povetkin in my opinion. Hopefully Povetkin fights some tough known guy next like his promoter said.