Bermane Stiverne vs. Deontay Wilder speculation & discussion

with don king involved, I would not be surprised if something suspect happens.

lets really hope not, its on a global stage.

 

ESB has a groupthink that if a fighter has weak whiskers they always bet against him. No matter the style matchup, no matter the phyisical parameters. In ESB land a weak chin always loses because you "just have to catch it once". It's a very dumb simpleton theory but that's ESB for you.

 

I don't buy into this glass-chin-always-loses theory. Yes, Wilder has a ****py chin but so does Wlad. Stiverne has a bad work rate and basically was a tiny bit lucky he was able to counter Arreola so nicely.

I will probably regret it but I'll pick Wilder by KO here.

 

Stiverne always fought in a nutshell contering taller guys in the ams. Wilder will get spark early within three I predict. Chicken will be dancing.

 

wilder ko 1-3, and striverne to win seem like good complimentary bets.

thinking the bookies never got it wrong is a good way to **** yourself betting.

 

we the players set the final odds.

go try to bet couple of millions for Stiverne and look the odd movement.bookies create a betting event giving back money to the players about 90-98 %.

bookies don't care who is the favourite or who wins,usually.

 

I agree with this. Lots of sheep on ESB. It's been like that since I've been here.

 

That of course is incorrect. Bookies 'balance the book' and don't take directional bets. Well mostly, of course you always have idiots who think they're smarter than the market. Over the long run, a bookie who takes directional bets is a dead bookie. They don't last long.

A bookie lives off the spread, just like a broker in the stock market. A tiny margin he inserts into the odds as he balances the book. Bookies compete amongst eachother by trying to offer smaller margins.

 

OK , so you think the entire public is injecting money on Wilder , while the sharks try to "even it out" with Steverne ? and the sharks cant balance it out ? If you look at most of the fights , on closing day they all had reasonable odds (from a objective prespective) , its very uncommen to have a 2-1 odds at closing and believe its the public still pushing the whales around.
if the 2-1 odds are not close to reality then the non public gamblers with big money will come and bet on stevierne (as you think he IS actually the fav).
when big money goes Steve way odds should drop (as you mentinoed they need to balance the books) , so for now all the money still goes to wilder , which means that Vegas believes he is going to win.

 

Hope the fight is as close as the odds.

 

Well said.

 

Of course bookies always win , but what I`m saying is that in case of "too good to be true odds" or in this case REVERSE odds , you would make a case of most of the betting cummunity (not the general public) to bet on Steiverne as it gives such a high ROI , in your eyes (and you believe others that follow the sport and have money to bet) he not only getting outstanding odds but he is the fav to win !!! if big money goes to Steve odds should thumble down otherwise the bookies can`t keep their book balanced (which is what bookies are all about). when i say they dont get it wrong its not that they always PREDICT the winner , is that generally they get to a point where the odds refelect the true balance of power (so much money - smart/punters) , in some cases (Bute/Froch , Pavlik/Hopkins) the odds got it completely wrong , but in general they give good indications to the fav.

 

Kirk man, what are you doing up at this hour?

But well put :good