Do you think Duran could make things tough in for Pavlik to pick up the decision? Or does he get bullied out of the contest?
Duran is just too small. Pavlik hits extremely hard and won't be tentative as Hagler was (who had seen better days anyway).
Pavlik is pretty predictable (1-2...1-2..etc) though and if anyone is going to figure him out and counter it would be Duran. He probably doesn't have the size or stamina at the weight though
Pavlik is like a harder hitting, more durable but less skilled mark kaylor, to compare him to an eighties middleweight. In other words as long as its the Duran from hagler or even Barkley he should win a close decision. Probably not a popular opinion but i think Barkley at his best would back pavlik up and starch him.
As Mantequilla said, the Duran from Hagler or Barkley should win. But I'll see your 'close decision' and raise you a beating of the "Red headed step-child vareity!" Seriously, I like Pavlik but he's Taylor made for a fighter with cute skills like Duran had at 160.
At middleweight IMO maybe Pavlik is a bit too big for Duran. I can't stop thinking of Thomas Hearns. Though Hearns was a different sort of fighter compared to Kelly Pavlik. Still, the result is not a foregone conclusion. H2H Duran starches Pavlik. No question.
Pavlik is too big. I hate to compare Pavlik to Hearns, but long range and powerful 1-2s worked on the 147 Duran.
It wasn't the "long range and powerful 1,2s" that worked on Duran --it was the fast twitch fibers. The Duran that faced Hagler and likely the Duran that faced Barkley would handle Pavlik -especially over 12. Pavlike is predictable, makes mistakes, and doesn't have the requisite speed to do damage often enough to take out Duran -Duran would counter the hell out of him and it is more than conceivable that he would stagger him. Barkley was stronger and more dangerous, and he got rubbery in round one from a right counter over a jab that was faster than Kelly's.
At first glance, Pavlik's physical presence appears too much for a former lightweight. But you can't look past Duran's ability at the higher weights when he was 1) focused and 2) matched with a slower, basic, predictable opponent. Pavlik fits this mold. Duran would have the most success when he's in close, countering Pavlik. However, I get the feeling that Pavlik would win a decision based on his size and aggression behind a long left jab which would win him most of the rounds.
I take Duran, if Pavlik is too big for him than what was barkely? Both were fairly predictable, one-dimensional punchers, pretty much made for Duran at higher weights.
Kelly Pavlik may turn out to be a great champion, but as of yet, I'm not convinced. Hell, he did ok against Taylor, but he hasn't even made one defense yet. I'm not sure if he's the "thing" or not yet. I'd say, that if he met Duran in some mythical arena, for a 15 round title defense that the Duran of the Barkley fight would confound the boxing world and electrify the fans by decking and outhustling Pavlik in an exciting, wild and wooly brawl that would feature the legendary smarts and underrated defensive brilliance of Duran as well as his old fire and brimstone. Pavlik would have fired back with his brand of power and would have kept it close, but it would be not enough to defeat an inspired Duran, who no doubt would be fueled through all this by a sizable Latin crowd screaming the arena apart while their idol would rise to the occasion in a savage brawl. And by the way, I don't think Pavlik would deck Duran in this one, but would be put down briefly in the 8th or 9th. Duran W15 Pavlik.
Duran's stuff was as a light weight. Pavlik is a huge middle weight. I bet he is in the mid 170's on fight night. As good Duran was, he doesn't have the size or punch to keep Pavlik off or hurt him, and therein lies the problem for Duran. Based on what I have seen Pavlik has good stamina as well, so he won’t fade and give Duran a chance late. Best guess is Pavlik wins, maybe via TKO.