Official Prediction Thread: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao

This is actually really weird...

The poll has Floyd up 280-262-9, but vCash betting has it far wider:

http://www.boxingforum24.com/showthread.php?t=535551

74-57-41

25% of bettors are comfortable laying some on the draw at mere 18/1 odds (which for a draw is very stingy, most are twenty and up) but only 0.016% have voted on that outcome in the poll.

Pacquiao has a 33% share of betting, yet is neck and neck with Mayweather in the poll with a 47.5% share. That's despite a handsome 2/1 payout for Pacquiao and just 8/15 on Mayweather...

 

He's talking about the poll in this very thread, of which he is the OP.

Nothing to do with betting.

 

That's my interpretation as well.

 

:rofl:rofl:rofl

 

I think many people voted for a Floyd win because of the enormously stacked deck against him in this fight. With all the advantages Floyd has got it will be very hard for Manny to get a win atsch

 

Yeah but that doesn't explain why voting is super close while betting is more like a landslide. I think cuchulain hit the nail on the head.

 

If I hadn't lost all of my money on Wlad refusing to knock out jennings inside 10, this is how I would bet:

Fight ends in majority decision
Fight ends in split decision
Draw
Pacquiao by any decision
Small bet on Pacquiao by KO

Rationale:
Floyd is not the goddamn hulk like JMM. He's not getting a stoppage.

Manny could get a stoppage, but it's highly unlikely with Floyd's defense/chin/clinching/survival skills/size.

All parties involved have EVERY incentive to make this fight close/controversial, and both guys fight in a way that lends itself to judging bias. Both guys are often comfortable barely winning rounds. I anticipate a lot of swing rounds on the cards.

I think the styles have always favored Pacquiao, and I can't ignore Maidana winning 5-7 rounds. I can't stress enough that Maidana struggled with pretty much everyone he ever fought and was dominated by Alexander. Mayweather is clearly in decline, he has a ton of pressure, he's changing things up in camp, and he's accustomed to being the prohibitive favorite/more experienced fighter/clearly superior athlete. And even given all that, he hasn't looked good.

Manny has also seemed to decline, but I really think it's been a lack of interest. That will not be a problem here. He was lazy with JMM III/Bradley I, but he looked like a different fighter in JMM IV before running into that shot. I think he looked fine in Algieri/Rios/Bradley II.

So...overtraining/shock at having a real opponent gets to Mayweather, and Pacquiao rises to the occasion having wanted it for 5 years. Manny wins on two cards, Mayweatber the other, and 8 of the rounds are swing rounds on the cards. Both fighters go down once.

 

pac wins by ko 5th round.

 

The poll has been open for over two months now, pretty much since the announcement. I was sure it would get 1,000 respondents.

Unless there is a massive flood of latecomers, it won't end up getting even close. Barely past the halfway mark now.

 

Mmm, I have a feeling one of them will be discalified for biting his opponent's ear.

 

That's because it's a sticky. For some reason I have literally never read any of the stickies until today when I used my phone to log in.

Stickies are basically "ignore me" signs.

 

Floyd by knockout and this might be how:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fttZ4guzAaI

I have said for years it was Mayweather by decision but as the fight gets closer I think he's going to pick Pacquiao apart and not let the judges decide. This is too big to risk a loss for him. Knockout.