The value of fight prediction...

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015.


Page 2 of 4
  1. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006
    SENCHENKO VS. MALIGNAGGI OVER 9.5!!!!!!!!!!! :fire
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #16
  2. kirk

    kirk l l l Staff Member

    71,200
    28,091
    Jul 26, 2004
    IB so are you saying something along the lines of most people have the same fight picking abilities? (Sorry for my confusion)
     
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    #17
  3. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006
    In the same neighborhood, generally, when discussing "super-fans and experts". :nod
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #18
  4. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006
    The impetus for the subject, kirk, was people bringing up "LOLOL you picked so-and-so against so-and-so, u r dumb! :hi:" and how that's actually pretty stupid unless you can establish that someone gets them wrong at demonstrably higher a rate than most. Anecdotal examples here and there are meaningless and used frequently as childish taunts.
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #19
  5. Rumsfeld

    Rumsfeld Moderator Staff Member

    49,636
    16,329
    Jul 19, 2004
    Co-sign!

    The numbers don't lie, and the sample sizes are large enough that if you pick enough fights, you'll get plenty wrong.

    It just so happens that I get them wrong slightly more often than most.

    :smoke
     
    Rumsfeld, Jun 21, 2015
    Rumsfeld, Jun 21, 2015
    #20
  6. MysticalNinja

    MysticalNinja Active Member Full Member

    1,236
    0
    May 3, 2015
    Meh some fights I get spot on (Cotto vs Martinez, Porter vs Broner, Froch vs Groves II, Salido vs Lomachenko etc) and some I get badly wrong (Matthysse vs Garcia, N'Dam vs Lemieux).

    I don't to prediction mainly to boast about it (though i will rub it in) but because it's fun to do so. It's fun to be absolutely right but also fun to have a fight not quite go the way it was because of the discussion and banter you can have.

    I'll admit though, the greatest feeling is when you make a pick, majority pick something else and you have to defend yourself and you're right :D
     
    MysticalNinja, Jun 21, 2015
    MysticalNinja, Jun 21, 2015
    #21
  7. alexthegreatmc

    alexthegreatmc Sound logic and reason. You're welcome! Full Member

    39,120
    1,801
    Sep 10, 2013
    Should've said this the first time.
     
    alexthegreatmc, Jun 21, 2015
    alexthegreatmc, Jun 21, 2015
    #22
  8. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006
    In the OP you mean? I thought it was self-evident. :!:
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #23
  9. kirk

    kirk l l l Staff Member

    71,200
    28,091
    Jul 26, 2004
    Ah.

    Ya, nitpicking someones predictions here n there is borderline meaningless, the best have made really bad calls and the worst make some great ones.

    I do think theres gaps between boxingheads (hardcore fans) abilities to discern and thus predict the sport tho. Theres guys like david b, fighter2r and bladerunner who are constantly in the top 5 fight predictors... year in and year out. The evidence shows they are better at it then their competitors, on a consistent basis.

    I def see the levels and gaps of fight predicting, even amongst the hardcore.


    Singling you out is pretty moronic tho. Usually stones throne by those who dont have their own prediction history up for scrutiny. Everyones made bad calls.
     
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    #24
  10. Nonito Smoak

    Nonito Smoak Ioka>Lomo, sorry my dudes Full Member

    53,088
    6,686
    Sep 8, 2010
    It is true.

    So anyone claiming to be a God of boxing knowledge can show me their betting tickets or routinely advertise their picks for months straight.
     
    Nonito Smoak, Jun 21, 2015
    Nonito Smoak, Jun 21, 2015
    #25
  11. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006

    :good


    All the ":tong You got that one wrong! YDKSAB!" or "look at me! :D I got a close to 50-50 on paper type deal right!" stuff is just ludicrous.
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #26
  12. kirk

    kirk l l l Staff Member

    71,200
    28,091
    Jul 26, 2004
    Theres levels and gaps to fight calling, as there is in everything in life. The gaps might be small at the high level... but they are there and are fairly consistent.

    But calling out single examples is fairly lame and probably done by people who wouldnt want their own prediction history seen.
     
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    kirk, Jun 21, 2015
    #27
  13. IntentionalButt

    IntentionalButt Guy wants to name his çock 'macho' that's ok by me

    403,140
    85,005
    Nov 30, 2006
    That's more what I mean. Your average boxing fan is probably of a comparable level to whatever other average boxing fan they're calling out.

    Even someone with a more "expert" record in the eighties calling out someone in the normative 66-75% range is a bit silly, if they're doing so on the basis of a single pick on a fight that was competitive on paper...and you see lots of that in the mud-slinging wars on here.
     
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    IntentionalButt, Jun 21, 2015
    #28
  14. zoley

    zoley Active Member Full Member

    1,082
    98
    Jul 17, 2011
    My theory on fight predictions is pretty simple.
    I go to the Boxrec site and in the schedule i pick the fighter in the left hand column.
    Only a poor sample but out of 30 fights in the USA over the weekend, Boxrec
    had a 90% strike rate. 1 loss and 2 draws. 27 correct.
    I don't bet on fights because the odds in fights are so poor. The favorite more often than not usually returns $105.00 to $115.00 for a $100.00 investment.
     
    zoley, Jun 21, 2015
    zoley, Jun 21, 2015
    #29
  15. OvidsExile

    OvidsExile At a minimum, a huckleberry over your persimmon. Full Member

    35,542
    38,513
    Aug 28, 2012
    I've been wrong too many times to count now. It's not so much humbling as infuriating. The worst ones are the major upsets, when everybody who knows anything is picking the same guy I am, and it should be a sure thing, then we all come out looking like stupid assholes.

    I take it as a learning experience. Getting older. Hopefully, I'm also getting wiser, though on the off days it certainly doesn't feel that way.
     
    OvidsExile, Jun 22, 2015
    OvidsExile, Jun 22, 2015
    #30
Page 2 of 4